Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has caused significant regret among dollar holders, as the offshore RMB exchange rate has surged to a new high since November of the previous year, reaching 7.16 [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The RMB's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, which has diminished the dollar's attractiveness [5]. - China's economy has shown robust resilience, with favorable foreign trade data and a significant increase in trade surplus, leading to strong demand for currency exchange [5]. - Continuous inflow of foreign capital into the A-share market has further supported the RMB, as foreign investors convert dollars to RMB for investment [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The People's Bank of China's subtle policy adjustments have effectively guided market sentiment, with the central parity rate of the RMB being raised multiple times, signaling stability [3]. - Market reactions have been swift, with the onshore and offshore RMB rates showing a narrowing price gap, indicating strong buying interest [3]. - Most institutions predict that the RMB will maintain its strength in the second half of the year, with a trading range expected between 7.1 and 7.2, although unforeseen events could lead to volatility [9]. Group 3: Impacts of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB benefits outbound travelers and online shoppers, as they can save significantly on expenses when converting currency [8]. - Conversely, export-oriented companies face pressure as clients demand lower prices, leading to reduced profit margins [8].

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to significant volatility in global financial markets, particularly affecting the gold market and international exchange rates, with next week's trends being highly uncertain [1] Group 1: Impact on Gold Market - Geopolitical conflicts are major drivers of gold price fluctuations, with gold being regarded as the "king of safe-haven assets" [3] - Historical instances, such as the post-9/11 period and the U.S.-Iran conflict in early 2020, show that gold prices can surge significantly during crises, with increases exceeding 20% in some cases [3] - If the U.S. bombs Iran, a strong upward trend in gold prices is likely due to heightened war risks and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - War typically raises inflation expectations, which could further enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation, leading to increased investment in gold [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices are also influenced by the U.S. dollar exchange rate, global economic growth expectations, and central bank monetary policies [4] - A strong dollar usually suppresses gold prices, while a weak dollar supports them; however, military actions may initially boost the dollar due to safe-haven flows, creating short-term pressure on gold [4] - Long-term economic uncertainty and inflation pressures from military actions could weaken the dollar's attractiveness, leading to a potential return of funds to the gold market [4] Group 3: Impact on International Exchange Rates - The U.S. bombing of Iran is expected to create significant turbulence in the foreign exchange market, with the dollar likely experiencing a temporary surge due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Historical trends, such as during the Gulf War, indicate that the dollar index may rise during crises, but prolonged military spending and economic uncertainty could negatively impact the dollar's long-term stability [5] - The euro may face pressure due to potential disruptions in trade with the Middle East, while the yen could attract safe-haven flows but may be limited by rising import costs from increased oil prices [6] - Emerging market currencies are likely to face greater pressure, with potential capital outflows leading to currency depreciation and stock market declines [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar has appreciated by 3.5% against the US dollar in the second quarter, driven by rising oil prices and negative sentiment towards the US dollar, despite domestic economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Domestic demand in Canada is weak, and the unemployment rate is rising, which casts a shadow over the outlook for the Canadian dollar [1] - The Canadian bank anticipates that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates in July, contrary to current expectations, which may weaken the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2: Political and Market Dynamics - The recent throne speech in Ottawa marks a departure from the practices of the Trudeau era, making Canada more attractive for private capital [1] - The Canadian bank projects that the USD/CAD exchange rate will peak at 1.38 before trending towards 1.34 [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped significantly by 7.9 basis points, reaching a low of below 4.3750% due to the ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing index causing notable downward trends [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell approximately 7.0 basis points, hitting a low of below 3.88% [1] - The U.S. dollar depreciated against the Japanese yen by 0.5%, trading at 143.25, and against the Swiss franc by 0.5%, trading at 0.8192 [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index's gain narrowed to 0.1%, while the Nasdaq 100 index turned negative [1] - Emerging market currency index reached a new daily high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in exchange rates, particularly focusing on the strengthening of the RMB against the USD and the implications of these changes in the context of geopolitical and economic shifts [1][3]. Group 1: Three Confusions Regarding RMB Exchange Rate - The first confusion is that despite advancements in China's manufacturing technology and productivity, the actual RMB exchange rate has depreciated significantly since 2022, contradicting the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis (BSH) [3][7]. - The second confusion highlights the historical divergence between the nominal effective exchange rate and the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB, which has reached unprecedented levels since 2022 [8][18]. - The third confusion points out that the depreciation of the RMB against the USD has been less than that of other currencies from China's trading partners, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting exchange rates [10][21]. Group 2: Analysis of the First Confusion - The limitations of the BSH are discussed, emphasizing that the hypothesis does not account for prolonged demand deficiencies, which can prevent price increases despite productivity gains [11][16]. - The article argues that the BSH primarily focuses on supply-side factors while neglecting the financial perspective, which can also influence the actual exchange rate [16][18]. Group 3: Analysis of the Second Confusion - The divergence between the nominal and actual effective exchange rates reflects a significant widening of the inflation gap between China and its trading partners, with China's inflation remaining low while that of major partners has increased [18][19]. - The article notes that China's inflation has been declining, with CPI growth averaging 0.2% from 2023 to 2024, contrasting sharply with the higher inflation rates in the US and other trading partners [19][20]. Group 4: Analysis of the Third Confusion - The RMB's depreciation against the USD has been less severe compared to the depreciation of currencies from other trading partners, suggesting that the current account has provided some support to the RMB [21][23]. - The article highlights that from January 2021 to April 2025, the RMB depreciated by 12% against the USD, while other currencies like the Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar experienced much larger depreciations [22][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - In the short term, there may be room for the RMB to appreciate against the USD, especially if the USD faces downward pressure due to fiscal and trade deficits [5][43]. - The article suggests that if the accumulated current account surplus is converted into RMB more rapidly, it could further support the RMB's appreciation [44][50]. - The analysis indicates that the RMB may have upward potential by the end of the year, driven by a weaker USD and supportive domestic factors [51][53].

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智通财经5月29日电，美元兑避险货币瑞郎上涨0.4%，美元兑日元上涨0.4%，此前美国一法院阻止特朗 普关税生效。 ...

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美元兑其他货币延续跌势，澳元兑美元日内涨0.6%。 ...