新华社伦敦1月8日电（记者赵小娜）哈佛大学经济学教授、国际货币基金组织（IMF）前第一副总裁吉 塔·戈皮纳特日前在英国《金融时报》撰文指出，当前全球经济表面上的"稳定"具有明显迷惑性，关税 带来的结构性损害正在被多重短期因素掩盖。随着提前进口效应减弱、企业加速向消费者转嫁成本，相 关负面影响将在2026年更加清晰显现。文章摘要如下： 2025年，美国将关税水平提高至近一个世纪以来的高位，全球政策不确定性显著上升。尽管如此，有国 际机构预计全球经济增长3.2%，与此前预测几乎一致。这容易令人误判，认为关税战和政策混乱并未 对全球经济造成实质性冲击。 关税成本中约95%由美国企业承担，只有一部分转嫁给消费者，但正是这"一部分"对宏观经济产生实质 影响。仅关税因素就推高了美国通胀率约0.7个百分点，偏离了美联储2%的目标。同时，关税已使美国 家庭实际收入平均减少约600美元。 另外，两方面因素在短期内对冲了关税的负面影响：人工智能（AI）投资热潮及其带动的股市上涨， 以及美、德等国采取更为扩张性的财政政策。这些在一定程度上掩盖了关税措施对全球经济的冲击，使 经济形势看上去比实际更为稳固。 不过，这种状态本身极为脆弱 ...

对于2026年全球经济增速小幅放缓至3%左右的主流预测，夏春表示，总体契合预期。"最近几年，世界 银行、IMF的全球预测与最终结果相对稳健。" 他进一步拆解，全球经济的上行动力主要来自两方面。一是全球化仍在深化，新兴市场与"一带一路"倡 议持续发力；若中美关系缓和，中国内需政策红利将进一步带动全球经济联动，美元走软也会利好新兴 市场。二是人工智能应用进入企业端落地期，从过去拼算力、拼数据中心，进入到企业端的应用，这将 在全球带来一波上行动力。 中经记者 张漫游 北京报道 2026 年已至，全球经济站在了新的十字路口。2022年以后，地缘政治、产业变革与流动性调整多重因 素交织，投资者该如何找准方向？ 日前，在《中国经营报》零观财经栏目中，《中国经营报》记者采访了智汇集团创始人及首席经济学家 夏春。他认为，2026 年全球经济增速将符合主流机构预测的3%左右，呈现"上行动力与下行压力并 存"的新常态。其中，上行动力来自全球化深化与AI企业端落地，下行压力则源于全球债务扩张与少子 老龄化。夏春提醒称，投资者要摒弃单一资产集中配置的习惯，以低风险为核心做资产组合，才能穿越 市场波动实现长期增值。 全球经济：上行动力 ...

智通财经记者 | 张一诺 世界经济在即将过去的2025年呈现出"弱复苏+强不确定性"的格局，站在岁末展望，智通财经采集了多家机构的预测显 示，2026年全球经济的核心特征是"增速放缓但未衰退，分化加剧且韧性不均"。 预测普遍认为，2026年全球经济可能温和增长3%左右，区域深度分化，美国凭借人工智能（AI）优势维持相对韧性， 亚洲新兴经济体领跑增长，而欧洲、拉美部分国家则面临结构性增长困境。通胀整体回落但区域分化明显，全球货币政 策逐步告别高利率时代，但政策节奏存在显著分歧。 AI革命与能源转型是2026年海外经济最确定的增长引擎，AI从资本开支期迈向应用验证期，能源转型进入从补充能源 到主体能源的临界转折点，二者共同推动全球经济向数字化、绿色化转型。 与此同时，全球经济仍面临多重风险挑战，包括高债务与高利率的双重挤压、地缘政治与贸易冲突升级、气候与能源转 型冲击、科技与监管不确定性，这些风险相互交织，可能放大经济波动，制约增长潜力。 全球经济温和放缓与深度分化并存 招银国际预计，美国GDP增速从2025年的1.9%降至2026年的1.8%，明年上半年，因关税冲击消退、减税刺激和货币宽 松提振，GDP增速会有 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that global trade is expected to exceed $35 trillion for the first time this year, with an increase of approximately $2.2 trillion compared to last year, representing a growth rate of about 7% [1] - The growth in global merchandise trade is projected to be around $1.5 trillion, while service trade is expected to grow by $750 billion, with respective growth rates of 6.3% and 8.8% compared to 2024 [1] - UNCTAD's report indicates that manufacturing, particularly in electronics, is leading the growth in global trade, while the energy and automotive sectors are experiencing relatively weak growth [2] Group 2 - The "Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index" from UNCTAD has surpassed 500, reaching a 20-year high, indicating significant uncertainty in trade policies due to the U.S. government's fluctuating tariff policies [2] - The World Bank reports that global trade policy uncertainty has reached a historical peak since 2000, which has led many companies to expedite shipments to avoid tariff risks, thereby depleting future demand [2] - The forecast for global goods trade growth has declined, with a predicted increase of only 0.6% in the fourth quarter of this year, following a peak growth rate of 3.6% in the second quarter [2] Group 3 - UNCTAD predicts that by 2033, the global AI market size will surge from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion, with a growth rate of 25 times over the next decade [3] - AI is expected to significantly enhance global trade and GDP growth, with trade potentially increasing by 34% to 37% and GDP growing by 12% to 13% by 2040, depending on policy and technological advancements [3] - The World Bank warns of the risks of imbalanced AI development, particularly affecting the economic transformation of developing countries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy has shown unexpected resilience in 2025, with trade volumes increasing despite initial pessimistic forecasts due to trade tensions and inflation concerns [2][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - By the end of 2025, China's total import and export volume reached 37.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.6% increase compared to the previous year [6]. - China's share in global trade rose to approximately 15%, indicating a strengthening position in the international market [11]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics - China has shifted its trade focus towards emerging markets such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, which have shown greater demand elasticity, thus supporting trade growth [8][11]. - The adjustment in trade strategy is not merely a replacement but has resulted in new growth increments [11]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The release of the R1 model by DeepSeek signifies China's capability to advance in technology, challenging the dominance of a few countries in the field of large models [13]. - International investment institutions, including Goldman Sachs, are reassessing Chinese assets based on technological progress, influenced by the contrasting economic conditions between the U.S. and China [13][15]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Domestic consumption accounts for less than 40% of GDP, significantly lower than the global average of 55%, indicating weak internal demand [17]. - The income distribution structure in China is imbalanced, with households receiving only 60.6% of national income, which is below the global average, affecting consumer spending [19][21]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Short-term measures like trade-in programs have temporarily boosted sales but are not sustainable for long-term structural change [23]. - A focus on improving income distribution mechanisms is essential, particularly for workers in small and medium enterprises, to enhance consumer spending capacity [23][25].

所以，我的观点是：大宗商品市场的"三国演义"，正在清晰地勾勒一幅"弱现实、强博弈、寻方向"的全 球经济图景。 传统增长引擎（油、铜）动力不足，而避险和抗通胀的资产（金）在默默构筑防线。这 对于我们A股投资者来说，是一个重要的宏观背景板。 那么，策略上我们应该如何应对？我的建议是三个关键词：顺势、避锋、观察。 第一， "顺势" ，就是关注原油等上游成本下降带来的潜在机会。化工产业链的中下游、交通运输等板 块，可能会因为成本压力缓解而迎来利润修复的窗口期，这里面有值得挖掘的阿尔法机会。 朋友们，如果让你用一种颜色来形容当前的经济，你会选什么？我想很多人会选择"灰蒙蒙"的。今天早 上看到大宗商品市场的走势，这种感觉就更明显了。被称为"工业血液"的原油，价格跌到了三年多来的 低点；被誉为"经济筋骨"的铜，也显露疲态；而唯独被称为"避险铠甲"的黄金，稳稳地站在高位。这三 样东西，它们本应同频共振，现在却走出了"分家"的行情。这"三国演义"的背后，到底在诉说什么样的 经济故事？对我们A股投资者又意味着什么？咱们一起来盘一盘。 咱们先看跌得最显眼的"老大哥"——原油。WTI原油价格盘中一度跌破了每桶55美元，这个价格是20 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are primarily aimed at addressing domestic issues in the U.S., such as weak employment data, but these cuts will also have significant impacts on the global economy, including Chinese enterprises and individuals [1] - The continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve present both opportunities and risks for Chinese enterprises, as global financing costs will decrease, benefiting those with existing dollar-denominated debts [2] - A weaker dollar following the Fed's rate cuts will affect import and export enterprises differently; for importers using RMB, costs may decrease, while exporters using USD may face increased prices, potentially reducing competitiveness, especially in labor-intensive sectors like textiles and home appliances [4] Group 2 - For individuals in China, the most significant impacts will be felt in the areas of finance and consumption; a weaker dollar may lead to a relative appreciation of the RMB, reducing costs for studying abroad and overseas travel, potentially saving families thousands in tuition fees [5] - The cost of imported consumer goods may also decrease, allowing for better prices on overseas products; however, the interest rates on dollar deposits and related financial products will likely decline due to the Fed's actions [5] - The rate cuts may trigger a shift of international capital from dollar assets to emerging markets, including China's bond and stock markets, while typically leading to higher gold prices, although caution is advised due to current high gold prices [5]

一方面，需求侧动力不足，全球需求疲弱、消费与投资复苏乏力。报告指出，许多经济体国内支出低 迷，家庭购买力承压，尤其是高利率正在压制经济活动与国内需求，成为导致需求走弱、增长疲软的重 要原因，需求受到压制进一步导致全球制造业疲软且全球贸易动能不足。需求无法自发恢复，是增长缺 乏内生动力的首要原因。 另一方面，投资动力不足，主要体现为私人投资与固定资本形成偏弱。固定投资的疲软以及私人部门投 资的低迷，导致企业受高融资成本、盈利前景不确定性影响，没有恢复扩张意愿，普遍推迟资本支出。 经济体缺少推动下一轮增长的投资来源，长期增长潜力被侵蚀。 日前，联合国贸易和发展会议(贸发会议)发布《2025年度贸易与发展报告》指出，2024年至2025年，全 球经济处于"脆弱韧性"状态，具体表现为表面稳定，但结构疲弱且风险积聚，看似未出现全面衰退，但 恢复力量弱、质量差、易被外部冲击影响。预计2025年全球经济增速将放缓至2.6%，低于2024年的 2.9%。 报告指出，尽管数据并未显示深度衰退，但在全球需求不振、私人投资疲弱、制造业周期低迷、发达经 济体低增长向全球传导等因素的共同作用下，全球增长正从疲弱转为更低的下滑轨道。 此 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is projected to grow at 3.2% in 2025 and slightly decrease to 3.1% in 2026, demonstrating resilience despite challenges such as tariff impacts [3][5] - Three main factors supporting this economic resilience include sustained consumer spending in the U.S., the driving force of the AI wave, and various economic stimulus policies implemented by countries [3][5][7] - U.S. consumer spending has been bolstered by companies absorbing some tariff costs, preventing a significant decline in global trade [3][5] Group 2 - Despite positive growth figures, underlying vulnerabilities and uncertainties persist, such as the anticipated decline in U.S. consumer spending due to reduced excess savings and the gradual impact of tariffs [9][11] - High global debt levels pose a significant risk, with governments, businesses, and households facing substantial debt burdens, leading to potential defaults in some European countries [11][13] - The dependency on stimulus policies may create a vicious cycle, increasing economic fragility as countries rely more on these measures to sustain growth [13][14] Group 3 - The AI wave has emerged as a significant variable influencing the macroeconomy, with high capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies driving growth in related industries [16][18] - However, concerns about potential bubbles in AI investments are rising, with over half of investors believing there is a bubble, while power supply issues for AI infrastructure could lead to adjustments in tech stocks [18][20] - Long-term structural trends include a shift from globalization to regionalization, the potential return of "American exceptionalism," and the realization of Trump's policy intentions, which may reshape international trade dynamics [21][23][25]

经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）2日发布最新经济展望报告，预计今明两年全球经济增速分别为3.2% 和2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。报告指出，今年全球经济韧性超出预期，但仍面临贸易壁垒、人工智能 泡沫和财政脆弱性等风险。 报告预计，受到加征关税、私人消费放缓及联邦政府"停摆"影响，美国经济增速将由2024年的2.8%降至 2025年的2.0%，并在2026年进一步放缓至1.7%；2025年和2026年，欧元区经济预计将增长1.3%和 1.2%。 报告还认为，美国当前财政政策路径不可持续，减少巨额赤字是当务之急。此外，美国标普500股票指 数周期调整市盈率接近历史高位，股市大幅调整风险较高。 报告强调，各国应努力缓解贸易紧张局势，减少政策不确定性，抑制通货膨胀，应对金融风险，推进改 革以提升生产率。经合组织秘书长马赛厄斯·科尔曼表示，各国开展建设性对话是持久缓解贸易紧张、 改善全球经济前景的关键。全球市场保持开放且运行顺畅，有助于提升民众生活水平，促进经济增长。 (家电网® HEA.CN) 报告认为，扩张性的宏观政策导向、市场对新技术的积极预期，以及人工智能相关领域带动的贸易和投 资增长，共同支撑了全球需求。报告同 ...