Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant economic pain in the U.S. due to the implementation of tariffs, with economists warning of a potential long-term erosion of the economy rather than an immediate collapse [1][2] - The tariffs, effective from August 7, have already begun to show detrimental effects on the U.S. economy, with reports indicating stagnation in job growth and rising inflation pressures since the introduction of the tariffs in April [1][2] - The uncertainty created by the tariffs is affecting both consumers and businesses, leading to a slowdown in economic activity, as noted by experts who compare the situation to sand in gears, gradually impeding the economy [2] Group 2 - The tariffs have led to a significant increase in costs for nearly all goods entering the U.S., disrupting the global trade landscape and potentially leading to further inflation and reduced economic growth [2] - Despite the current domestic impact being milder than expected, evidence suggests that the tariffs are slowly re-triggering inflation and dragging down U.S. economic growth rates [2]

表：美国就业市场波动为美联 工人们在美国华盛顿州瓦帕托的一个农场包装玉米。 摄影师：Emree Weaver/Bloomberq 文斯·戈尔和莫莉·史密斯 2025年8月2日下午5:00 GMT+8 员 节省 C 明 5:15 今年上半年经济增长放缓后,美国劳动力市场出现波动--这是贸易政 策不确定性加剧的影响。 唐纳德·特朗普总统公布了一系列新关税,提高了美国对全球商品的平 均税率,进一步推进其重塑国际贸易和提振美国制造业的努力。许多 贸易伙伴的基准税率与特朗普4月份征收的关税相比. 仍维持在10%不 变。 就业市场低迷的迹象,以及进口关税上调导致通胀再次加速的风险, 是美联储官员在利率路径上产生分歧的两大因素。受上周五疲软就业 报告的影响,美国国债收益率下跌,因市场押注美联储最早将于9月降 息,而本周美国国债收益率维持不变。 加拿大央行维持利率不变,但如果经济走弱且通胀压力得到控制,则 可能进一步降息。日本央行也维持借贷成本不变。 以下是彭博社本周发布的有关全球经济、市场和地缘政治最新动态的 一些图表: 我们 过去三个月美国劳动力市场急剧放缓 5 月和 6 月的数据被下调了近 26 万个就业岗位 ■ Ch ...

澳洲联储主席布洛克：全球经济仍存在不确定性和不可预测性。 ...

新西兰联储首席经济学家：关税将导致全球经济和全球需求疲软。 ...

日本首相石破茂：预计日美贸易协议将为全球经济做出贡献。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that global investment, manufacturing employment, spending, and overall economic activity remain robust despite uncertainties and challenges [2] - Global trade remains active, indicating the persistence and importance of international trade, with significant rebounds in stock markets across the Atlantic [2] - Moody's analysis suggests that the outcome of Japan's Senate elections may hinder the government's efforts to advance fiscal consolidation in the post-pandemic era [2] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank strategists warn that if the US confirms tariff increases on August 1 alongside disappointing employment reports, it could trigger renewed recession fears [3] - Concerns over the sustainability of US debt may become a central topic of discussion in the market for the second half of the year, with long-term Treasury yields facing upward pressure [3] - Current 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by 2 basis points to 4.392% [3]

Group 1 - The 16th Summer Davos Forum was held in Tianjin from June 24 to June 26, focusing on the theme of "Entrepreneurial Spirit in the New Era" and discussing five main topics including global economy, China's outlook, and new energy [1][2] - 60% of this year's global GDP growth is attributed to contributions from Asian economies, highlighting China's significant impact on the global economy [1] - The forum emphasized the importance of "China and the World" as a focal topic, with discussions on how China's high-quality development can drive global economic recovery and growth [1] Group 2 - Attendees expressed high interest in China's advancements in cutting-edge technologies such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, indicating a desire for deeper collaboration in innovation [2] - A German investment company's representative expressed confidence in increasing investments in China, particularly in new product and technology development, with a specific investment of $500 million in the Greater Bay Area for a manufacturing base [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy, and market sentiment, indicating a potential bullish trend in the long term despite short-term volatility [1][3][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On June 23, gold opened over $20 higher but later fell, reaching a low of $3347.10 before recovering slightly to close at $3368.96, reflecting a daily fluctuation of $48.78 [1][3]. - The price was initially supported by geopolitical tensions but faced resistance due to profit-taking and comments from President Trump regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Iran [1][3]. - The outlook for June 24 suggests continued volatility, with gold prices expected to test previous lows while being supported by a declining U.S. dollar index [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Central Bank Policies - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. current account and consumer confidence index, are anticipated to positively impact gold prices [5]. - The article highlights that the market's focus is shifting back to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economic impact of tariffs, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts later in the year [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of prices potentially exceeding $4000 in the next year due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [6][7]. - The technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a bullish trend, supported by moving averages, although there are concerns about a potential peak in the near term [9][11].

Group 1: Global Economic Challenges - The global economy is facing significant challenges, including rising protectionism, unilateralism, and trade barriers, leading to a serious backlash against globalization [2][3] - The World Bank has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%, with nearly 70% of economies experiencing a reduction in growth rates [2] - The UN Conference on Trade and Development reported an 11% decline in global foreign direct investment for 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline [2] Group 2: China's Role in Global Economy - Amid global economic uncertainties, China is providing more opportunities through its development and high-level openness, becoming a stabilizing force in the international landscape [4] - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, surpassing many forecasts, with key economic indicators like industrial output and retail sales showing steady growth [4] - China's total import and export value reached 43.85 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5% increase year-on-year, solidifying its position as the world's largest trading nation [4] Group 3: International Cooperation and Future Outlook - The World Economic Forum emphasizes the urgency of effective global cooperation in light of deepening geopolitical and economic divides [7] - The forum's agenda includes critical topics such as global economic interpretation, China's outlook, industry changes, and sustainable energy, addressing pressing global concerns [7] - Historical trends show that economic globalization has led to significant advancements, and the future requires countries to embrace openness and cooperation for mutual benefit [8]

市场分析师Shawn Donnan表示，到目前为止，伊朗的初步反应可能是有限的。但这再次提醒人们，这 场冲突可能会以多种不同的方式打击石油以外的全球经济。导弹发射导致卡塔尔和阿联酋领空关闭，飞 往多哈和迪拜的商业航班中断。这是暂时的预防措施，如果是一次性的，事情很快就会恢复正常。但这 两个海湾国家是主要航空枢纽的所在地，如果在接下来的夏天发生这样的事件，将造成重大破坏。这不 是已经在应对关税和微薄利润影响的全球航空公司想要的。(新浪财经) ...