A. 恐慌抛售怕被套牢 B. 逢低加仓期待反弹 C. 不知所措观望等待 亲爱的鹏友们： 展信佳！第二封信我们初步认识了"牛市也会有回撤"。 我们回归到实战操作，当你的持仓市值一周内回落 15%，你会： 正确答案取决于：这到底是上涨路途的中场休息，还是盛宴结束？ 识别市场位置需要跳出情 绪干扰，借助成体系的指标工具进行理性诊断。今天，我们将以 A 股历史为参照， 分析各指标工具和市场表现的关系，帮助大家在波动行情中找到自己的锚点。 估值信号灯：低买高卖的标尺 市盈率（PE）分位数是判断市场估值水位的常用指标。2007 年全市场 PE 突破 70 倍（历史分位数 98%）， 2015 年创业板 PE 达 145 倍（分位数 99%），均构成显著泡沫特征。 我们可根据指数的估值历史百分位划分状态，再根据估值状态来辅助决定买入、持有或卖出。比如： 低于25%——低估 介于25%和75%之间——适中 高于75%——高估 当前数据：全 A 指数 PE18 倍，处于近十年 34% 分位，沪深 300 指数 PE12 倍（分位数 39%），中证 500 指 数 PE27 倍（分位数 39%），整体估值处于适中区间，未现系统性 ...

九鼎投资融资融券信息显示，融资方面，当日融资买入2146.36万元，融资偿还2327.24万元，融资净偿 还180.88万元。融券方面，融券卖出0.0股，融券偿还0.0股，融券余量1000.0股，融券余额1.4万元。融 资融券余额1.2亿元。 近5日融资融券数据一览见下表： 证券之星消息，截至2025年4月25日收盘，九鼎投资(600053)报收于13.96元，上涨5.44%，换手率 6.0%，成交量26.01万手，成交额3.69亿元。 4月25日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流入1.27亿元，占总成交额34.43%，游资资金净流出6274.73 万元，占总成交额17.0%，散户资金净流出6434.54万元，占总成交额17.43%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： | | | | | 日期 收盘价 涨跌幅 主力净流入 主力净占比 游资净占比 散户净流入 散户净占比 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-04-25 | 13.96 | 5.44% | 1.27亿 | 34.43% | -6274.73万 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Tian Shun Co., Ltd. (002800) reported a closing price of 12.29 yuan on April 25, 2025, with a 3.02% increase, indicating positive market sentiment despite mixed fund flows [1] Fund Flow Summary - On April 25, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 14.87 million yuan, accounting for 6.71% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 8.69 million yuan, representing 3.92% of the total [1][2] - Over the past five days, the stock has seen fluctuating fund flows, with notable net inflows and outflows from different investor categories [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, Tian Shun Co., Ltd. reported a main revenue of 246 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.32%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 million yuan, a decline of 49.48% [3] - The company’s gross profit margin stood at 5.1%, significantly lower than the industry average of 15.1%, indicating potential challenges in profitability [3] - Key financial metrics include a total market value of 1.87 billion yuan, a net asset value of 529 million yuan, and a debt ratio of 55.41% [3] Industry Comparison - Tian Shun Co., Ltd. ranks below industry averages in several key metrics, including net profit, price-to-earnings ratio (241.8 vs. industry average of 40.14), and return on equity (0.37% vs. industry average of 2.82%) [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07% on April 25, with 21 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by utilities and communications, which increased by 1.36% and 1.15% respectively [1] - The electronic sector rose by 0.43% [1] - The real estate and coal sectors experienced the largest declines, falling by 0.60% and 0.59% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 4.975 billion yuan, with 14 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The computer sector had the highest net inflow, totaling 3.368 billion yuan, while the utilities sector followed with a net inflow of 1.581 billion yuan [1] - A total of 17 sectors experienced net outflows, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading with a net outflow of 942 million yuan, followed closely by the basic chemicals sector with 930 million yuan [1] Electronic Sector Performance - The electronic sector saw a net inflow of 1.568 billion yuan, with 272 out of 461 stocks rising, including 5 hitting the daily limit [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Huadian Co. (4.37 billion yuan), Luxshare Precision (2.83 billion yuan), and Dongshan Precision (1.73 billion yuan) [2] - Six stocks in the electronic sector experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the largest outflows from SMIC (246 million yuan), Xilong Science (190 million yuan), and Shengbang Co. (122 million yuan) [2][3] Electronic Sector Capital Inflow and Outflow Rankings - The top inflow stocks included: - Huadian Co. (5.72% increase, 436.55 million yuan inflow) - Luxshare Precision (2.76% increase, 283.40 million yuan inflow) - Dongshan Precision (3.48% increase, 173.16 million yuan inflow) [2] - The top outflow stocks included: - SMIC (-0.76% decrease, -246.14 million yuan outflow) - Xilong Science (-2.04% decrease, -190.37 million yuan outflow) - Shengbang Co. (-8.27% decrease, -121.81 million yuan outflow) [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Tongyuan Petroleum's current market performance, including its stock price decline and financial metrics [1][2] - As of April 24, Tongyuan Petroleum's closing stock price was 3.91 yuan, down 1.76%, with a rolling PE ratio of 41.35 times and a total market capitalization of 2.301 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio in the extraction industry is 26.87 times, with a median of 35.64 times, placing Tongyuan Petroleum at the 16th position within the industry [1][2] Group 2 - In terms of capital flow, on April 24, Tongyuan Petroleum experienced a net outflow of 10.372 million yuan, although it had a total inflow of 25.4018 million yuan over the past five days [1] - The company specializes in providing comprehensive solutions and technical services for oil and gas field development, with its main products being perforation sales and other oilfield services [1] - For the latest fiscal year 2024, the company reported an operating income of 1.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.21%, and a net profit of 55.6468 million yuan, up 10.67%, with a sales gross margin of 28.63% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. market experienced a simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and currencies, raising questions about whether the A-share market can attract capital inflows [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell significantly, dropping over 1% and reaching a new low since March 2022, while gold prices surged nearly 2%, surpassing $3,400 per ounce for the first time [2][4] - Historical trends indicate an inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and gold, with a weak dollar leading to strong gold performance, prompting investors to shift from dollars to gold assets [4] Group 2 - As the dollar weakens and U.S. stocks fluctuate, international funds are increasingly moving into the gold market for safety, while central banks continue to increase their gold holdings [4] - The capacity of the gold market is limited, necessitating the search for new investment avenues, making the Hong Kong and A-share markets attractive due to their valuation advantages and stability [4] - If U.S. stocks continue to weaken, foreign capital is likely to accelerate its exit, while a depreciating dollar may enhance the appeal of Chinese stocks, presenting significant opportunities for the A-share market [4] Group 3 - Data analysis reveals that approximately 800 stocks are currently under institutional control, indicating active management despite a generally pessimistic market sentiment [6][8] - Institutional trading is characterized by sustainability, scale, and regularity, with data-driven insights providing a clearer picture of market dynamics compared to subjective judgments [9] - The trading behavior of institutions can be tracked through a "grading zone" system, where frequent trading indicates active management, and fluctuations between certain zones suggest successful control of stock prices [11] Group 4 - A specific case study of "Shuanglin Co." shows a 124% increase over 81 trading days, despite a 20% drop during 17 days, indicating that institutions may manipulate stock prices to drive out retail investors [13][14] - The number of stocks in initial control status remains high, suggesting a sustained interest from institutional investors in managing stock prices [15]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic stock indices showed mixed performance last week, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, and SSE Composite Index rising by 0.59%, 1.45%, and 1.19% respectively, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index fell by -0.37%, -0.52%, and -0.64% respectively [2][9] - The style indices also exhibited mixed results, with financial, cyclical, consumer, growth, and stability style indices changing by 2.76%, 0.35%, -0.05%, -0.54%, and 1.10% respectively [2][9] - The trading volume of the comprehensive ETF last week was 1014.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 1255.55 billion yuan from the previous week [27] Group 2: ETF Performance - Among the 32 thematic ETFs, the average weekly change was -0.10%, with large-cap style ETFs averaging a weekly change of 1.14% and small-cap style ETFs averaging -1.04% [3][28] - The top three performing comprehensive ETFs were the 50ETF, 300ETF, and another 300ETF, with changes of 1.61%, 0.86%, and 0.80% respectively, while the bottom three were ChiNext, 1000ETF, and 500ETF, with changes of -0.74%, -0.47%, and -0.41% respectively [4][32] - In the thematic ETFs, the top performers were the banking ETF, real estate ETF, and financial ETF, with changes of 4.03%, 3.25%, and 2.92% respectively [32] Group 3: Fund Flows - The comprehensive ETFs continued to see inflows, particularly in the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, indicating ongoing support for these weighted indices [32] - In the thematic sectors, there was notable inflow into banking, real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy by investors [32] Group 4: Bond and Commodity Markets - In the bond market, the Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bonds fell by -0.43%, while the pure bond indices showed slight increases of 0.02%, 0.06%, and 0.08% for government, corporate, and local government bonds respectively [16][17] - The commodity market showed mixed results, with the Nanhua precious metals index, CRB commodity index, and CRB poultry spot changing by 3.64%, 2.05%, and 1.88% respectively [19][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrasting behaviors of different capital flows in response to recent tariff policies, with southbound funds maintaining a high-risk appetite while overseas funds exhibit stronger risk aversion [2][4][17] Group 2 - Southbound funds showed a significant increase in daily trading volume and net purchases during the first week after the announcement of "counter-tariffs," but this trend sharply declined in the following week [2][10] - The investment style of southbound funds indicates a preference for growth stocks, particularly in the semiconductor and discretionary consumption sectors, which have seen continuous increases in allocation [2][10] - The allocation ratios for growth stocks are currently at 1.86% and -4.06%, placing them in the 96.3% and 100.0% percentiles since 2022, respectively [2][10] Group 3 - Overseas capital has shown a trend of net outflows from both active and passive foreign investments in the A-share market, with a total outflow of $19.4 billion and $57.5 billion over two weeks [4][17] - The passive foreign capital outflow reached $52.5 billion in the last week, marking the largest outflow in the past six months [4][17] Group 4 - The core ETFs in the A-share market, particularly the CSI 300 ETFs, have experienced significant net inflows, indicating strong support for the market [5][20] - Since the announcement of "counter-tariffs," the cumulative net inflow into these ETFs has shown a noticeable increase, reflecting a faster pace of capital entry into the market [5][20] Group 5 - The southbound capital's net purchases for the week of April 14-18 amounted to HKD 232 million, a decrease of HKD 590 million from the previous week [24] - Key stocks with significant net purchases included Alibaba (HKD 105.82 million), Tencent (HKD 68.46 million), and Meituan (HKD 39.12 million) [24]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.15% on April 15, with 12 sectors experiencing gains, led by the beauty and personal care sector at 2.27% and the banking sector at 1.50% [1] - The home appliance sector ranked third in terms of gains for the day [1] - Conversely, the defense and military industry and retail sector saw declines of 1.78% and 1.37%, respectively [1] Capital Flow - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 19.301 billion yuan across both markets, with 11 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The media sector led the net inflow with 800.2 million yuan and a daily increase of 0.96%, followed by the banking sector with a net inflow of 780 million yuan and a daily increase of 1.50% [1] - A total of 20 sectors experienced net outflows, with the electronics sector leading at 3.841 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector at 2.799 billion yuan [1] Home Appliance Sector Performance - The home appliance sector increased by 1.35% with a net inflow of 278 million yuan, comprising 95 stocks, of which 51 rose and 38 fell [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Midea Group at 187 million yuan, Gree Electric Appliances at 161 million yuan, and Shenzhen Konka at 143 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included Sanhua Intelligent Control at 63.297 million yuan, Stone Technology at 60.431 million yuan, and Starlight Shares at 45.593 million yuan [2] Notable Stocks in Home Appliance Sector - Midea Group: Increased by 2.23% with a turnover rate of 0.50% and a main capital flow of 187.256 million yuan [2] - Gree Electric Appliances: Increased by 2.21% with a turnover rate of 0.94% and a main capital flow of 160.982 million yuan [2] - Shenzhen Konka: Increased by 7.58% with a turnover rate of 17.10% and a main capital flow of 143.227 million yuan [2]

| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002269 | 美邦服饰 | 10.30 | 5.41 | 5594.44 | | 002404 | 嘉欣丝绸 | 10.04 | 6.79 | 5523.42 | | 300979 | 华利集团 | 12.07 | 1.01 | 4919.46 | | 300918 | 南山智尚 | 8.31 | 8.52 | 3949.76 | | 002762 | 金发拉比 | 9.92 | 8.15 | 3791.86 | | 600916 | 中国黄金 | 3.63 | 2.31 | 3625.22 | | 301066 | 万事利 | 20.00 | 17.54 | 3102.01 | | 002144 | 宏达高科 | 5.57 | 7.55 | 1480.62 | | 002193 | 如意集团 | 10.10 | 6.05 | 1233.16 | | 002612 | 朗姿股份 | 5.48 | 6.45 | 1081.75 | | 002494 ...