专题报告 2025-08-22 乙二醇：政策对基本面影响较小，中期仍旧承压 报告要点： 近期乙二醇行业有较多供给端政策对情绪上产生影响，但从基本面的角度看对于行业产能过剩 以及进口端的影响极小，反而是下游需求端装置的出清存在利空压力，因此政策对于乙二醇行 业的影响情绪大于实质。从中期的角度看，随着国内外负荷提升，乙二醇将进入累库周期，估 值高位承压。短期节奏上看，近期到港量偏少，港口库存在短期还未进入累库阶段，叠加政策 刺激情绪对乙二醇有一定支撑，需等待到港量上升后，考虑逢高空配的机会。 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 能化研究员 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 刘洁文 能化研究员 近期工信部等部门出台关于开展石化化工行业老旧装置摸底评估通知，对化工行业 超过 20 年运行装置进行摸排，若后续存在出清政策的落实，预期会缓解化工行业 过剩产能的现状。 但对于乙二醇行业而言，整体老装置占比不多，运行超过 20 年的装置有 141.2 万 吨产能，其中燕山石化、天 ...

【分析】 玻璃：中游持续出货打压现货价格，厂家被动降价，市场负反馈还在持续，近月09弱现实，远月01弱预 期。经历前期拉涨库存从厂家转移至中游贸易商、期现商，沙河期现库存创新高，出货伴有踩踏发生打 压厂家价格。回归供需，深加工订单偏弱，lowe开工率持续偏低，玻璃刚需端有一定压力，长远看地产 周期底部，竣工缩量，最终行业需要产能出清来解决过剩困境。可跟踪各地区政策实际落地实施情况， 以及临近金九银十中下游备货表现。当前盘面持续走弱空头逻辑还未结束，空单可继续持有。 【操作建议】 玻璃：空单持有 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【玻璃现货行情】 玻璃：沙河成交均价1200元/吨上下。 【供需】 截至2025年8月14日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.96万吨，与7日持平。本周（2025080 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the increasing demand for spandex driven by its growing penetration in the textile and apparel sector, with 76% of spandex used for clothing production in 2024 and an apparent consumption volume of 102.69 million tons, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 9.21% from 2020 to 2024, significantly higher than other mainstream fibers like polyester filament and staple [1][2] - The sales revenue of domestic apparel, footwear, and textile categories is expected to grow year-on-year from 2023 to 2024, with a cumulative sales increase of 3.10% in the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend in clothing consumption that will further boost spandex demand [2] - The emergence of trendy products such as yoga and sun-protective clothing since 2020 has notably driven the overall demand for spandex, alongside a projected export volume of 7.88 million tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.23% [2] Group 2 - The spandex industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, with nominal production capacity consistently exceeding apparent consumption since 2022, leading to prolonged negative profit margins and high inventory levels [3] - As of August 2025, the average gross profit margin for spandex is projected to be -5,217 yuan per ton, indicating over two years of continuous losses, which has resulted in reduced operational willingness among companies and a decline in overall industry operating rates [3] - The exit of outdated production capacities is underway, exemplified by the closure of operations by companies like Taiguang and Xiaoxing, which will contribute to the gradual clearing of excess capacity in the spandex industry [3][4] Group 3 - The supply-demand dynamics of the spandex market may gradually improve as excess capacity is cleared, with leading companies likely to benefit first from this shift [4] - In 2024, leading spandex manufacturers Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber are expected to have unit costs of 22,406 and 25,263 yuan per ton, respectively, which are significantly lower than the industry average of 29,711 yuan per ton, allowing them to maintain positive gross margins of 13.66% and 0.30% despite a challenging market environment [5] - If no substantial anti-involution policies are implemented, the ongoing capacity clearing combined with rising demand could lead to gradual improvements in the spandex industry's overall market conditions, with Huafeng Chemical recommended as a key investment target [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for spandex is expected to continue growing due to increasing penetration rates in the textile industry and rising consumer preferences for comfort [5][13] - The spandex industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, with outdated production capacity gradually being eliminated [6][22] - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve as outdated capacity is cleared, benefiting leading companies in the industry [7][44] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Spandex is primarily used in the textile and apparel sector, with 76% of spandex consumption in 2024 dedicated to clothing production, resulting in an apparent consumption volume of 1.0269 million tons [5][14] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for spandex apparent consumption from 2020 to 2024 is 9.21%, significantly higher than other mainstream fibers [14] - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China increased by 3.10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, further driving spandex demand [14][19] Supply Side - The spandex industry has been experiencing significant overcapacity, with an average gross profit margin of -5,217 yuan/ton as of August 13, 2025, indicating prolonged losses [6][25] - In 2024, new spandex production capacity is expected to increase by 135,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.88%, continuing a trend of over 10% growth for three consecutive years [25][39] - The industry concentration ratio (CR5) stands at 79.53%, indicating a high level of market concentration among leading companies [33][35] Future Outlook - Leading companies such as Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber are expected to benefit from their cost advantages, with unit costs significantly lower than the industry average [7][39] - The anticipated new production capacity for spandex in 2025 is only 111,000 tons, indicating a slowdown in capacity growth [33][48] - Recommended stocks include Huafeng Chemical, with other beneficiaries being Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Taihe New Materials [45][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond market continued its upward trend this week, with the price center rising and market risk appetite recovering. The valuation structure remained differentiated, with high - priced bonds driven by elasticity and medium - and low - priced bonds being repaired. Frequent downward revision and redemption events increased the game nature. The equity market was dominated by the small - and medium - cap growth style, and funds were highly concentrated in technology mainlines such as communication and electronics, as well as rotating sectors such as machinery and non - ferrous metals. Under the accelerated market rotation, the volatility risk of high - position crowded sectors increased. It is recommended to follow the market mainline and rotation rhythm, dig out elastic varieties driven by the underlying stocks, and pay attention to sectors at the bottom of the cycle, such as the chemical industry, which have allocation value [2][6]. - The current chemical convertible bond market is in the clearing stage of the production capacity and inventory cycle, and market attention is relatively low. The underlying stocks of chemical convertible bonds generally have low valuations, and the convertible bonds themselves have both bond - like protection and price elasticity. Although the industry's overall capital expenditure has shrunk and shows an active de - stocking trend, the profitability of the sector has shown signs of improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to individual bonds with a safety margin of underlying stock valuation and profit - repair elasticity [11]. - The A - share market showed a significant small - and medium - cap growth style this week. The ChiNext Index led the rise. Although the net outflow of main funds continued, the outflow pressure eased, and market sentiment improved. In terms of industries, the differentiation intensified. Technology - growth sectors such as communication, power equipment, and electronics became the main lines, leading the market. It is recommended to pay attention to the rotation opportunities within the mainline sectors and be cautious about directions with excessive trading congestion [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chemical Convertible Bond Market Analysis - **Performance and Potential**: The chemical convertible bond market is in the clearing stage of the production capacity and inventory cycle. The underlying stocks of chemical convertible bonds are generally undervalued, and the convertible bonds have bond - like protection and price elasticity. The industry's profitability is improving, especially under the strengthening of the "anti - involution" logic, and its profit - repair potential is worth looking forward to [11]. - **Market Attention**: As of August 15, the trading volume of the chemical sector accounted for 5.9% of the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, at a historical percentile of 2.7% since July 23, 2010, indicating low market attention and potential allocation opportunities [19]. - **Capacity Cycle**: In the second quarter of 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of the chemical industry was only 71.9%, at a historical low since the fourth quarter of 2016. The capital expenditure intensity of all sub - sectors in the first quarter of 2025 showed negative growth, indicating that the chemical sector is in the production capacity clearing stage [26]. - **Inventory Cycle**: The chemical sector may have entered the active de - stocking stage. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the net profit margin has been on the rise, and the profitability of enterprises has improved [30]. - **Individual Bond Analysis**: As of August 15, 2025, 58 individual bonds in the large chemical sector were selected. The median conversion premium rate was 26.1%, and the balance - weighted average conversion premium rate was 44.2%, still having bond - like characteristics. The median market price was 133.4 yuan, slightly higher than the market median. The underlying stocks of chemical convertible bonds are still in a low - valuation range [33]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review - **Equity Market**: The trading - themed stocks in the equity market were active this week. The continuous limit - up index led the rise with a weekly increase of 20.9%. The technology and high - end manufacturing fields showed a differentiated pattern, the pharmaceutical sector rose as a whole, and the military - related themes were under pressure. Short - term funds were active, and funds were highly concentrated in trading - themed stocks and technology hardware sub - directions [35][36]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market continued its upward trend this week, with small - cap convertible bonds leading the way. The valuation structure remained differentiated, and the implied volatility fluctuated upward. The market style shifted to machinery and equipment and non - ferrous metals, and individual bond performance was mainly driven by the underlying stocks. It is recommended to follow the market style and pay attention to elastic varieties with strong underlying stock driving forces [11]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking 3.3.1 Main Index Performance - The A - share main indexes continued to be strong this week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.5%, and the ChiNext Index led the rise with an 8.6% increase. Small - and medium - cap stocks performed better [39]. - Although the net outflow of main funds continued, the outflow pressure eased. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was about 2.1 trillion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 billion yuan [39]. 3.3.2 Industry Performance - The A - share market showed significant structural differentiation. Sectors such as communication, power equipment, and electronics were the strongest. The consumer and cyclical sectors showed different performances within the sectors. Funds were concentrated in growth sectors such as electronics and computers [45][46]. - The trading heat of the market showed significant differentiation. The military, pharmaceutical, and machinery sectors were highly active, while the cyclical and some consumer sectors showed a decline in heat [49]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bond Market Performance - The convertible bond market continued to rise this week, with small - cap convertible bonds leading the way. The Zhongzheng Convertible Bond Index rose 1.6%, the small - cap convertible bond index rose 2.3%, the medium - cap index rose 1.6%, and the large - cap index rose 0.2%. The trading volume increased, with an average daily trading volume of about 965.0 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 67.0 billion yuan [52]. - The valuation of the convertible bond market was stretched overall when divided by the parity range. When divided by the market price range, the valuation showed a differentiated pattern. The implied volatility of the convertible bond market fluctuated upward, and the median price of convertible bonds rose [55][57][60]. - Most of the 25 industries in the convertible bond market rose this week. Non - ferrous metals, machinery and equipment, and non - bank finance led the rise. The trading volume was concentrated in machinery and equipment, power equipment, and basic chemicals [63]. - Most individual convertible bonds rose this week. The performance of convertible bonds was mainly driven by the underlying stocks. The convertible bonds with high increases were mostly those with high elasticity and long - term or near - maturity characteristics, while the convertible bonds with large declines were affected by the poor performance of the underlying stocks [65][68]. 3.4 Issuance and Clause Tracking - No new convertible bonds were listed this week, and one convertible bond, Kaizhong Convertible Bond, was open for subscription, with an issue size of 3.1 billion yuan and a credit rating of AA - [69]. - Four listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans this week, including two in the exchange - acceptance stage, one in the shareholders' meeting - approved stage, and one in the board - proposal stage [70]. - In terms of downward revisions, 5 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 8 announced that they would not make downward revisions, and 2 proposed downward revisions [77][78][80]. - In terms of redemptions, 15 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 6 announced that they would not redeem in advance, and 4 announced early redemptions [81][82][86].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a trend of capacity clearance and narrowing losses among enterprises, with Hongyuan Green Energy reporting a significant reduction in losses in its mid-year report [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Hongyuan Green Energy reported a revenue of 3.229 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 19.52% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -296 million yuan, an improvement from -1.157 billion yuan in the same period last year, indicating a loss reduction of over 70% [1][2]. - The company has been impacted by inventory impairment, with a provision for asset impairment losses of 95.09 million yuan, including inventory depreciation losses of 87.40 million yuan, which is significantly lower than the 403 million yuan recorded in the previous year [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The photovoltaic industry is still facing overcapacity, with low product prices expected to persist into the first half of 2025 [1]. - The price of N-type M10 silicon wafers dropped by 31% from the peak in April to the end of June, reflecting significant price volatility in the industry [2]. - Despite the overall losses in the photovoltaic industry, there are signs of improvement among leading companies, with some like Longi Green Energy and JA Solar showing reduced losses, and Aiko achieving profitability in the second quarter [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Since early July, prices for silicon materials and wafers have been on the rise, leading to a recovery in prices for battery cells and modules [3]. - Manufacturers are responding to supply chain fluctuations and policy adjustments by reducing shipments priced below 0.7 yuan/W, with new orders for TOPCon modules being signed at 0.68-0.72 yuan/W [3].

Group 1: Economic Overview - July industrial added value year-on-year was 5.7%, a significant drop of 1.1 percentage points from June, indicating a cooling industrial production[4] - Fixed asset investment in July saw a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, a sharp drop of 5.2 percentage points from June, marking a historical low[6] - Real estate investment in July decreased by 17% year-on-year, down 4.1 percentage points from June, with new construction area also declining by 15.4%[10] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Trends - Social retail sales in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continuous decline in consumption growth[12] - The manufacturing investment year-on-year in July was -0.3%, a significant drop of 5.4 percentage points from June, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" policies[8] - The private investment year-on-year growth in July was -7.3%, a decline of 4.7 percentage points from the previous month, closely mirroring the manufacturing investment trend[8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The equity market has entered a bullish phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high, driven by increased retail investor participation[18] - Bond market yields are rising, with the potential for further increases due to low absolute yield levels and market adjustments, indicating a need to monitor risks from concentrated sell-offs[21] - The overall financing in July showed a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, with government bond financing being the main driver, while corporate loan demand remains weak[14]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the temporary suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days, which aims to provide a buffer for the upcoming trade season and improve the short-term trade environment for the lithium iron phosphate industry [1][3] - The tariff adjustments are expected to stabilize the supply chain of lithium iron phosphate and enhance its international market share, with companies likely to accelerate export arrangements during this window period [3][12] - The article outlines a timeline of tariff changes between China and the US, highlighting significant increases and subsequent reductions in tariffs over the past months [2] Group 2 - The supply side is experiencing disruptions due to environmental regulations and production halts, leading to an increase in lithium iron phosphate prices [4][8] - The domestic production of lithium carbonate and lithium iron phosphate is under pressure, with significant price increases noted, particularly for battery-grade lithium carbonate, which has surpassed 85,000 yuan per ton [8] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries is showing structural recovery, with a 4.6% increase in production in July, indicating a strong market for these batteries [9][11] Group 3 - The macro outlook suggests that global competition in the new energy sector has transcended traditional trade boundaries, with the next 90 days being crucial for export opportunities [12] - There are uncertainties regarding the recovery of lithium carbonate supply, which may drive prices higher, thereby increasing cost pressures on lithium iron phosphate and pushing processing profits into negative territory [12] - The industry is expected to see a continued struggle between supply and demand, with low-end production capacity facing significant risks of elimination [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic soda ash production primarily utilizes the following methods: - **Soda-Lime Process** (49%) - **Ammonia-Soda Process** (34%) - **Natural Soda Process** (16%) - The natural soda process is favored for its cost and environmental advantages, but it is limited by resource availability [1][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost Pressures**: The ammonia-soda and soda-lime processes have production costs around **1,300 RMB/ton**, exceeding the market price of **1,200 RMB/ton**, leading to losses for many companies [1][5] - **Capacity and Supply**: By 2024, soda ash capacity is expected to reach **40.8 million tons**, with new natural soda mines exacerbating supply surplus. The industry may remain sluggish due to real estate sector drag, necessitating capacity clearance to improve supply-demand balance [1][6] - **Demand Shifts**: The demand for flat glass is declining, projected to be **32%** in 2024, while demand for photovoltaic glass is steadily increasing. The correlation between real estate completions and soda ash consumption is weak, with emerging sectors like photovoltaics partially offsetting real estate downturn impacts [1][9][10] - **Policy Impact**: Policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other agencies are expected to drive the exit of outdated capacities, improving industry supply-demand dynamics [1][12] Potential Investment Opportunities - **Current Profitability**: The soda ash industry is experiencing historically low profitability, with most companies incurring losses. However, companies like **Shandong Haihua**, **Boyang Chemical**, and **Zhongyan Chemical** show investment potential due to their operational resilience [1][14] - **Natural Soda Projects**: The new natural soda project by Zhongyan Chemical is expected to increase domestic natural soda capacity to **28%** by the end of 2025, potentially rising to **43%** post-project completion [1][13] - **Boyang Chemical's Growth**: The company focuses on natural gas operations, with the Alashan Phase II project expected to add **1.68 million tons** of soda ash and **240,000 tons** of sodium bicarbonate annually, contributing significantly to future growth [2][15] Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The soda ash industry is characterized by global pricing, with historical peaks reaching **3,700 RMB/ton**. The current low prices and the inability to import economically from regions like the US and Turkey due to shipping and tariffs create a unique market situation [7][8] - **Future Demand from Photovoltaics**: Although there is short-term overcapacity in photovoltaic glass, long-term demand could increase by **5.5 million tons** of soda ash if overseas photovoltaic installations continue to rise [11] - **Dividend and Financial Health**: Boyang Chemical shows strong dividend intentions with payout ratios of **79%** and **61.6%** for 2023 and 2024, respectively, alongside a declining debt ratio and significant future cash flow potential [16] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the soda ash industry, along with potential investment opportunities and challenges.

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Tianshan Co., Ltd. (000877.SZ), with a target price of 8.22 CNY per share based on a 0.7x PB for 2025 [1][6][21]. Core Insights - Tianshan Co., Ltd. is the largest cement producer in China with a complete industrial chain and national layout. The company is expected to benefit from cost control improvements, seasonal price increases, and policy-driven supply-side adjustments. The company is also expanding its "Cement+" business and overseas markets to create new growth avenues [1][2][3][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tianshan Co., Ltd. is a core enterprise under China National Building Material Group, with the largest cement clinker capacity in the country. The company has undergone significant growth and restructuring, becoming a national leader in the cement industry [25][31][26]. Industry Demand and Supply - Demand for cement is projected to decline by 5-6% in 2025, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow. The company is well-positioned to benefit from infrastructure projects in Xinjiang, where it holds a leading market share [2][54]. - The supply side is seeing a trend towards "anti-involution," with policies aimed at reducing overproduction. The industry is expected to improve its competitive landscape as excess capacity is gradually eliminated [2][57]. Performance and Cost Management - The company has faced pressure on revenue and profits in recent years, but the rate of decline is improving. Cost management is expected to enhance profitability, with a projected decrease in unit costs by 23 CNY in 2024 [3][4]. - The company is focusing on integrated operations and overseas expansion, with expectations of revenue growth from international projects [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of 83.3 billion CNY in 2025, with a net profit of 1.72 billion CNY. The projections for 2026 and 2027 are 82.6 billion CNY and 82.1 billion CNY in revenue, respectively [4][21]. - The report highlights that the company's current valuation is at a historical low, providing significant upside potential [21]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes a 10% decline in cement and clinker sales in 2025, with a gradual recovery in subsequent years. It also anticipates price stability and cost reductions due to improved management practices [15][16][17].