【玻璃现货行情】 玻璃：沙河成交均价1100元/吨上下。 【供需】 截至2025年7月3日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.78万吨，比26日+0.64%。本周（20250627-0703）全国浮 法玻璃产量110.34万吨，环比+1.15%，同比-7.46%。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【分析】 玻璃：前期相关政策扰动，市场对于玻璃有减产预期带动盘面大幅反弹。盘面情绪带动现货端大幅好 转，叠加月初授信，产销走强，基差结构激发了部分投机需求，关注持续性以及是否能形成正反馈。当 前处于夏季梅雨淡季，深加工订单偏弱，lowe开工率持续偏低，玻璃刚需端有一定压力，长远看最终行 业需要产能出清来解决过剩困境，因此还需等待更多冷修兑现或能带来盘面真正的反转。盘面反弹后市 场认为利多有限，近日重新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant downturns in the liquor and photovoltaic industries, highlighting the challenges faced by both sectors and the potential conditions for recovery. Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is currently facing three major challenges: weak consumer demand, high inventory levels, and price inversion [9][10]. - Consumer demand is declining, with a shift towards mid-to-low-end products and a weakened correlation with the real estate sector, impacting traditional consumption scenarios [10][11]. - High inventory levels are a result of manufacturers pushing products onto distributors during the pandemic, leading to a "dam" effect where excess stock remains unsold [12][14]. - The valuation bubble that existed during the liquidity peak of 2020-2021 has burst, with the China Liquor Index's PE-TTM ratio previously exceeding 70 times, now facing significant earnings growth declines [15][16]. - Recovery in the liquor sector depends on economic recovery, inventory normalization, and strategic adjustments by companies to target new consumer segments [21][23]. Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to widespread losses across the sector [17]. - Rapid capacity expansion from 2020 to 2022 has resulted in overproduction, with projected capacities far exceeding demand, leading to price crashes across the supply chain [17][18]. - Technological iterations, particularly the shift from PERC to N-type technologies, are intensifying competition and causing old production lines to become obsolete [18]. - The industry faces significant geopolitical risks, including trade barriers and instability in energy policies due to ongoing global conflicts [19][20]. - Conditions for recovery in the photovoltaic sector are clearer, with expectations for capacity reduction and stabilization of prices by 2025, alongside potential technological advancements [25][26]. Market Divergence and Potential Risks - Optimistic views suggest that the worst may be over for both industries, with opportunities emerging as pessimistic expectations are priced in [27][32]. - Cautious perspectives highlight the lack of substantial improvement in fundamentals, warning against premature investments [28][33]. - Key risks include macroeconomic uncertainties, slow capacity clearance, deteriorating overseas markets, and uncertainties in technological advancements [34][35][36][37]. Long-term Outlook - Both industries are undergoing painful adjustments as they transition towards higher quality development, with the liquor sector focusing on brand enhancement and the photovoltaic sector on technological leadership [38][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate prices rebounded at the beginning of the year due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream players. After the holiday, new - energy vehicle terminal sales declined, lithium salt production climbed rapidly, inventory accumulated, and prices dropped. In June, production contracted, material factories restocked, and policies released positive expectations, leading to a price rebound [3]. - In the second half of the year, the fundamental situation of supply - demand weakness remains unchanged, and prices are expected to continue to decline under the logic of oversupply. However, the advantage of hedging for lithium salt plants disappears, the pace of upstream capacity clearance is expected to accelerate, and there may be frequent disruptions on the supply side. The domestic macro - environment has not improved significantly, and the resilience of power terminal consumption is questionable. The heat of the energy - storage market may continue in the third quarter, and the "rush - to - export" trend depends on foreign trade policy risks. Overall, prices may continue to decline, but the downward path may not be smooth [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated downward based on fundamental logic, with staged rebounds driven by market expectations of marginal fundamental corrections. By May 31, the maximum decline of the 09 contract in the first half of the year was about 25.26% [8]. - Before the Spring Festival, pre - holiday restocking pushed up prices. After the holiday, weak terminal consumption and increased production led to price drops. In March, trade barriers intensified the decline. In May, trade negotiations led to a small rebound, followed by another decline. In June, factors such as factory shutdowns, restocking by downstream players, and short - term profit - taking by short - sellers led to a price rebound [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cost Center Moves Down, Lithium Resource Exploration at Home and Abroad Accelerates - Lithium prices and associated ore prices declined, with different rates. Imported lithium spodumene concentrate prices fell from $747/ton at the beginning of the year to $644/ton on June 30, a decline of about 13.79%. Lithium mica prices declined more slowly, from 1,310 yuan/ton to 1,260 yuan/ton, a decline of about 3.82% [11]. - Lithium ore imports remained high, and import channels became more diversified. From January to May, the total import volume of lithium concentrate was 291.94 tons, with an increasing trend. Australia was still the main source, accounting for about 53.1%, while African imports increased, accounting for about 36.57% [12]. - Australian mines have abundant resources, but the incremental expectation is slowing. In the first quarter of 2025, the total production of lithium concentrate was about 800,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.98%. The weighted average cost decreased from $399.41/ton in Q4 2024 to $359.66/ton [13]. - African mines have limited incremental production this year but strong potential in the long term. Some mines are already at full - capacity production, and some new projects are in the process of ramping up production [14]. - Domestic resources are on the verge of development. Some domestic mines have started production or obtained mining licenses, and technological innovation has reduced the cost of extracting lithium from mica [14]. 2.2 Capacity Growth Slows, Supply Clearance Expected to Accelerate - Lithium salt capacity growth slowed down. From the beginning of the year to May, capacity increased from 1.963 million tons to 2.1486 million tons, an increase of about 9.45%, much lower than the 19.22% growth rate in the second half of 2024. Some projects have stopped construction [17]. - By June 27, the total production of lithium carbonate was about 409,300 tons. Production in Jiangxi and Hunan, mainly from mica - based lithium extraction, increased significantly, while production in Sichuan, mainly from spodumene - based extraction, was relatively stable. Salt - lake lithium extraction in Qinghai and Xinjiang also increased [17]. - From January to May 2025, lithium carbonate imports were 100,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 15.32%. Chile was the main source, accounting for about 66.52%. Some overseas salt - lake projects are ramping up production, and the proportion of low - cost lithium salt is expected to increase [20]. - Some domestic companies have capacity expansion or new - project plans. In the future, the clearance of high - cost capacity is expected to accelerate, but supply disruptions may occur frequently [21]. 2.3 Positive Electrode Material Market Expected to be Stable - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: Prices declined. Power - type lithium iron phosphate prices dropped from 35,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 32,300 yuan/ton on June 30, a decline of about 9.01%. Energy - storage type prices dropped from 33,250 yuan/ton to 31,100 yuan/ton, a decline of about 6.46%. Capacity growth slowed down, but production and operating rates increased slightly. New capacity is shifting towards high - compaction products [28]. - **Ternary Cathode Materials**: Prices fluctuated. The price of 5 - series ternary materials increased from 130,100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 138,400 yuan/ton on June 30, an increase of about 6.38%. The price of 8 - series materials increased slightly by about 0.14%. The increase in cobalt prices drove up the cost. Capacity growth was slightly positive, and production and operating rates were higher than last year. New capacity is moving towards high - nickel ternary materials [29][30]. 2.4 Terminal Consumption Resilience Questionable, Policies Force Car Manufacturers to Reduce Production Schedules - **Domestic Market**: From January to May, new - energy vehicle production was about 5.701 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 45%, and sales were about 5.606 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 44%. New - replacement subsidies drove consumption, accounting for about 30.49% of total sales in the first half of the year. However, if subsidies are excluded, 2025 consumption is similar to 2024. In the future, consumer willingness may be limited, and policies may pressure car manufacturers' cash flows and production schedules [32][33]. - **Overseas Market**: In Europe, from January to April, new - energy vehicle sales were about 1.1312 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 23.32%. In the US, from January to May, sales were about 647,900 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 8.87%, and the market penetration rate declined. In the future, European carbon - emission policies may slow down the electrification process, and US tax - incentive policies may change [34]. 2.5 Warehouse Receipt Inventory May Be a Drag, No Industry - Driven De - stocking Expected - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate inventory increased from 61,623 tons at the beginning of the year to 110,305 tons on June 27. Market inventory increased more significantly than factory inventory, indicating increased hedging demand during price declines. In the second half of the year, supply - demand growth is expected to slow down, and the decline in warehouse receipts may reduce inventory, but there is no expectation of industry - driven de - stocking [38]. 3. Conclusion - **Cost and Supply**: Lithium ore resources are abundant, and low - cost Australian mines have an advantage. Overseas and domestic exploration is progressing well. Supply oversupply is expected to continue, but capacity clearance may accelerate, and supply disruptions may occur frequently [41]. - **Consumption**: The resilience of power - terminal consumption is questionable, and the impact of growth - stabilization policies needs to be observed. The energy - storage market may remain hot in the third quarter, and the "rush - to - export" trend depends on foreign trade policies. Overall, prices are expected to decline under the logic of oversupply, but the downward path may not be smooth [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the lithium sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The lithium price has shown continuous growth, rising from 59,000 CNY/ton to 64,000 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 8.1% since June 23 [10]. - Supply-side signals indicate a reduction in output from Australian mines, suggesting that the industry is in the later stages of capacity clearance [2]. - Demand remains robust, with significant growth in the lithium battery production and electric vehicle sales, supporting a favorable price transmission for lithium [3]. Supply Summary - Australian lithium mines are signaling reduced output, with production expected to remain flat at 740,000 tons in Q1 2025, down 17% from the previous quarter [2]. - The current pricing has reached a sensitive cost level for Australian producers, leading to operational adjustments and cost-cutting measures [2]. - The low lithium prices have resulted in a squeeze on capital expenditures, potentially leading to a slowdown in supply growth in the future [2]. Demand Summary - The lithium battery industry is experiencing high growth, with domestic battery production reaching 801 GWh in the first half of 2025, a 52% year-on-year increase [26]. - Electric vehicle sales in China reached 5.42 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the previous year [26]. - The competitive landscape in the electric vehicle sector is prompting manufacturers to initiate a "de-involution" process to stabilize pricing and improve profitability across the supply chain [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with low-cost resource supply and diversified non-lithium operations will have a competitive advantage in the current market [4]. - Recommended stocks include Zhongkuang Resources, Yongxing Materials, Salt Lake Co., Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to navigate the industry downturn effectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing severe challenges, with many companies facing bankruptcy and an oversupply of production capacity, leading to continuous price declines and financial losses across the sector [4][5][6][8]. Group 1: Industry Status - As of 2024, at least 70 photovoltaic companies have filed for bankruptcy, primarily affecting small and medium-sized enterprises, with 40% of these bankruptcies occurring in the battery and module segments [8]. - The "installation rush" in the first half of the year led to a record high of 198 GW of new installations from January to May, yet prices across the photovoltaic supply chain continue to decline [6][9]. - The industry is in a prolonged "hell" phase, with companies bleeding cash while waiting for a balance between supply and demand [6][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, 40% of the 138 listed photovoltaic companies reported losses, with the top 10 loss-making companies collectively losing over 53 billion yuan [19][21]. - Major companies like Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar reported significant losses in the first quarter of 2025, with combined losses nearing 8.4 billion yuan [20][21]. Group 3: Capacity and Market Dynamics - As of the end of 2024, the production capacity for key segments in the photovoltaic supply chain is significantly higher than the projected global installation capacity, indicating a severe oversupply [15]. - The expansion of production capacity has not ceased, with numerous projects initiated in 2024, leading to further potential oversupply issues [15][16]. - The presence of state-owned enterprises acquiring struggling companies has hindered the necessary market corrections, allowing many non-competitive firms to remain operational [16][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Industry experts suggest that without strong regulatory measures, the current cycle of overcapacity and price wars will continue, potentially leading to the exit of major players [21][22]. - Proposed solutions include market-driven mergers and acquisitions, technological elimination mechanisms, and policy enforcement to manage capacity effectively [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the lithium battery electrolyte industry, particularly focusing on the financial performance of Shida Shenghua, which is experiencing significant losses due to market conditions and operational issues [1][4][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Shida Shenghua expects a net loss of 52 million to 60 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 90.06 million to 98.06 million yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 236.64% to 257.66% [1][3]. - The company has seen a continuous decline in net profit over the past three years, with year-on-year decreases of 24.42%, 97.90%, and 12.32% from 2022 to 2024, with 2024's net profit only being 18.44% of 2022's [4][5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The electrolyte market has been facing a downturn, with average sales prices for ternary electrolytes dropping from 30,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2024 to a low of 23,000 yuan per ton, and lithium iron phosphate electrolytes from 22,000 yuan per ton to 20,000 yuan per ton [4]. - The average price of various electrolytes is currently below 20,000 yuan per ton, marking a low point for the past three years [4]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - Shida Shenghua's production facilities in Wuhan are still in the customer introduction phase, leading to lower output and higher fixed costs, which have negatively impacted the company's net profit [3][7]. - The company has a total production capacity of 300,000 tons of electrolytes in Dongying and 200,000 tons in Wuhan, with the Dongying facility operating stably while the Wuhan facility is expected to start production in mid-2024 [7]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - Shida Shenghua has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with CATL, expecting to supply 100,000 tons of electrolytes, which could positively impact the company's performance if fully executed [7][8]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The electrolyte sector is anticipated to enter a critical phase of capacity clearing between 2025 and 2027, with an expected improvement in supply-demand dynamics as outdated capacities exit the market [8]. - Companies in the sector need to manage costs effectively and innovate product technologies to maintain competitiveness during market fluctuations [8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report - Date: July 4, 2024 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash market is facing an overall surplus situation, with supply and demand both declining and inventory accumulating. The long - term outlook is bearish, but there is a risk of short - term correction due to policy stimulus [8]. - The glass market is under pressure from increasing supply and high mid - stream inventory. Although the price has rebounded due to policy expectations, the follow - up implementation of industry production - limiting policies needs to be monitored [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **July 3 Trading Data**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 closed at 1,183 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.16%, with an increase of 177,559 lots in positions [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production dropped to 709,000 tons, a 1.09% week - on - week decrease. Capacity utilization fell to 81.32%, a 0.89% week - on - week decrease. Consumption decreased by 1.50% week - on - week, and inventory increased by 2.41% week - on - week to 1.8095 million tons [8]. - **Outlook**: The overall surplus pattern suppresses prices. Demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries is declining. In the short term, there is a risk of correction, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is bearish [8]. 3.1.2 Glass - **July 3 Trading Data**: The FG509 contract closed at 1,039 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 1.56%, with an increase of 22,323 lots in positions. The FG601 contract closed at 1,128 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.25%, with a decrease of 4,438 lots in positions [7]. - **Supply**: Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd.'s Zibo No. 5 line with a design capacity of 600 tons/day was restarted, increasing supply and inventory pressure [9]. - **Demand**: The domestic real estate completion stage has not improved substantially, and the industry's downward trend continues [9]. - **Policy**: The market expects the government to introduce policies for capacity clearance and production limitation, leading to a price rebound. The implementation of these policies needs to be monitored [10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [13][14][19].

【玻璃现货行情】 玻璃：沙河成交均价1100元/吨上下。 玻璃：周三相关政策扰动，市场对于玻璃有减产预期带动盘面大幅反弹。盘面情绪带动现货端大幅好 转，叠加月初授信，产销走强，基差结构激发了部分投机需求，关注持续性以及是否能形成正反馈。当 前处于夏季梅雨淡季，深加工订单偏弱，lowe开工率持续偏低，玻璃刚需端有一定压力，长远看最终行 业需要产能出清来解决过剩困境，因此还需等待更多冷修兑现或能带来盘面真正的反转。短期情绪带动 下盘面偏强，资金行为造成盘面波动巨大，建议暂观望。 【操作建议】 玻璃：短线观望 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【供需】 截至2025年6月26日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.68万吨，比19日+0.87%。本周（20250620-0626）全国 浮法玻璃产量109 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although there are expectations of supply tightening, subsequent production will recover, and demand remains weak. Caution is advised when chasing up [3]. - The price of copper is expected to continue its upward trend, but the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations on the US dollar index will increase price volatility [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise in the September peak - demand season, with short - term upward movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level around 62,000 [10]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but geopolitical risks and the OPEC+ meeting need to be monitored. It is recommended to lightly buy put options [11][12]. - For asphalt, as it enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - PP and plastic are expected to fluctuate at low levels due to factors such as weak downstream demand and inventory pressure [15][16]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at low levels in the near term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. - Soybean meal futures are expected to show a volatile adjustment trend, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and tax bills [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather during the growing season [21]. - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. - The price increase of urea is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Price**: Opened high and closed up more than 3% [3]. - **Supply**: There are expectations of production cuts during the safety month, and the Mongolian coal import port is closed for 5 days. Domestic production and imports have decreased, and mine coking coal inventory has decreased significantly [3]. - **Demand**: Relatively weak and stable. Coke enterprises' profit has decreased, and the iron - water production increase is small. Terminal demand is affected by high temperatures and real - estate policies [3]. Copper - **Price**: Opened low and closed down [5]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper smelting is expected to be tight, but the actual supply is increasing. Global copper inventory is decreasing, with different trends in different regions [5]. - **Demand**: Affected by the copper tariff event, export demand has increased, but terminal demand is weak, and it is mainly supported by low - price purchases [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has increased [10]. - **Supply**: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to supply - side reform, current weekly production is increasing [10]. - **Demand**: The market expects September to be the peak - demand season. The prices of downstream materials have increased, but battery factory demand is relatively stable [10]. Crude Oil - **Geopolitical Situation**: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but geopolitical risks still need to be monitored. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 [11]. - **Supply - Demand**: Entering the seasonal peak - demand season, US crude oil inventory has decreased, and OPEC+ production increase is less than expected [11]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The weekly production is increasing, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased [13]. - **Demand**: As it gradually enters the peak season, the demand in the north is relatively good [13]. - **Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - **Supply**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the restart of some maintenance devices has increased production. The downstream start - up rate has decreased [14][15]. - **Demand**: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [15]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Plastic - **Supply**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has decreased. The downstream start - up rate is at a low level [16]. - **Demand**: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [16]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level in the near term [16]. PVC - **Supply**: The start - up rate has decreased, and social inventory is high [17][18]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and exports are affected by policies [17][18]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. Soybean Meal - **Supply**: Domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and inventory is increasing [19]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is stable, and oil mills have little motivation to support prices [19]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to show a volatile adjustment trend [19]. Soybean Oil - **Supply**: Domestic soybean arrivals are large, and the oil - mill start - up rate is high, resulting in inventory accumulation [21]. - **Demand**: Market reaction to USDA reports is flat, and the peak - production expectation is strong, but weather changes need to be watched out for [21]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to maintain a volatile trend [21]. Rebar - **Supply**: Production is increasing, and supply pressure is rising [22]. - **Demand**: Demand is weak, showing seasonal characteristics [22]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased [22]. - **Cost**: The cost center has moved up, providing support [22]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. Hot - rolled Coil - **Supply**: Production is expected to increase as maintenance impacts decrease [25]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand has seasonal decline, but is relatively resilient [25]. - **Cost**: Furnace material support is strong [25]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. Urea - **Supply**: Production is affected by maintenance, and there are concerns about supply - side reform, but the impact is relatively small [26]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is weak and stable, mainly relying on exports for inventory reduction [26]. - **Recommendation**: The price increase is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the prices of soda ash and glass have rebounded due to policy stimulus, but the supply - demand contradictions in the fundamentals remain. The soda ash market is in an overall surplus situation, with supply declining, weak downstream demand, and further inventory accumulation. The long - term outlook is bearish. For glass, the demand is affected by seasonal factors, supply is increasing, and inventory pressure is rising. Attention should be paid to the implementation of industry production - restriction policies [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash, Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market Review** - On July 2, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 rebounded significantly, closing at 1205 yuan/ton, up 3.07% or 36 yuan/ton, with a daily reduction of 180,882 lots. The supply and demand of soda ash both decreased, and inventory accumulation continued. In the week of June 26, China's weekly soda ash production dropped to 716,700 tons, a 5.04% week - on - week decrease, and the capacity utilization rate fell to 82.21%, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. The consumption and inventory showed a downward and upward trend respectively. The market rebounded due to the policy expectation of capacity clearance and production restriction [7][8] - The overall surplus pattern of soda ash suppresses prices. The demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries is still declining, and the purchasing sentiment is weak. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price correction, and take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [9] - **Glass Market Review** - The demand for glass is significantly affected by seasonal factors. During the traditional rainy season, the terminal demand for glass is weakening. The supply of float glass has increased due to the restart of Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd.'s Zibo No. 5 line, leading to greater inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory in the industry is at a high level, and the process of capacity reduction is slow. The glass price rebounded due to policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [10] 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [12][13][16]