非银分析师预计，在交投活跃度提升与资本市场平稳运行下，券商业绩修复趋势有望延续。 最近一周，A股上市公司稳市动作不断，在增持、回购之余，一批公司率先发布了2025年一季度业绩预告，其中不乏上市券商的身影。 截至4月14日，A股上市券商中，已有11家披露了一季度业绩快报或预增公告，且归母净利润均实现不同程度增长。其中，包括国泰海通（601211.SH）、华 泰证券（601688.SH）在内的多家券商增幅均在50%及以上。 而中信证券预计一季度实现归母净利润65.45亿元，同比增长32%左右，目前净利规模暂居第二位。 再往后，则是净利30亿元规模梯队，华泰证券预计实现归母净利34.37亿元至36.66亿元，同比增长50%至60%；中国银河（601881.SH）预计实现归母净利 27.73亿元至31.00亿元，同比增长70%至90%。 截至目前，除中信证券和国元证券（000728.SZ）外，其余9家券商一季度归母净利润同比增幅均在50%及以上。其中，中金公司（601995.SH）、中信建投 （601066.SH）等大型券商增幅在50%至90%区间，东吴证券（601555.SH）等增幅超过100%。 从业绩增长原因来 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of Guotai Haitong Securities has raised questions about whether CITIC Securities can maintain its position as the industry leader [2] - Guotai Haitong Securities' net profit for the first quarter is expected to exceed CITIC Securities, primarily due to negative goodwill from the merger [2][8] - Guotai Haitong Securities anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 112.01 billion to 124.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 350% to 400% [4] Group 2 - CITIC Securities expects a net profit of approximately 65.45 billion yuan for the first quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 32% [7] - Guotai Haitong's net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 29.73 billion to 33.83 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 45% to 65% [8] - The significant growth in Guotai Haitong's net profit is attributed to the merger and the enhancement of its core business competitiveness, particularly in wealth management and trading investment [8] Group 3 - The simulated consolidated financial statements for Guotai Haitong show total assets of 1.73 trillion yuan and net assets attributable to the parent company of 328.3 billion yuan as of the end of 2024, both ranking first in the industry [8] - Major securities firms have reported substantial growth in their first-quarter performance, with Huatai Securities expecting a net profit of 34.37 billion to 36.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 60% [10] - Other firms like China Galaxy and CICC also forecast significant profit increases, driven by strong performance in wealth management and proprietary trading [10]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Chinese securities firms, including China Galaxy and Huatai Securities, reported over 50% growth in net profit for the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong performance in wealth management, credit trading, and investment trading [2][12]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Galaxy expects a net profit of 2.773 billion to 3.1 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 70% to 90% [3]. - Huatai Securities anticipates a net profit of 3.437 billion to 3.666 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 50% to 60% [4]. - Huazhong Securities projects a net profit of 502 million to 558 million yuan for Q1 2025, with an increase of 80% to 100% year-on-year [6]. - CITIC Securities expects a net profit of approximately 6.545 billion yuan for Q1 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of about 32% [11]. - Guotai Haitong forecasts a net profit of 11.201 billion to 12.445 billion yuan for Q1 2025, indicating a significant increase of 350% to 400% year-on-year [11]. - Industrial Securities anticipates a net profit of 516 million yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.32% [11]. - Dongwu Securities expects a net profit of 912 million to 1.003 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with a growth of 100% to 120% year-on-year [11]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - Analysts express optimism regarding the securities industry, citing ongoing efforts by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote long-term capital inflows and enhance market activity [12]. - Predictions indicate that listed securities firms will see a 21% increase in operating revenue and a 23% increase in net profit year-on-year for Q1 2025 [12]. - The securities sector is viewed as a high-beta segment, with major firms likely to benefit from government support and market stabilization efforts [12][13].