截至2025年9月23日 13:20，中证全指证券公司指数(399975)下跌2.37%。成分股中银证券(601696)领跌， 太平洋(601099)、长城证券(002939)、东方财富(300059)、信达证券(601059)跟跌。券商ETF(512000)下 修调整。 流动性方面，券商ETF盘中换手3.53%，成交12.13亿元。拉长时间看，截至9月22日，券商ETF近1月日 均成交17.98亿元，排名可比基金前2。 规模方面，券商ETF最新规模达349.98亿元，创近1年新高，位居可比基金第二。份额方面，券商ETF最 新份额达593.38亿份，创近1年新高，位居可比基金第一。资金净流入方面，券商ETF近18天获得连续 资金净流入，最高单日获得12.62亿元净流入，合计"吸金"64.82亿元，日均净流入达3.60亿元。 截至9月22日，券商ETF近1年净值上涨50.75%。从收益能力看，截至2025年9月22日，券商ETF自成立 以来，最高单月回报为38.02%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为28.47%。 广发证券表示，增量资金入市潜力或进一步打开业绩和估值空间。在当前居民超额储蓄率高企、储蓄定 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京9月17日电（罗浩）沪深两市三大股指9月17日早间普遍小幅低开，各股指盘初呈冲高回落 态势，10时30分后开始震荡攀升，至午间收盘时普遍上涨。其中，深成指和创业板指均再度创下阶段盘 中新高。 消息面上 国务院国资委：中央企业研发经费连续三年超过万亿元 国务院国资委主任张玉卓17日在国务院新闻办公室举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布 会上表示，经过几年努力，中央企业的创新实力取得了长足进步，研发经费连续三年超过万亿元，投入 强度从2.6%提升到2.8%，参与了全部国家科技重大专项攻关，打造了97个原创技术策源地，组建了23 个创新联合体，形成了体系布局、协同攻坚、重点突破的强大合力。战略性新兴产业发展力度空前，央 企产业焕新行动、未来产业启航行动、启航企业培育工程深入实施，战新产业领域投资年均增速超过 20%，30家现代产业链链长企业积极发挥主体支撑和融通带动作用，在新一代信息技术、新能源、新材 料、高端装备等领域打造了一批世界级的产业集群。 国家网信办：头部企业需扛起"卡脖子"技术攻关责任 加速研发自主可控安全芯片以突破垄断 据"网信中国"17日消息，9月15日，2 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 9 月 16 日 如何衡量居民增量资金入市热度和潜力？ ——A 股投资启示录（三十） 当前银行存款和理财产品收益率处于历史低位，而股票市场赚钱效应持续积累， A 股内在回报率持续提升，规模庞大的增量资金极有可能涌入股票和基金市场推 动 A 股迎来一轮大级别上行行情。基于此，我们构建了增量资金入市的潜力和热 度指标，目前来看潜力指标尚处于历史均值以下，热度指标处于均值+1 倍标准差 以下，距离历史高位仍有较大增长空间。当前融资余额持续增长、私募基金规模 持续攀升、个人投资者开户数活跃，成为当前增量资金入市的主要渠道。展望后 市，偏股公募基金有望继续接力，外资也有望继续净流入成为重要的增量资金来 源。参考前两轮牛市，估算潜在增量资金仍有 5.4 万亿元。 专题报告 相关报告 《重估 A 股的基本原理：权重 指数篇——A 股投资启示录 （二十九）》 《主力何在？增量资金属性 与市场主线风格——A 股投 资启示录（二十八）》 《静态投资框架十问——A 股投资启示录（二十七）》 《基于 FCF-ROE 和 DCF 定 价模型的策略框架——A 股 投资启示录（二十六）》 《定 ...

增量资金的动向始终是市场关注的焦点。 7月与8月，A股市场增量资金态势延续向好格局，可跟踪资金净流入规模较此前进一步扩大，从资金结构来看，融资、私募依旧是主力增量来源，外资活跃 度大幅提升，个人投资者参与热情也同步高涨，多方资金形成合力，推动市场活力持续释放。 一是融资资金。作为重要杠杆资金，融资资金在8月净流入规模达2744.45亿元，较7月的1328.79亿元实现翻倍，创下阶段性新高。 二是外资。外资的参与度也显著提升，8月陆股通月均成交额达2942.27亿元，较7月增长45.8%并创历史新高。 三是私募证券投资基金。该类资金同样表现突出，7月新增备案规模达792.81亿元，远超6月的299.83亿元，创下2022年以来新高，管理规模也新增3254亿 元。 四是居民存款搬家。这也是近期特别被关注的话题。当前居民储蓄规模已突破161万亿元，待入市资金"蓄水池"庞大。尽管2019-2024年居民存款高速增长， 但2025年3月起增幅明显放缓，在银行存款与理财产品收益率处于历史低位，而A股赚钱效应逐步显现的背景下，居民资金向股市转移的动力不断增强，未 来有望为A股市场带来更多增量支撑。 融资资金净流入规模翻倍 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a positive trend driven by both domestic and external factors, leading to a broader range of investment opportunities [1] - The coordination of domestic supply and demand policies is a key variable that maintains high risk appetite, resulting in an upward trend in market indices [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a weaker dollar is likely to attract global funds towards non-US assets, providing room for valuation recovery in A-share equities [1] Group 2 - Two core investment themes identified are: new consumption and new services, focusing on high-income groups, the elderly, and consumers in lower-tier cities, as well as self-sufficiency sectors like semiconductors and AI computing chips [2] - The investment strategy for the new fund will involve a balanced approach, gradually increasing equity positions while controlling for volatility, aiming to capture opportunities from industry trends and fundamental improvements [2] - The market is expected to show greater breadth and depth in the second half of the year, with a focus on high-quality stocks that have clear fundamental improvements and reasonable valuations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-bank sector is expected to see significant investment opportunities due to high growth in performance and increased capital inflow from residents [1] - The insurance sector is projected to continue its growth in the first half of 2025, driven by a decrease in preset interest rates and improved value rates due to the integration of reporting [1] - Consumer finance companies have shown high growth in performance in the first half of the year, supported by a rapid decline in funding costs, indicating strong investment opportunities in this sector [1] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 28,700 billion yuan this week, up from 23,842 billion yuan previously, with a year-on-year increase of 81.96% [2] - As of August 22, 2025, the underwriting scale for IPOs and private placements reached 7,386.12 billion yuan, while corporate bonds and convertible bonds financing scales were 145.91 billion yuan and 338.27 billion yuan respectively [2] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending reached 21,468 billion yuan as of August 21, 2025, with a financing balance of 21,320 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - The insurance industry reported a total premium income of 37,350 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 39.22 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.23% compared to the beginning of the year [3] - The net assets of the insurance industry increased to 3.75 trillion yuan, showing a growth rate of 12.91% since the beginning of the year [3]

Trading Insights - The A-share market indices have reached a ten-year high, with financing balances and private equity scales increasing simultaneously, indicating a significant influx of new capital into the market. Stock ETFs have emerged as the preferred investment channel, with over 500 billion yuan in net subscriptions for ETFs in the past week, of which stock ETFs accounted for 230 billion yuan. The stock ETF market is expected to expand to 8 trillion yuan over the next five years [1][2] - As of August 22, the Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3,800 points for the first time in ten years, closing at 3,825.76 points, with a daily increase of 1.45%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.36%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25,467.1 billion yuan, marking the eighth consecutive trading day with volumes exceeding 20 trillion yuan, setting a historical record [1][2] Fund News - On August 22, two new funds were launched, primarily stock funds, with the BoShi ChiNext 50 Index A fund having an undisclosed fundraising target. A total of 46 funds distributed dividends, with the highest dividend payout from the JiaoYin ShiRui Double Benefit Bond Fund, distributing 0.92 yuan per 10 fund shares [2] - The public fund of funds (FOF) has seen a significant recovery, with an average return exceeding 9% this year, the best performance in five years. Industry experts predict a structurally strong stock market over the next three years, while the bond market may experience high volatility, prompting FOFs to increase equity allocations to enhance portfolio returns [2] - The scale of equity ETFs has surged, surpassing 4.11 trillion yuan, a historical high, with nearly 800 billion yuan added this year. This growth is attributed to policy guidance, market maturity, and product innovation, with expectations for further strategy enrichment and product iteration to enhance competitiveness [2] Fund Performance - The top-performing fund on August 22 was the FuGuo Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETF, with a daily growth rate of 10.0663%. Other notable performers included the NanFang and HuiTianFu Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETFs, with growth rates of 10.0416% and 10.0211%, respectively [5][6] - In the stock fund category, the top performer was the HuaBao Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index A, with a daily growth rate of 9.2495%. The leading bond fund was the HuaXia Convertible Bond Enhanced Bond A, with a growth rate of 3.3308% [5][6] - The top five funds across various categories, excluding leveraged and fixed-income funds, showed significant daily growth rates, indicating a robust performance across the board [5][6]

Market Review - The Chinese stock market continues to lead globally, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.6% and 3.5% respectively, and the Shanghai Index breaking a ten-year high, surpassing 3800 points [1] - The A-share trading volume has increased significantly, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan, and the financing buying ratio surpassing 11%, marking a new high since February 2020, indicating an enhanced market risk appetite [1][2] - Growth sectors such as semiconductors, CPO, and robotics remain strong, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index soaring by 13.31% [1] Market Outlook - Multiple sources of incremental capital are entering the market, signaling the beginning of a "slow bull" cycle for A-shares. The current bull market has evolved since "924," with long-term funds like insurance and pension funds continuously increasing their holdings in A-shares over the past three years [2] - Financing funds and private equity trading remain active, with foreign capital showing increased interest in A-shares. There are early signs of residents moving deposits, which could lead to sustained inflows into the market through ETFs, direct stock holdings, and public funds, becoming a key driver for the "slow bull" trend [2] - Focus on industry allocation towards new technologies and growth directions such as domestic computing power, robotics, and AI applications, alongside some large financial and new consumption sectors [2] Capital and Liquidity - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have signaled a dovish stance, increasing expectations for a rate cut in September. This has boosted market sentiment, with major U.S. stock indices reaching historical highs and a significant rise in the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index by 2.73% [3] - As of August 21, the A-share financing balance reached 2.14 trillion yuan, a 57% increase from the pre-"924" market conditions in 2024. The proportion of financing buying in A-share trading has risen from 7.5% to 11%, reflecting an effective increase in market risk appetite [3] - Long-term funds such as insurance, social security, and pension funds are crucial for strengthening strategic reserves and stabilizing the market. The proportion of A-share circulation held by insurance and pension funds has been steadily increasing [3] - There are indications of a "deposit migration" among residents, with M1 growth turning upward and non-bank deposits increasing significantly, suggesting that household funds may flow into the stock market as high-yield asset options diminish [3]

Core Insights - The A-share market has reached a nearly ten-year high, with significant inflows of incremental capital, particularly into stock ETFs, indicating a strong bullish trend [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 21, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3770.68 points and closed at 3771.1 points, marking a ten-year high [2] - A-shares have seen a total trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan for six consecutive trading days, with a peak of over 28 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance has also surpassed 20 trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days, indicating robust market activity [2] Group 2: ETF Inflows - Stock ETFs have become a crucial channel for institutional and individual investors, with net inflows of 522.07 billion yuan in the last week, including 230 billion yuan specifically for stock ETFs [4] - The total scale of stock ETFs reached 3.21 trillion yuan as of August 15, reflecting a 2.8% month-on-month increase and an 11.2% increase since the beginning of the year [4] Group 3: Investor Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in investor behavior, with private equity funds showing increased risk appetite and transitioning from passive contraction to moderate expansion [2][6] - Retail investors are increasingly attracted to equity assets, with a reported decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in household deposits in July, indicating a shift towards higher-yielding investments [7][8] Group 4: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the scale of stock ETFs in China could reach 8 trillion yuan over the next five years, driven by the ongoing influx of long-term capital [1][10] - The current market environment is expected to continue attracting funds, particularly into growth sectors such as technology, healthcare, and new energy [8][9]

Market Overview - The market temperature indicator reflects the PE ratio percentile of corresponding indices over the past ten years, with a total value of 100% [1] - As of August 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showed slight fluctuations, with the former increasing by 0.13% and the latter decreasing by 0.06% [1] Sector Performance - The top three sectors with net capital inflows include: - Retail: 350 million - Comprehensive: 127 million - Steel: 9 million - The sectors with the highest net capital outflows are: - Electronics: -9.703 billion - Machinery: -7.311 billion - Power Equipment: -5.750 billion [2] ETF Performance - The Chemical ETF showed a 0.70% increase, with a six-month rise of 11.20% [4] - The Financial Technology ETF increased by 1.04%, with a six-month rise of 17.37% [4] - The Consumer Leader ETF had a six-month increase of 4.19% [4] Financial Technology Sector - On August 21, 2025, the Financial Technology sector was notably active, with significant gains in digital currency and cross-border payment stocks, leading to a theme index increase of over 1% [6] - The influx of incremental capital and regulatory optimizations are expected to drive the Financial Technology sector's growth [6] Chemical Sector - The Chemical sector continued its upward trend, with the industry theme index closing up over 1% on August 21, 2025 [6] - The sector is anticipated to have significant upward elasticity due to the clearing of backward production capacity and an optimized competitive landscape [6]