固收+系列电话会 20260108 摘要 传统固收策略面临挑战，利率震荡加大，单边久期策略失效，信用利差 抬升空间有限，固收加策略受关注，但传统固收加板块容量有限，面临 缩量问题。 股债混合投资可优化风险回报，借鉴国际经验，如晨星 Core Plus Bond 基金，增加权益资产提升收益。中国权益市场长期收益可观，但 波动大，股债混合可实现较好风险回报，社保基金年均投资收益率达 7.39%。 中长期资金入市政策引导机构增加权益配置，大型险企每年新增保费 30%投资 A 股。截至 2025 年底，寿险公司股票和基金投资占比约 15%，预计每年千亿级别增量资金入市，对 A 股市场产生明显影响。 增量资金对低估值资产有快速修复作用，如 2024-2025 年银行板块因 估值低、股息高受保险资金青睐，PB 从 0.52 倍修复至 0.74 倍，累计 涨幅近 64%，表明增量资金对低估值资产价格修复效果显著。 中国权益资产在全球范围内具有较高性价比，截至 2025 年 11 月底， 沪深 300 指数 PE TTM 为 13.92 倍，远低于标普 500 指数的 28 倍，沪 深 300 估值有望重塑。 Q&A 今年（ ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that since June, the A-share market has entered a main rising phase, driven by technology, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index both rising over 60% to their current peaks. However, by October, the market began to show signs of consolidation, raising concerns about the potential end of the bull market [2][12] - Recent regulatory announcements regarding insurance, public funds, and securities firms have provided three major positive signals, boosting market confidence and supporting the A-share bull market into 2026 [2][12] Group 2 - Positive Policy I: The National Financial Regulatory Administration has lowered risk factors for insurance companies, encouraging long-term capital to enter the market. This adjustment reduces the minimum capital requirements for insurance companies holding stocks from the CSI 300, Low Volatility Dividend 100, and STAR Market, potentially releasing over 70 billion yuan in incremental capital for the bull market [3][13] - Positive Policy II: New performance assessment guidelines for public funds focus on actual investor returns, promoting public funds as patient capital. The guidelines include fee reductions, performance benchmarks, and long-term assessment metrics, which are expected to enhance the attractiveness of public funds and facilitate the inflow of more household savings into the market [4][14] - Positive Policy III: The relaxation of leverage restrictions for quality securities firms is anticipated, which may enhance capital utilization efficiency and profitability. This policy aims to shift the industry from price competition to value competition, potentially increasing the capital available for the bull market [5][15] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the combination of these three policies will accelerate the inflow of incremental capital from insurance, public funds, and securities firms, improving liquidity and reinforcing the foundation of the A-share bull market. The outlook for the 2026 bull market remains optimistic, supported by macro-level strategic backing, technological breakthroughs, and micro-level liquidity easing [8][16]

来源：21世纪经济报道 热点情报 A股增量资金来了 最新数据显示，私募行业在11月迎来了一波备案潮。根据私募排排网统计，截至2025年11月30日，11月共有1285只产品完成备 案，环比大增近三成。这一数据不仅延续了此前的回暖势头，更一举创下年内月度备案量的次高纪录。 除了增量资金，存量资金也持续加大进攻力度。 招商证券表示，年底年初增量资金将会更加充裕，12月是提前布局的时机。综合考虑季节性因素、国内外部流动性变化、增量资 金变化等，12月推荐大盘风格，可能先成长后价值。 创新药板块迎来利好消息 12月7日，2025年国家医保药品目录及首版商保创新药目录正式发布。 据悉，2025年国家医保药品目录成功新增114种药品，有50种是一类创新药，总体成功率88%，较2024年的76%明显提高；另外， 有19种药品纳入首版商保创新药目录，包括CAR-T类、T细胞治疗等先进治疗手段，也有短肠综合征、戈谢病等基本医保暂时无 法解决的罕见病治疗药物。 国家医保局、人力资源社会保障部表示，要积极推进商保创新药目录药品配备使用，积极推动商保创新药目录纳入商业健康保险 保障范围。 中泰证券发布研报表示，创新药仍是目前医药板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment by the Financial Regulatory Bureau to the risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments is seen as a positive signal for the capital market, encouraging long-term capital inflow and boosting market confidence [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Risk Factor Adjustments - The risk factor for insurance companies holding stocks in the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Low Volatility 100 Index for over three years has been reduced from 0.3 to 0.27 [2]. - The risk factor for insurance companies holding ordinary shares listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board for over two years has been lowered from 0.4 to 0.36 [2]. - The premium risk factor for export credit insurance and overseas investment insurance has been decreased from 0.467 to 0.42, and the reserve risk factor from 0.605 to 0.545 [2]. Capital Release and Investment Opportunities - The adjustment is expected to release approximately 1,086 billion yuan in incremental funds, enhancing the capacity for insurance companies to invest in blue-chip stocks and Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks [3][5]. - The reduction in risk factors will lower the capital required for insurance companies to invest in equities, thereby increasing their investment flexibility and capacity [4]. Encouragement of Long-term Investment - The regulatory changes aim to guide insurance capital to participate more actively in the equity market, particularly in technology innovation sectors, which will enhance market liquidity and support stable capital market development [7]. - Specific investment directions include high-dividend assets, technology sectors aligned with national strategic priorities, and broader index and industry ETF investments [7]. Policy Continuity - This adjustment is part of a series of measures aimed at promoting long-term investment by insurance funds, reinforcing their role as a stabilizing force in the capital market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed stability in early trading, but experienced a significant rally in the afternoon driven by non-bank sectors, particularly insurance and brokerage stocks, despite weakness in AI hardware stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The trading sentiment in the A-share market improved significantly, with the Fujian sector continuing to rise, indicating a willingness among speculative funds to buy [2]. - The insurance sector, represented by China Ping An, and brokerage stocks, represented by Zhongyin Securities, saw substantial increases, leading to a rapid rise in major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index [2][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies holding stocks in the CSI 300 and the CSI Low Volatility 100 indices, from 0.3 to 0.27 for holdings over three years, which is expected to expand the investment scale of insurance funds in A-shares [3]. Group 3: Trading Volume and Activity - A-share market trading volume reached 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 176.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day, reflecting a more than 10% rise in trading activity [4]. - The number of stocks with gains exceeding 9% in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surpassed one hundred, indicating heightened individual stock activity [4]. Group 4: Investment Themes - The main investment themes are diversifying, with brokerage stocks expected to remain active due to ongoing consolidation news and optimistic earnings forecasts [5]. - Resource stocks have begun to show activity, with copper and aluminum stocks breaking out of previous trading ranges, and gold stocks also becoming active [5]. - Other sectors such as commercial aerospace, food and beverage, and real estate are anticipated to attract incremental capital due to positive performance expectations and new policy developments [5].

截至2025年12月5日 09:41，30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.06%，最新价报114.23元。流动性方面，30年国 债ETF盘中换手1.83%，成交5.65亿元。拉长时间看，截至12月4日，30年国债ETF近1年日均成交83.20 亿元。 据Wind数据显示，规模方面，30年国债ETF最新规模达308.12亿元。资金流入方面，近22个交易日内有 13日资金净流入，合计"吸金"1.31亿元。 风险提示：中债-30年期国债财富(总值)指数(代码:CBA21801)来源于中债金融估值中心有限公司("中 债")。本基金为被动投资的交易型开放式指数基金，主要采用抽样复制策略，跟踪标的指数市场表现， 具有与标的指数所表征的市场相似的风险收益特征。投资者投资于本基金面临标的指数回报与相应市场 平均回报偏离、标的指数波动、跟踪误差控制未达约定目标、标的指数变更、指数编制机构停止服务、 成份券停牌或违约等潜在风险。本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投 资、兑付责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定 盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market shows signs of internal structural differentiation despite recent adjustments, with overall performance remaining relatively strong [2][3]. - The market is under pressure for correction when there is no incremental capital, but if sufficient new capital enters, the adjustment will be limited [5][6]. - Incremental capital is currently entering the A-share market, primarily from two major sources: repatriation of foreign capital and the real estate market [7]. Group 2 - The relationship between the real estate market and the stock market has reversed; previously, a strong real estate market was believed to drive stock market growth, but now they are seen as competing for limited capital [9]. - Data from the China Index Academy indicates that the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities fell by 0.84% month-on-month and 7.60% year-on-year in October, marking 42 consecutive months of month-on-month declines [9]. - The stock market has benefited from the outflow of funds from the real estate market, as individuals who sold properties have significant capital to invest in stocks [9][10]. Group 3 - Foreign capital has been a significant factor, with a notable sell-off of 400 billion yuan in domestic bonds in the third quarter, indicating a trend of foreign investors pulling out [11][12]. - The bond market has faced pressure due to foreign capital selling, which has limited its potential for growth [23]. - The current bull market is driven by liquidity, which not only supports the stock market but can also stimulate economic recovery [24][25]. Group 4 - The economic recovery is characterized by K-shaped differentiation, leading to a disconnect between macro data and individual experiences [26]. - Despite market adjustments, the stock market is expected to reach new highs, but many investors struggle to profit due to their reactive investment strategies [27]. - A diversified investment approach, such as the "three-part method," is recommended to balance risks and returns across different asset classes [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by fundamental improvements and the potential for AI industry catalysis to enhance net asset return rates, leading to higher market valuations [1][3][4]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, with major indices reaching new highs, including the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 29.37%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 30.22%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 25.83% as of November 4 [2][3]. - Despite a notable adjustment in April and a recent high in October, the market is currently in a phase of high-level fluctuations, raising questions about its ability to maintain upward momentum into 2026 [2][3]. Fundamental Improvements - Predictions indicate that the revenue growth rate for non-financial Chinese companies listed overseas could reach 4% in 2026, with operating profit growth expected to be 13%, driven by cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and AI applications [3][4]. - Current valuations of the Hong Kong stock market are considered low, particularly in the tech sector, providing ample room for upward movement [3][4]. Capital Inflows - There is a high certainty of incremental capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 1.27 trillion HKD in 2025, marking a historical high [4][5]. - The inflow of foreign capital is expected to improve, as foreign investors are currently underweight in Chinese equity assets, and signs of a return of foreign capital are emerging [4][5]. Sector Focus - The technology sector is anticipated to be the main focus for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, benefiting from industry development and policy support, particularly in AI [6][7]. - There is also a recommendation to pay attention to innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms, as the innovative drug sector is transitioning from investment to realization of results, and brokerages are expected to maintain high growth due to ongoing industry consolidation [6][7].

Core Viewpoints - The capital market is undergoing profound changes in its underlying logic, with a significant increase in the attractiveness of equity asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment, indicating a positive development cycle ahead for the market [2][15] - The brokerage sector is expected to see performance growth potential and high cost-performance value recovery in the new cycle, with current A and H share valuations still at mid-low levels [2][6] Capital Market Building a "New Ecology" - The capital market is experiencing top-down reforms aimed at creating a healthy balance between investment and financing, with the central government elevating its strategic importance [3][18] - Policies such as the "New National Nine Articles" and the "1+N" policy system are being implemented to encourage companies to increase dividends and buybacks, enhance the delisting mechanism, and stimulate mergers and acquisitions [3][19] Incremental Capital Forming a "Positive Cycle" - Long-term funds are steadily flowing into the market, with significant increases in new account openings and private fund registrations, indicating a robust influx of incremental capital [4][36] - The total number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20.15 million in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase [41] Brokerage Business Reaching a "New Level" - The brokerage sector has seen a substantial expansion in market capacity, with a 68% year-on-year increase in net profit for listed brokerages in the first nine months of 2025 [5][16] - The A-share daily trading volume is expected to stabilize at around 2 trillion yuan, supported by strong new account openings and record-high financing balances [5][16] Positive Outlook for Brokerage Performance and High Cost-Performance Opportunities - The long-term upward trend in the capital market remains unchanged, with an expected industry ROE of 7.7% in 2026 under neutral conditions [6][17] - Current valuations for large and small A-share brokerages are still at historical mid-low levels, indicating significant potential for value recovery [6][17] Encouraging Dividends and Buybacks, Moving Towards a Mature Market - The 2024 dividend payout ratio is expected to reach 45%, with buyback amounts hitting 165.9 billion yuan, both setting historical highs [23][24] - The capital market is transitioning towards a more mature structure, with equity financing scales aligning more closely with those of mature markets [24][29] Enhancing Company Quality through Mergers and Acquisitions - The number of significant mergers and acquisitions has surged, with nearly 100 major deals in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total for 2021-2024 [33][34] - Policies are being implemented to facilitate mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the quality of listed companies and supporting the transformation of the real economy [33][34] Long-term Funds Entering the Market, Laying a Foundation for Stability - Long-term funds such as social security and pension funds are steadily growing, providing a solid foundation for the market [37][38] - The total assets of social security funds increased from 1.5 trillion yuan at the end of 2014 to 3.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating robust growth [37][38] Optimizing Foreign Capital Systems, Enhancing Allocation Space - The QFII system has undergone significant reforms to enhance the participation of foreign investors, with various measures implemented to simplify cross-border capital flow management [50]

Core Viewpoint - The securities brokerage sector is experiencing a decline, with the CSI All Share Securities Company Index down by 2.37% as of September 23, 2025, while the ETF tracking this index shows significant inflows and performance metrics indicating potential for recovery [1][2]. Market Performance - As of September 22, the non-bank financial sector rose by 0.81%, but has seen a decline of over 8% since the peak on August 25 [2]. - The brokerage ETF has recorded a recent average daily trading volume of 17.98 billion yuan over the past month, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [1]. ETF Metrics - The brokerage ETF's latest scale reached 34.998 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking second among comparable funds [1]. - The ETF's shares have also reached a one-year high of 59.338 billion shares, making it the leading fund in terms of share volume [1]. - Over the past 18 days, the ETF has seen continuous net inflows, totaling 6.482 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 1.262 billion yuan [1]. Performance Analysis - The brokerage ETF has achieved a net value increase of 50.75% over the past year [1]. - The highest monthly return since inception was 38.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and the highest cumulative gain during that period being 28.47% [1]. Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions, characterized by active trading and ample liquidity, indicate a potential for further growth in the brokerage sector despite recent adjustments [2]. - The influx of new capital into the market is expected to enhance performance and valuation opportunities for brokerages, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [2].