Group 1 - The podcast "Pacific Polarity" features Kurt Tong discussing the evolution of U.S. foreign policy in Asia, particularly regarding tariffs and trade agreements [1][2] - Kurt Tong predicts that the U.S. will engage in multiple bilateral trade agreements this year, as the desire to maintain high tariffs has diminished due to public discontent and inflation concerns [2][5] - The U.S. remains a major source of foreign direct investment and technology, but there is a political contradiction regarding overseas investments by American companies [4][5] Group 2 - There is a growing political focus on the need for more domestic manufacturing in the U.S., especially in traditional industries, as voters in key regions are affected by the decline of manufacturing jobs [5][6] - The perception that companies are "exporting jobs" overseas creates a political dilemma, as there is a desire to keep manufacturing in the U.S. despite potential cost implications [5][6] - The current political environment is pushing for a reevaluation of trade and investment policies, influenced by protectionist sentiments and the desire to bring jobs back to America [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The ADP report indicates a surprising decline in private sector employment in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [3][4]. Employment Data Summary - In June, U.S. private sector jobs decreased by 33,000, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][7]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job gains, with a total increase of 32,000 in production jobs, partially offsetting the overall decline [8]. Economic Sentiment and Future Outlook - Employers are becoming increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focusing on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average job growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700, the lowest since the early pandemic [10]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to a four-year low, indicating a potential shift in economic sentiment [10]. Wage Growth and Employment Trends - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [10]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-01原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1. 美国财政部长贝森特周一在接受彭博电视采访时表示，他对特朗普的全面税收法案将向前推进充满信心，预计 总统将在7月4日前签署该法案。贝森特将这项立法描述为"解决债务问题的开始"，并表示，"我们将扭转形 势，降低债务水平。"他还对"法案削减医疗补助计划的想法表示反对。"当被问及增加长期美债发行占比时， 贝森特反问道："我们为什么要这么做？"他指出，"合适的时机本应是2021、2022年"。贝森特去年曾多次 批评时任财长耶伦在发行中依赖短期美债，称此举旨在压低长期借贷成本以在选举前刺激经济。但自上任以来， 他却延续了耶伦的债务发行策略。 2. 美国总统特朗普周一继续敦促美联储放松货币政策，向主席鲍威尔发送了一张世界各国央行的利率清单，上面 有他的亲笔批注，称美国利率应介于日本的 0.5% 和丹麦的 1.75% 之间，并告诉鲍威尔"他一如既往地'动作 太慢'"。"你应该大幅降息。我们正在损失数千亿美元，" ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a strong rebound after hitting a low in April, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a market capitalization increase of over $10 trillion in less than three months, marking the shortest record for the index to recover from a drop of more than 15% to a new high [1] - Historical data indicates that July is typically one of the best-performing months for U.S. stocks, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming key events [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, strongly advocated by Trump, is facing a critical vote in the Senate, with the White House aiming for its signing before July 4 [3] - The bill passed the House with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes and is currently under Senate review, where it advanced with a procedural vote of 51 to 49 [3] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill will increase federal debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade and proposes raising the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, a historic increase [3] Group 3: Trade Policy and Market Impact - Trump's announcement to suspend trade negotiations with Canada led to a significant short-term drop in U.S. stocks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade negotiation news [4] - The 90-day tariff suspension period is set to expire on July 9, with Trump indicating no intention to extend it [4] - The current market environment is characterized by "extreme policy uncertainty," with potential pressures on the U.S. economy from tariff policies manifesting as price increases, declining corporate profits, or reduced business investment [4]

美元在2025年上半年遭遇1973年以来最惨烈的开局。 今年前六个月，美元指数跌幅高达10.8%，这一衡量美元兑包括英镑、欧元和日元在内的六种货币篮子强度的指标，创下自1973年金本位制布雷 顿森林体系终结以来的最差年初表现，也是自2009年以来任何六个月期间的最疲软表现。 1973年上半年，美元创下14.8%的历史跌幅，当时理查德·尼克松担任美国总统。 特朗普的贸易和经济政策正促使全球投资者重新思考对这一主导货币的敞口，并转向其他代替选项。其中，欧元兑美元汇率上涨13%至1.17美元 上方，打破华尔街年初平价预测。 "美元已经成为特朗普2.0版本反复无常政策的替罪羊。"ING外汇策略师Francesco Pesole指出，特朗普反复无常的关税战、美国庞大的借贷需求以 及对美联储独立性的担忧，都削弱了美元作为投资者"避险天堂"的吸引力。 周一，美元再度下跌0.6%，当时美国参议院正准备开始就特朗普的《大漂亮法案》的修正案进行投票。这项里程碑式的立法预计将在未来十年内 为美国债务增加3.2万亿美元，引发了对华盛顿借贷可持续性的担忧，并引发了美国国债市场的抛售潮。 市场预期大幅反转 美元的持续下跌让年初的广泛预测 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：前景的不确定性不仅仅是由贸易政策驱动的。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：离贸易政策的完全明朗化还需要时间。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：贸易政策的走向仍有很多不确定性。 ...

的财政赤字抬高以及美元信用边际受损仍利多金价，联储官员继续释放鸽派降息信号或提振白银工业属性 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 ，进而打开银价进一步的上行空间。短期注意回调风险，沪金2508合约关注区间：750-780元/克；沪银250 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 8合约关注区间：8700-9000元/千克。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 贵金属产业日报 2025-06-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 767.58 | 1.18 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8762 | -30 | | | 主力合约持仓 ...

"中国不断降低外资准入门槛，致力于营造公平、透明、可预期的营商环境，为外企提供了绝佳的投资 机会。"万宝盛华集团执行副总裁兼首席财务官杰克·麦金尼斯说，中国是全球最优秀的人力资源市场之 一，深耕中国市场至关重要。 空客A310飞机保护活化利用项目开始施工、菲尼克斯电气中国公司第二基地全价值链超级工厂项目在 江苏南京开工……今年上半年，跨国公司持续加快在华投资布局。本届论坛上，更多外国企业展现出加 大对华投资的强烈信心。 荷兰路易达孚集团全球首席执行官高启表示，中国是路易达孚最重要的市场之一，去年公司在中国市场 销售额约占全球销售额的1/4。过去几年，路易达孚在中国设立研发中心等，持续加大投资。"当前，中 国市场作为世界经济一支稳定的力量，其重要性比以往更为突显。"高启说。 美国分析与数字解决方案企业伊克赛尔服务控股主席兼首席执行官罗希特·卡普尔认为，当今世界需要 协作，需要建立开放伙伴关系。中国是全球第二大经济体，在广阔国内消费市场、产供链多元化的支撑 下，中国经济发展稳定且韧性十足，各方在同中国的合作中受益。 6月24日至26日，第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛在天津举行，吸引了来自90多个国家和地区的1700余名嘉 ...