结合近期人民币汇率表现，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向北京商报记者解释了原因。王青指出，10月 15日人民币汇率中间价突破7.10关口，直接原因是隔夜美元下行；另一方面，近期外部波动加大，也需 要相应增强稳汇市的力度，这有助于稳定市场信心。整体上看，近期在美元指数震荡上行、全球汇市波 动加大过程中，人民币中间价向偏强方向调整力度有所加大。 同日，在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双升值。截至当日17时45分，在岸人民币对美元报 7.1267，日内升值幅度为0.17%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1301，日内升值幅度为0.14%。2025年以来，在 岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率升值幅度均超过2%，分别为2.37%、2.82%。 三大人民币汇率报价全线升值的同时，美元指数跌至99下方。截至10月15日17时45分，美元指数报 98.8482，日内下跌幅度为0.21%。在经历了2025年上半年的连续下跌后，近期美元指数多集中在100下 方波动，年内最低在9月跌至96.2179。2025年10月以来，美元指数升值幅度为1%，但年内整体贬值幅 度仍然接近9%。 三大人民币汇率报价全线升值，人民币汇率中间价再创阶段性高点。1 ...

10月15日，人民币兑美元中间价小幅上调26点至7.0995元，创2024年11月6日以来新高。 人民币汇率中间价调升受内外因素共振驱动。整体上看，近期在全球汇市波动加大过程中，人民币中间 价向偏强方向调整的力度有所加大。 美联储主席释放降息信号，美元指数失守关键点位 从近期人民币汇率变动情况来看，美元兑人民币汇率多数时间跟随美元指数走势，但在贬值压力增加时 则颇有韧性。近期人民币升值最直接的推力来自美元的走弱。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉新京报贝壳财经记者，10月15日，人民币汇率中间价上调的直接原因 是隔夜美元指数的下行。 10月14日晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在公开讲话中，重申了美国就业市场面临"相当大"的下行风险，这一 表态巩固了市场对美联储本月将继续降息的预期。他还表示，美联储未来几个月可能会停止缩减资产负 债表。 鲍威尔释放的信号加重了美元的压力，美元随后震荡走软，当天美元指数下跌0.23%。9月以来，美元 指数呈现震荡下行的走势特征，指数中枢延续趋势性回落态势。 中国银行研究院研究员吴丹对新京报贝壳财经记者表示，中美贸易争端升级引发市场情绪波动，美元指 数承压。叠加美联储降息预期升温、特朗普政府 ...

从近期人民币汇率变动情况来看，美元兑人民币汇率多数时间跟随美元指数走势，但在贬值压力增加时 则颇有韧性。近期人民币升值最直接的推力来自美元的走弱。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青告诉新京报贝壳财经记者，10月15日，人民币汇率中间价上调的直接原因 是隔夜美元指数的下行。 10月14日晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在公开讲话中，重申了美国就业市场面临"相当大"的下行风险，这一 表态巩固了市场对美联储本月将继续降息的预期。他还表示，美联储未来几个月可能会停止缩减资产负 债表。 鲍威尔释放的信号加重了美元的压力，美元随后震荡走软，当天美元指数下跌0.23%。9月以来，美元 指数呈现震荡下行的走势特征，指数中枢延续趋势性回落态势。 10月15日，人民币兑美元中间价小幅上调26点至7.0995元，创2024年11月6日以来新高。 人民币汇率中间价调升受内外因素共振驱动。整体上看，近期在全球汇市波动加大过程中，人民币中间 价向偏强方向调整的力度有所加大。 美联储主席释放降息信号，美元指数失守关键点位 中国银行研究院研究员吴丹对新京报贝壳财经记者表示，中美贸易争端升级引发市场情绪波动，美元指 数承压。叠加美联储降息预期升温、特朗普政府 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) signals a strong stabilization, with the central parity rate rising above 7.10 for the first time since late October of the previous year, indicating a potential new round of RMB appreciation [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - On October 15, the RMB central parity rate was reported at 7.0995, an increase of 26 points from the previous day, marking a significant upward movement [1]. - The offshore RMB against the US dollar saw a sharp increase, rising approximately 200 points within the day, while the onshore RMB remained stable around 7.12 [2]. - Key indicators reflecting domestic dollar liquidity, such as the year-on-year growth rate of foreign exchange deposits in domestic financial institutions, have surpassed the threshold of 6%-10%, suggesting the RMB is entering an appreciation cycle [2]. Group 2: Supportive Factors for RMB Stability - Multiple factors are expected to support the RMB's stability and potential appreciation, including the acceleration of new policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan, which will help stabilize economic operations [3]. - The overall market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with a notable convergence of the central parity rate and onshore spot rates, indicating a reduction in divergence and a stable market outlook [4]. Group 3: USD Index Trends - The USD index has rebounded over 3% since the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18, reaching a two-month high, driven by global uncertainties that enhance its safe-haven appeal [5]. - Analysts suggest that the recent strength of the USD index is largely a result of weakness in other currencies, particularly the euro and yen, influenced by domestic issues in Europe and expectations of monetary easing in Japan [5]. - Despite the current strength of the USD index, experts express concerns about its long-term outlook, citing risks associated with the prolonged government shutdown and potential impacts on economic data [6].

周三（10月15日）亚洲时段，美元延续下滑跌破99关口，最新美元指数报98.933，跌幅0.11%，周二 （10月14日）晚间美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔释放信号称，10月降息仍在考虑之中，量化紧缩政策也可 能接近尾声，美元随后震荡走软，美元指数险守99关口上方，最终收跌0.21%，报99.05。 美国政府停摆导致美联储制定货币政策所依赖的关键经济数据中断发布，这也意味着市场失去了预判美 联储动向的常规工具。在市场普遍认为"无数据即无政策行动"的预期下——至少对美联储即将召开的会 议如此，这种不确定性反而助推美元走强。 美元指数技术分析 从技术上来看，美指周二上涨在99.50之下遇阻，下跌在98.95之上受到支持，意味着美元短线上涨后有 可能保持下跌的走势。如果美指今天上涨在99.35之下遇阻，后市下跌的目标将会指向98.85--98.70之 间。今天美元走势短线阻力在99.30--99.35，短线重要阻力在99.60--99.65。今天美指短线支持在98.85- -98.90，短线重要支持在98.70--98.75。 鲍威尔指出停摆前数据显示经济增长可能超预期，但他同时强调"美国就业市场下行风险已有所加剧"。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index decreased by 0.21% to 99.05, indicating a general weakening of the dollar against other currencies [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.33% against the dollar, reaching a rate of 1.1608 [1] - The British pound fell by 0.10% to 1.3322 against the dollar, while the Australian dollar declined by 0.45% to 0.6486 [1] - The US dollar gained 0.06% against the Canadian dollar, with a rate of 1.4045, and decreased by 0.39% against the Swiss franc, reaching 0.8010 [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.02%, influenced by positive comments from ECB President Lagarde which strengthened the euro and negatively impacted the dollar [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is bearish for the dollar, with potential negative implications for the US economy if prolonged [1] - The US September NFIB small business optimism index fell -2.0 to 98.8, below expectations of 100.6, indicating weaker small business sentiment [3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - The US-China trade conflict has escalated, with China sanctioning five US units of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean Co., reflecting ongoing tit-for-tat measures [3] - The trade tensions have broader implications for the global economy, as vessels are responsible for over 80% of international trade [3] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Outlook - The euro is up by +0.10% after recovering from early losses, supported by ECB President Lagarde's optimistic remarks about the Eurozone economy [4] - The German October ZEW expectations of economic growth survey rose +2.0 to 39.3, although this was weaker than the expected 41.1 [5] - Political uncertainty in France, with a potential no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Lecornu, is putting pressure on the euro [5]

Group 1 - The core message indicates that the U.S. job market is facing increasing risks, prompting the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate cuts to stabilize the economy [1] - Anna Paulson, the new president of the Philadelphia Fed, suggests that tariffs may raise inflation but their impact is not as lasting as previously expected, influencing future monetary policy discussions [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that President Trump plans to meet at the end of October to ease tensions caused by tariff threats and export controls [1] Group 2 - Thierry Wizman, a foreign exchange and interest rate strategist, notes that trade tensions could affect the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) upcoming interest rate decisions [1] - If high tariffs are still a possibility by October 29, the FOMC may be less inclined to cut rates, especially with U.S. inflation remaining "sticky" [1]

她补充说，如果经济像我预期的那样发展，我们今明两年的货币政策调整将足以使劳动力市场状况接近 充分就业。 周二（10月14日）亚市早盘，美元延续上一交易日上行态势，最新美元指数报99.277，涨幅0.02%，美 联储"新人"支持今年再降息两次，昨日美元指数回升至99关口上方，最终收涨0.44%，报99.263。 美元指数技术分析 2026年FOMC票委、费城联储主席保尔森暗示，她倾向于今年再降息两次，每次25个基点，因为货币政 策在制定时应忽略关税对消费者价格上涨所带来的影响。 保尔森表示："对我而言，关键在于，我没有看到那种可能使关税引发的物价上涨演变为持续性通胀的 条件——尤其是在劳动力市场方面。" 保尔森说，政策制定者上个月降息25个基点的决定是"有道理的"。 在货币政策适度紧缩的情况下，她主张按照美联储上一份经济预测摘要的思路放松货币政策。这些预测 的中位数支持美联储在年底前再降息两次，每次25个基点。 从技术面来看，美元指数(DXY)初步阻力位见于99.563。若突破该水平，可能为指数打开上行通道，向 8月1日高点100.257迈进。 下行方面，美元走势支撑位首先见于98.714(斐波那契水平)，其次 ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，10月13日纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.43%报99.26，非美货币多数下跌，欧元兑美元跌0.45% 报1.1570，英镑兑美元跌0.20%报1.3334，澳元兑美元涨0.60%报0.6515，美元兑日元涨0.76%报 152.3140，美元兑加元涨0.25%报1.4037，美元兑瑞郎涨0.62%报0.8041。 ...