主动去库报表出清，万商联盟持续推进 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 7,067 | 3,625 | 3,625 | 3,988 | | 增长率（%） | 0.5 | -48.7 | 0.0 | 10.0 | | 经调整净利润 | 1,623 | 550 | 555 | 628 | | 增长率（%） | 35.5 | -66.1 | 1.0 | 13.0 | | EPS(基于经调整净利润） | 0.48 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.19 | | P/E(基于经调整净利润） | 17 | 49 | 49 | 43 | | P/B | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 3 日收盘价,汇率 1HKD=0.89RMB） 珍酒李渡（6979.HK）公告点评 2026 年 03 月 04 日 | 推荐 | ...

珍酒李渡（6979.HK）公告点评 主动去库报表出清，万商联盟持续推进 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 7,067 | 3,625 | 3,625 | 3,988 | | 增长率（%） | 0.5 | -48.7 | 0.0 | 10.0 | | 经调整净利润 | 1,623 | 550 | 555 | 628 | | 增长率（%） | 35.5 | -66.1 | 1.0 | 13.0 | | EPS(基于经调整净利润） | 0.48 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.19 | | P/E(基于经调整净利润） | 17 | 49 | 49 | 43 | | P/B | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 3 日收盘价,汇率 1HKD=0.89RMB） 2026 年 03 月 04 日 | 推荐 | ...

2月27日，珍酒李渡发布盈利预警公告。当中披露，公司实现收入约人民币35.5亿元至人民币37亿元， 同比减少47.7%至49.8%；公司权益股东应占利润约人民币5.2亿元至人民币5.8亿元，同比减少56.1%至 60.6%。 （企业公告） (编辑：林辰) 万商联盟模式的持续推进。自2025年6月推出万商联盟模式及2025年9月采纳联盟商权益支付计划以来， 本公司在促进销售、吸引优质经销商及提升珍酒品牌知名度方面取得显著进展。2026年，公司将继续将 该业务模式作为关键战略优先事项大力推进，预期于同年带来可观的收入贡献。 优化渠道库存。公司在2025年下半年为降低渠道库存付出巨大努力，旨在为2026年的业务发展打下坚实 基础，尽管此举会对2025年收入产生一定影响。本公司计划进一步将资源投放于市场开发及消费者培 育，从而加速渠道週转，巩固在核心地区市场的竞争地位。 捕捉新增消费需求。本公司将继续加快以次高端及以下价位产品深化县乡市场的渗透率，并扩大在生日 及婚宴等社交场合的占有率。 上述减少主要是由于市场需求减弱导致白酒消费，特别是在商务及社交宴请以及送礼场合的消费有所下 降。该减少部分亦由于2025年下半年本 ...

Core Insights - The live broadcast by Wu Xiangdong, chairman of Zhenjiu Lidou Group, attracted significant attention with a total viewership of 9.78 million and a peak concurrent audience of 380,000, indicating a shift in influence comparable to major internet figures [2][8] - The event is seen as a pivotal moment for the liquor industry, showcasing innovative business models during a period of transformation [2][6] Sales Performance - Zhenjiu Lidou achieved a remarkable revenue of 580 million yuan within 200 days, making it the top-selling new product in the mid-to-high-end segment, a feat accomplished in less than six months [4][6] - The "Wanshang Alliance" model facilitated this success, with over 3,800 alliance merchants signed and 71 forums held, attracting more than 9,400 participants [6][10] Business Model and Strategy - The Wanshang Alliance's rapid growth is attributed to strict price control mechanisms and a five-tier supervision system, which has maintained stable pricing for Zhenjiu Lidou products [6][10] - Wu Xiangdong's personal communication with alliance merchants through 22 letters has fostered a strong community spirit, redefining traditional manufacturer-merchant relationships [7][11] Personal Branding - Wu Xiangdong's personal video account has become a phenomenon, ranking first in influence among entrepreneurs, surpassing notable figures like Yu Minhong and Zhou Hongyi [8][9] - His video content has garnered over 300 million views, with multiple videos exceeding 10 million views, showcasing his effective engagement with the audience [10][11] Future Plans - The company aims to optimize its alliance merchant network, targeting over 5,000 high-quality merchants, and to enhance organizational capabilities [14][15] - Zhenjiu Lidou plans to launch four major product lines, including a flagship liquor aiming for 30 billion yuan in sales, a premium beer, and health-focused beverages [15][17] - The establishment of Zhenjiu Winery is part of the long-term vision to become a leading global beverage company [17]

Core Insights - The forum held on November 27, 2025, in Beijing focused on the development of the Chinese economy, featuring prominent scholars and business leaders discussing industry trends and innovations [1] Company Insights - Wu Xiangdong, Chairman of Zhenjiu Lidu Group, emphasized the importance of innovation in the liquor industry during periods of adjustment, highlighting the coexistence of challenges and opportunities in the market [2] - Zhenjiu Lidu introduced the "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance Model" in May, centered around "super innovation" and aimed at restructuring manufacturer relationships to create long-term value [2] - The company has successfully hosted 71 "Zunyi Forums," attracting over 9,000 participants and signing more than 3,900 alliance merchants, showcasing its commitment to building a collaborative ecosystem [4] - The "Da Zhen·Zhen Jiu" product has achieved significant market success, ranking as the top-selling new mid-to-high-end liquor across 30 provinces and 250 cities [4] - Wu Xiangdong's personal video account has garnered over 240 million views, with several videos exceeding 10 million views, establishing a strong brand communication channel [4] Industry Insights - The liquor industry's cyclical fluctuations serve as a test of companies' innovation capabilities, with Zhenjiu Lidu committed to long-termism and enhancing resilience for high-quality development [10]

Core Insights - The company is focusing on building a comprehensive ecosystem centered around its flagship product "Da Zhen. Zhen Jiu" to navigate the challenges in the liquor industry and reshape the competitive landscape [2][12] Group 1: Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan - On September 10, the company announced the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan," allocating up to 169 million shares corresponding to economic benefits to incentivize qualified alliance merchants for sustainable growth [3][5] - This plan aims to deeply bind the interests of alliance merchants with the company, transforming them from mere sellers to partners in business development, enhancing loyalty and stability in the distribution channels [5][7] - The first batch of alliance merchants has received approximately 150,000 yuan in additional equity rewards, attracting quality distributors to promote "Da Zhen. Zhen Jiu" in the market [7] Group 2: Launch of "Da Zhen. Zhen Jiu" - "Da Zhen. Zhen Jiu" was officially launched on September 19, achieving sales of 100,000 boxes and revenue of 370 million yuan during a 100-day trial period [8][10] - The product is developed with the involvement of 32 national and provincial liquor judges, using a blend of 5-year premium base liquor and 20-year rare aged liquor, allowing it to compete with products priced at 3,600 yuan while being priced at 600 yuan [10] Group 3: Innovative Business Model - The "Wan Shang Alliance" model, tailored for "Da Zhen. Zhen Jiu," has become a significant innovation in the liquor industry, ensuring a sustainable channel ecosystem through controlled pricing and continuous dividend mechanisms [12] - As of September 23, over 7,000 participants attended the Wan Shang Alliance forums, with more than 3,000 clients successfully signing up as alliance merchants, leading to nationwide sales across 30 provinces and 212 cities [12] Group 4: Entrepreneurial Branding - The company is leveraging the personal brand of its chairman, Wu Xiangdong, who has been actively engaging with distributors and consumers through various media, enhancing the brand's visibility and credibility [13][14] - Wu's influence has become a new engine for brand communication, significantly increasing awareness and reputation for "Da Zhen. Zhen Jiu" and the Wan Shang Alliance model [14] Group 5: Future Outlook - The combination of equity incentives, flagship product development, innovative business models, and personal branding is expected to create a robust ecosystem centered around "Da Zhen. Zhen Jiu," positioning it as a potential phenomenon in the liquor industry [14]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 10.07 HKD, with a transaction volume of 61.3 million HKD, following the announcement of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" aimed at promoting long-term sustainable growth [1][1][1] Group 1 - The "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" will initially set economic benefits corresponding to no more than 169 million shares, with the board having the authority to increase this based on circumstances [1][1] - As of now, 2,418 customers have signed up to become alliance merchants since the launch of the "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance Plan" in May [1][1] - The second phase of the "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance" is set to launch between September and December, with the first grant of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" expected in September [1][1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities highlights the strategic launch of the major product "Dazhen" in June 2025, which, along with the innovative "Ten Thousand Merchants Alliance" model, could become a new growth driver for the company, with a mid-term target of reaching 6 billion RMB [1][1] - The company is viewed as having turned around from a situation of poor performance, with the "Dazhen product" becoming a phenomenon, leading to expectations of exceeding mid to long-term performance forecasts [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 10.07 HKD with a transaction volume of 61.30 million HKD, following the announcement of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" aimed at promoting long-term sustainable growth [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - The "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" is set to allocate economic benefits corresponding to no more than 169 million shares, with the board having the authority to increase this based on circumstances [1] - As of now, 2,418 customers have signed up to become alliance merchants under the "Wanshang Alliance Plan" initiated in May [1] - The second phase of the Wanshang Alliance will commence between September and December, with the first grant of the "Alliance Merchant Rights Payment Plan" expected in September [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Zheshang Securities (601878) highlights the launch of the strategic flagship product "Dazhen" in June 2025, which, along with the innovative Wanshang Alliance model, is anticipated to become a new growth driver for the company [1] - The mid-term target for "Dazhen" is projected to reach a scale of 6 billion RMB, driven by outstanding team capabilities and three major innovations [1] - The company is viewed as having turned around from a situation of poor performance, with the "Dazhen product" becoming a phenomenon, leading to expectations of exceeding mid-to-long-term performance forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in H1 2025 met expectations, with a decline in cash collection and overall stable profitability. New products, models, and marketing strategies are expected to drive growth improvement in the second half of the year [1]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 40%, and an adjusted net profit of 610 million yuan, also down 40%. The overall gross margin was 59.0%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 24.6%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The pre-collection of customer payments decreased sequentially, with amounts at the end of H1 2024, H2 2024, and H1 2025 being 1.79 billion yuan, 1.75 billion yuan, and 1.43 billion yuan respectively, indicating current operational pressures in the industry [2]. Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in H1 2025 showed a significant decline: Zhenjiu at 1.49 billion yuan (-45%), Lidu at 610 million yuan (-9%), Xiangjiao at 280 million yuan (-39%), and Kaikouxiao at 80 million yuan (-64%). Lidu's performance was driven by the growth of mid-range products [3]. - Revenue by price segment indicated declines for high-end white liquor (-47%), next-high-end (-42%), and mid-range and below (-31%), with high-end and next-high-end segments experiencing a year-on-year decrease in market share due to weak demand and ongoing drinking policies [3]. Strategic Response - Since H2 2024, the company has faced significant downward pressure in the liquor industry, maintaining a cautious shipping pace to alleviate channel inventory pressure. The company is launching new products and adopting innovative business models, such as the "Wanshang Alliance" model, to enhance marketing and customer engagement [4]. - The introduction of new products and a lower comparative base are expected to lead to improved performance growth in the second half of the year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience and strategic adjustments of Zhenjiu Lidu in the face of industry challenges, showcasing its strong performance and potential for future growth [1][4][13]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhenjiu Lidu achieved a revenue of 2.497 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 613 million yuan [1][4]. - The gross profit margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59%, maintaining growth for three consecutive years [4]. - The adjusted net profit margin remained stable at 24.6% compared to the same period last year, indicating ongoing improvements in operational quality [4]. Market Strategy - Zhenjiu Lidu is implementing proactive adjustments to navigate the industry's challenges, focusing on "bending the curve" to enhance its market position [3][5]. - The company is maintaining a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices, with a ton price of 273,700 yuan, reflecting a commitment to price stability [4][5]. - The introduction of the "Wan Shang Alliance" model aims to create a new ecosystem for distribution channels, attracting over 6,100 potential clients and signing more than 2,000 [10][12]. Product Development - The launch of the "Dazhen" product and the new craft beer "Niu Shi News" reflects Zhenjiu Lidu's strategy to create cultural IPs that resonate with younger consumers [6][12]. - The company is focusing on differentiating its products through unique pricing strategies and cultural narratives, appealing to both traditional and new consumer bases [8][12]. Industry Positioning - Zhenjiu Lidu's performance and innovative practices position it as a model for other companies in the industry, especially during a period of market adjustment [13][15]. - The company's successful listing and performance have instilled confidence in the capital market, potentially encouraging more liquor companies to pursue similar paths [15].