上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 中信证券：供给在内"反内卷"，需求在外出利润 如果"反内卷"和出海逻辑结合，会产生什么投资线索？我们梳理了今年以来四个因为出口管制或配额导致出口 利润贡献激增的行业（例如稀土、钴、磷肥、制冷剂），发现历史上通过控制供给或出口来控制全球市场价格 并提升稳态利润是可行的，但共性是需要生产国在全球拥有极高份额和附带的议价能力。去年底铝材、铜材等 行业取消出口退税，虽然被动提高了现金成本，但也出现了一定的价格转嫁。这些现象背后的本质是稀缺资源 和战略优质产能在未来要逐步从份额争夺开始步入利润变现。 中国制造业增加值全球占比已经超过30%，产业结构升级也有长足进步，但利润率仍呈现逐年下降趋势，卷份 额已经步入尾声，且未来面临越来越多的贸易摩擦风险，利用全球份额变现利润才是核心议题。供给在内"反 内卷"、需求在外出利润，这可能是未来一条相当重要的中长期投资线索。配置上，短期依然建议继续聚焦创 新药、资源、通信、军工和游戏五大行业，避免过多高切低交易。 中国银河：A股新稳态进一步确立 投资者加速入场，居民财富向金融资产加速再配 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a "three-headed bull" market outlook, consisting of a short-term liquidity bull market, a medium-term fundamental bull market, and a long-term transition from old to new economic drivers [2][4][5] - The short-term liquidity bull market is driven by external factors such as a weak US dollar and internal factors like the rebalancing of stock and bond asset allocations, leading to increased liquidity in the stock market [3][4] - The medium-term fundamental bull market is expected to be influenced by external economic conditions, particularly a potential "synchronized recovery" among China, the US, and Europe, which could favor large-cap growth stocks and globally priced resources [4][5] Group 2 - The long-term transition from old to new economic drivers suggests that traditional cyclical sectors may lead the market, as China focuses on boosting consumption, fiscal support, and monetary easing while managing real estate leverage [5][6] - The report indicates that the current market structure is shifting from a "new over old" phase to a "last song of the old," where cyclical sectors may outperform as the economy stabilizes and transitions occur [5][6] - The report highlights that the technology sector, particularly the ChiNext index and industry-driven tech stocks, is positioned to benefit from favorable valuations and superior earnings growth compared to broader indices [3][4][5]