来源：市场资讯 （来源：上海楼市情报） 今年国庆长假，上海楼市呈现显著的分化态势。 新房市场在外环外限购松绑等政策利好推动下，有所回暖。数据显示，今年双节长假期间，上海新房市 场日均成交面积较去年国庆假期小幅增长3%。 而二手房市场却遭遇寒流，日均网签成交套数则较去年假期下滑超五成，买卖双方博弈加剧。 01 部分项目直接推出价格优惠。青浦区朱家角"同悦湾璟庭"项目推出95折购房优惠；招商时代潮派项目推 出额外赠送2万元家电大礼包的优惠政策。 而与新房市场形成鲜明对比的是，上海二手房市场在国庆期间表现低迷。假期前7天，上海二手房累计 成交仅780套，日均成交111套，较2024年同期的2133套下跌超过63%。 02 市场分化加剧！未来上海楼市… 上海楼市当前最显著特征是分化加剧。这种分化不仅存在于新房与二手房之间，也体现在不同区域和不 同档次产品上。 从区域看，外环外区域成为市场热点。从产品类型看，高端豪宅和性价比高的首次改善产品都有不错表 现。 上海楼市：冰火两重天 据上海中原地产数据显示：长假期间（25.10.1-25.10.8）新建商品住宅成交面积1.73万平方米。 从区域表现看，外环外区域成为成交主力 ...

Key Points - The report highlights a focus on the macroeconomic environment, noting that the August CPI growth rate was lower than expected, while the PPI growth rate met expectations, indicating structural changes in consumer prices and the impact of policies on supply-demand dynamics [2][5][6] - The report discusses the recent trends in the A-share merger and acquisition market, indicating a decrease in overall activity but with a diverse range of participants and sectors involved [8] - The Shanghai real estate market is analyzed, revealing a high proportion of older properties, with 82% of existing residential communities being over 20 years old, which poses challenges for the market [9][10][11] Macroeconomic Analysis - August CPI remained flat month-on-month but decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a structural divergence in consumer prices [5][6] - The report notes that food prices have a significant downward impact on CPI, while non-food prices have shown a consistent increase, contributing to the overall CPI growth [6][7] Mergers and Acquisitions - The report states that there were 68 disclosed M&A events during the period, with a total transaction value of 519 billion RMB, reflecting a decline in both the number and value of major M&A activities [8] - Key sectors for M&A activity included real estate management, machinery, and semiconductor products, indicating a trend towards horizontal integration and strategic cooperation among private and local state-owned enterprises [8] Real Estate Market Insights - The report identifies that as of May 2025, Shanghai had 27,500 existing residential communities, with 64% of the 9.62 million existing homes being over 20 years old, highlighting the aging housing stock [9][10] - The analysis of the Shanghai housing market indicates a cyclical evolution, with significant price fluctuations and regulatory impacts over the past three decades, leading to a current phase of stabilization and structural differentiation [10][11] Future Development Plans - The report outlines the "CAZ" (Central Activity Zone) and "One River, One River" initiatives as key future development directions for Shanghai, aiming to enhance urban functionality and livability [12][13] - The CAZ is projected to cover 75 square kilometers, contributing 25% of the city's GDP, while the "One River" initiative focuses on ecological and cultural improvements along the Huangpu and Suzhou Rivers [12][13] Sales and Pricing Trends - New home sales in Shanghai showed a positive year-on-year growth of 5% in the first five months of 2025, reversing a downward trend from previous years, while second-hand home sales also experienced significant growth [14][15] - The report notes that the average price of new homes reached 92,119 RMB per square meter, while second-hand home prices faced downward pressure, indicating a divergence in market performance [17][19] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that the overall inventory in Shanghai has increased, with a total of 39.06 million square meters of new and second-hand home inventory, but the average de-stocking period remains healthy at 14.9 months [21][22] - New home inventory pressure is concentrated in the outer ring areas, while second-hand home inventory pressure is more pronounced in the inner ring, reflecting differing supply-demand dynamics [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market may still have potential for price increases, but the likelihood of significant surges similar to those seen before 2022 is low due to various market dynamics [1][3][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply structure in the land auction market shows that central areas have ample demand while suburban areas face reduced transactions, leading to a decrease in supply [1] - The luxury housing market in Shanghai is uncertain in its ability to maintain strong demand, especially with the influence of purchase restrictions [3] - The long-term outlook for real estate is affected by demographic trends, including declining birth rates and reduced employment opportunities, which limit the influx of new residents to Shanghai [3] Group 2: Pricing and Demand - New housing price increases are seen as artificial, with the second-hand market being more reflective of true market conditions [5] - The demand for "good houses" is shifting, leading to a decoupling of market prices from product value, where older properties may only succeed at lower prices [5] - The overall sentiment in the market suggests that buyers are primarily motivated by self-use rather than investment, which could limit future price increases [7] Group 3: Sales Data - Recent sales data indicates high subscription rates for several new developments, with some projects achieving over 200% subscription rates, reflecting strong interest in specific areas [4][5] - The average prices for new developments vary significantly, with some luxury properties priced above 170,000 per square meter, while others are below 80,000 [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is characterized by a potential "squeeze," where insufficient purchasing power could lead to a reassessment of market conditions, emphasizing the importance of buyer sentiment [7] - The overall market may face challenges in sustaining price increases due to the large volume of second-hand properties available, which could suppress upward price movements [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Shanghai showed a slight cooling compared to previous rounds, with a total of 4 plots sold for approximately 9.71 billion yuan, indicating a more cautious approach from developers [1][2][17]. Group 1: Auction Details - Four plots were auctioned in Shanghai on May 9, located in Hongkou, Yangpu, Songjiang, and Qingpu districts, with a starting total price of about 8.41 billion yuan [1][2]. - All four plots were successfully sold, generating a total revenue of 9.71 billion yuan [2]. - The Yangpu plot was acquired by Poly Real Estate with a premium rate of 26.3%, while the Songjiang plot was won by China Railway Construction with a premium rate of 20.4% [2][5][7]. Group 2: Developer Participation and Competition - The Yangpu plot attracted five developers, including China Overseas Land & Investment and Poly Real Estate, with intense competition leading to 72 rounds of bidding [8]. - The Songjiang plot also saw participation from multiple developers, ultimately secured by China Railway Construction [9]. - The plots in Hongkou and Qingpu had less competition, with the former being a commercial and cultural site and the latter located in a less desirable area [9]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - The premium rates for the recent land sales did not exceed 30%, indicating a more cautious stance from developers compared to previous auctions [2][17]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the Shanghai real estate market, citing the combination of central and suburban land supply as a positive factor for future stability [17].