Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - This week, Sino-US trade frictions have been fluctuating, with the SCFI continuing to rise. In the short term, Sino-US relations may ease, creating opportunities for high-level meetings between the two sides [2]. - Real estate sales are weak, and the "Silver October" is lackluster, partly due to the high base caused by the "924 New Policy" last year [2]. - The prices of rebar and cement continue to decline. Weak demand remains the key factor restricting the recovery of spot prices. In the futures market, coking coal and coke led the rise in domestic commodity futures on Friday night, and safety supervision has some impact on the supply side [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales - This week, real estate sales remained weak after the holiday. The new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind increased by 269.58% week-on-week but decreased by 21.66% year-on-year. New home sales in all tiers of cities were significantly stronger than the previous period but still weak compared to the same period last year, with first-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities showing a large decline in new home sales area compared to last year [3][8]. - Looking at key cities, new home sales increased significantly week-on-week, with notable increases in Shenzhen (567.67%) and Suzhou (419.10%). However, new home sales area in all cities was significantly lower than the same period last year [14]. - Second-hand home sales also increased significantly week-on-week, with the decline narrowing year-on-year. In key cities, second-hand home sales area increased significantly week-on-week, with significant increases in Beijing (582.88%) and Shenzhen (573.7%). However, second-hand home sales area in all key cities decreased compared to the same period last year [25]. 2. Investment - In terms of investment, most commodity prices declined this week. Rebar prices, glass futures prices, asphalt prices, and cement prices all decreased [34]. 3. Production - In terms of production, most operating rates increased this week. The PTA operating rate decreased, while the operating rate of automobile tires increased significantly, and the operating rates of petroleum asphalt, polyester filament, coking enterprises, and steel blast furnaces remained basically flat [44]. 4. Consumption - In terms of consumption, the momentum of travel was strong. Subway ridership, domestic flights, and automobile consumption were above seasonal levels, while movie box office was below seasonal levels [52]. 5. Exports - In terms of exports, the SCFI index increased significantly this week, the BDI index increased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly [59]. 6. Prices - In terms of prices, pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased, and oil prices decreased. Rebar prices also decreased [63].

Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing significant divergence, with new homes showing signs of recovery while the second-hand market faces a downturn [1][4]. New Home Market - During the National Day holiday, the average daily transaction area for new homes in Shanghai increased by 3% compared to last year, totaling 17,300 square meters [1]. - The outer ring areas are becoming the main transaction zones, with Yangpu District leading with nearly 4,000 square meters sold, followed by Pudong with around 3,000 square meters [1]. - Developers are actively promoting sales, with Poly Developments Shanghai attracting over 4,000 customer visits and achieving sales of 1.28 billion yuan during the holiday [2]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home market in Shanghai is struggling, with only 780 transactions during the holiday, averaging 111 per day, a decline of over 63% from 2,133 transactions in the same period last year [4]. - The market is characterized by increased negotiation between buyers and sellers, leading to a challenging environment for transactions [1]. Market Outlook - The current market shows increasing differentiation, not only between new and second-hand homes but also across different regions and product types [4]. - Analysts express cautious optimism for October, anticipating that favorable policies and seasonal sales may lead to improved transaction volumes for new homes compared to last year [4]. - There is an expectation for structural improvements in the second-hand market due to price reductions on some urgent sales, although significant increases in transaction volume are unlikely due to the new home market's influence [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple cities have introduced new real estate policies to stabilize the market ahead of the National Day holiday, signaling positive developments in the housing sector [1][2]. Policy Developments - From September 25 to October 1, cities such as Dongguan, Guangzhou, Shaoyang, Changchun, Ningxiang, Hefei, Wuhan, and Chongqing implemented new housing policies [2][3]. - Significant support for housing provident funds was noted, with Guangzhou optimizing its fund withdrawal policy for home purchases and renovations [3][4]. - Dongguan raised the maximum loan limit for first and second homes to 1.5 million yuan and increased support for down payments [3][4]. Market Performance - During the National Day holiday, the overall performance of the real estate market was relatively flat, but new home transaction areas in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw year-on-year growth [2][5]. - According to statistics, Beijing's new residential sales averaged 0.61 million square meters daily during the holiday, a 52% increase compared to last year [6]. - In contrast, cities like Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Chengdu experienced a decline in new home transactions during the same period [6][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the new supply from major developers in core cities will support new home sales in the fourth quarter, leading to a continued differentiated market performance [5][7]. - The overall transaction volume in the real estate market is anticipated to see a moderate recovery in October, although the trend of "trading volume for price" is likely to persist in the short term [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has reiterated the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, leading to a slight recovery in September, particularly in core cities, despite overall market activity remaining below last year's levels during the National Day holiday [1][11]. Market Performance - In September, new home sales in Beijing reached 460,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 21% and a year-on-year increase of 22%. During the National Day holiday, daily new home sales averaged 6,100 square meters, up 52% from last year [3]. - Shanghai's new home sales in September were 970,000 square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of 16%. Daily new home sales during the holiday averaged 6,200 square meters, a slight increase of 3% from last year [4]. - Shenzhen saw a daily new home sales average of 2,300 square meters during the holiday, a 22% increase compared to last year, following a 44% month-on-month increase in September [4]. - Guangzhou's new home sales in September were 5,258 units, with a month-on-month increase of 18% and a year-on-year increase of 10%. However, daily sales during the holiday averaged 8,100 square meters, a slight decrease of 4% from last year [4]. - In Hangzhou, 575 new units were launched during the holiday, with high demand for core area projects, although overall market activity was still below last year's levels [3][5]. Marketing Strategies - Developers in major cities have employed various promotional strategies, including discounts, special offers, and marketing events, to stimulate sales during the holiday period [2][3][5]. - In cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou, developers have focused on price reductions and promotional activities to enhance sales performance, particularly in core areas [2][3]. Land Market Trends - The residential land market has seen a decrease in transaction volume, with September's land sales down 3.3% year-on-year, and total land sales revenue down 8.8% [8]. - The average premium rate for land sales in September dropped to 3.8%, indicating a cautious approach from developers in acquiring new land [8]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue showing signs of differentiation, with core city projects maintaining higher demand while peripheral areas face challenges [11]. - The introduction of new quality projects in core cities is anticipated to support new home sales in the fourth quarter [11].

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market showed significant improvement during the National Day holiday, with a 15% increase in second-hand housing transactions and a 120% surge in new housing transactions compared to the previous week [1][2]. Market Performance - From October 1 to October 7, the transaction volume for second-hand homes increased by 49% compared to 2023 and 68% compared to 2022, indicating a recovery trend in the market [10]. - The new housing market saw a notable increase in transactions, with 2,824 new homes signed in the month following the "9·5 housing policy," representing a year-on-year growth of 23.48% [3][10]. Policy Impact - The "9·5 housing policy" has positively influenced the market, leading to a 49% increase in new home viewings and a 46% rise in new home transactions in the month following the policy's implementation [3]. - Developers have shown increased confidence, with 16 new projects obtaining pre-sale permits in September, compared to only 6 in August [3]. Developer Strategies - Developers are adopting new marketing strategies, such as launching properties in phases to create a sense of urgency and excitement in the market [6]. - Discounted pricing strategies are being employed, with some properties offering significant price reductions to accelerate sales [6][7]. Future Outlook - The overall transaction volume for the year remains positive, with a 22% increase in new residential transactions and a 17% increase in second-hand transactions from January to September [10]. - Analysts suggest that while the market has shown resilience, there may be pressure on transactions in the coming months due to high base effects from the previous year and a cautious buyer sentiment [10].