1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday Shanghai nickel had a certain correction. Currently, there is still support from the ore price. Attention should be paid to whether the nickel ore benchmark price and premium will decline due to the market. In the short - term, only the nickel ore supports the bottom space. The ferronickel price is still falling but is close to the low - valuation range, with limited further decline space. The bottom support of stainless steel has stabilized. There is news that Tsingshan will cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons, and spot - end transactions have improved. The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment due to the disturbance of the Congo cobalt mine, and the downstream acceptance has also increased. It still maintains a production - based - on - sales situation. Future focus is on the production - cut intensity and whether the inventory improves [3] - On the positive side, there is still support from the nickel ore price at the cost end, the cobalt mine ban in Congo continues, and Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons. On the negative side, stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand with slow inventory reduction, the contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepens with the oversupply situation remaining unchanged, and the pure nickel inventory is high [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Management Strategy - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a current volatility historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% using the Shanghai nickel main contract; also, sell call options with a selling ratio of 50% using over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2] - For procurement management, when the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the disk, with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan using far - month Shanghai nickel contracts; sell put options with a selling ratio based on the procurement plan using on - exchange/over - the - counter options; buy out - of - the - money call options with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan using on - exchange/over - the - counter options [2] 3.2 Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data - Nickel disk: The latest values of Shanghai nickel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 118,600 yuan/ton, 118,670 yuan/ton, 118,830 yuan/ton, and 118,960 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.88%, 0.81%, and 0.81%. The LME nickel 3M is at 14,905 US dollars/ton, up 0.75%. The trading volume is 76,394 lots, down 20.49%; the open interest is 36,302 lots, down 30.20%; the warrant number is 21,359 tons, down 1.03%; the basis of the main contract is - 790 yuan/ton, up 7.5% [6] - Stainless steel disk: The latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 are 12,540 yuan/ton, 12,540 yuan/ton, 12,470 yuan/ton, and 12,415 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.80%, 0.81%, and 0.85%. The trading volume is 175,419 lots, down 16.10%; the open interest is 159,994 lots, down 13.94%; the warrant number is 112,867 tons, down 0.32%; the basis of the main contract is 530 yuan/ton, down 8.62% [7] 3.3 Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 38,223 tons, down 1,160 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 204,360 tons, up 432 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 1,000.6 tons, up 1.8 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 34,610 tons, up 3,148 tons [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel prices are likely to be subject to the long - short game between reality and expectations, continuing to fluctuate in the short term. If the long - term mine - end logic weakens, there may be a trading logic of "de - valuation - de - production" pressure on refined nickel [1]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Negative feedback and inventory pressure will weigh on the short - term market, while the cost side limits the downward elasticity. Increased production cuts in June will ease the pressure in the long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Fundamental Analysis - **Mine end**: The short - term support logic of the nickel ore end remains unchanged. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore in June in some parks is determined, with the margin flat compared to May. The market's concern about the increase in Indonesian quotas has cooled, and the convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore [1]. - **Smelting end**: The global visible inventory accumulation is less than expected due to replenishment demand, but the overall inventory is high. There is still an expectation of more potential supply release in the medium term, and nickel prices may face "de - valuation - de - production" pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: The production schedule of stainless steel in China in June is 3.239 million tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 1%/5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to 4%. Two Indonesian stainless steel producers have marginally cut production, with the production schedule in June at 360,000 tons, a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 9%/0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to - 2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's stainless steel import supply is expected to drop to nearly - 28% in June, and the total supply (production + imports) growth rate may be adjusted down to about 2.2% [2]. - **Demand side**: The short - term off - season and the digestion pressure of the previous high production schedule limit the upside elasticity of steel prices. The demand growth rate is expected to be around 2% - 3%. If production cuts are implemented as scheduled from June to July, the long - term oversupply pressure may be alleviated to some extent [2]. - **Cost side**: The negative feedback of production cuts puts pressure on ferronickel, which gives up some profits, but the Indonesian ore end still provides short - term support for ferronickel, thus supporting the cost of stainless steel [2]. Inventory Changes - **Refined nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,789 tons to 38,000 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 726 tons to 200,106 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel**: The ferronickel inventory at the end of May was 31,462 tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month increase of 59%/6%, and the inventory pressure increased marginally [4]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel social inventory was 1,122,258 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 680,552 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.71% [4][5]. - **Nickel ore**: China's port nickel ore inventory decreased by 290,200 wet tons to 6.9686 million wet tons [5]. Market News - In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, entering the trial production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue production suspension and maintenance from June to July, which is expected to affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The nickel and stainless steel markets are expected to continue their volatile trends in the near term. The core contradictions include a slight intraday decline in Shanghai nickel, short - term support in Philippine nickel mines, a slight downward shift in the Indonesian domestic trade benchmark price, stable premiums in June, stable ferronickel prices, production cuts in some stainless - steel mills in China and Indonesia, and a downward trend in nickel salts in the new energy chain affected by nickel prices. Future focus is on spot trading and fundamental drivers [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Price Forecast**: The predicted price range is 11,700 - 12,600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Shanghai Nickel Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and there is a risk of inventory value decline, strategies include short - selling Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedge ratio, strategy level 2), selling call options (50% hedge ratio, strategy level 2), and buying far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs (strategy level 3) [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, strategies include selling put options and buying out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan (strategy levels 1 and 3 respectively) [2] Market Conditions and Influencing Factors - **Core Contradictions**: Intraday, Shanghai nickel had a slight correction. There was short - term support in Philippine nickel mines, a slight downward shift in the Indonesian domestic trade benchmark price, and stable premiums in June. Ferronickel prices were stable. Some stainless - steel mills in China and Indonesia announced production cuts, and the new energy chain's nickel salts declined due to nickel prices. Future focus is on spot trading and fundamental drivers [3] - **Positive Factors**: The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, some stainless - steel mills announced production cuts, and there is support from stable costs of nickel ore and ferronickel [4] - **Negative Factors**: Stainless - steel inventories remain at a high level, stainless - steel has entered the traditional off - season, and multiple stainless - steel trading countries have launched anti - dumping investigations [4] Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Nickel Main Contract is 122,590 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 is 122,590 yuan/ton (up 1.11%), Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 is 122,750 yuan/ton (up 1.05%), Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 is 122,900 yuan/ton (up 1.05%), and LME Nickel 3M is 15,475 US dollars/ton (down 1.04%). Trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.18%. The basis of the main contract increased by 86.2% [5] - **Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of Stainless - Steel Main Contract is 12,720 yuan/ton (unchanged), Stainless - Steel Continuous 1 is 12,720 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), Stainless - Steel Continuous 2 is 12,735 yuan/ton (up 0.63%), Stainless - Steel Continuous 3 is 12,740 yuan/ton (up 0.63%). Trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 4.09%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 12.16% [6] - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 41,553 tons (down 836 tons), LME nickel inventory is 201,624 tons (up 162 tons), stainless - steel social inventory is 967.5 tons (down 6.4 tons), and nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons (up 1,907.5 tons) [7]