Core Insights - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June unexpectedly remained flat, influenced by a stronger dollar, leading to a decline in gold prices [1] - Economists suggest that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and PPI data indicate a projected month-over-month increase of 0.27% in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is better than initial concerns during the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Trump [1] - Despite these indicators, there are concerns regarding the potential impact of increased tariffs set for August 1, as businesses may have depleted their pre-tariff inventories [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June remained unchanged, alleviating some hawkish pressure on the Federal Reserve from the previous day's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, leading to a volatile performance of the U.S. dollar [1] Group 1 - The unchanged PPI suggests that inflationary pressures may be stabilizing, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] - Analysts are expected to use both the PPI and CPI data to estimate the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, which will be released later this month [1] - There are only limited initial signs indicating that tariffs are exerting pressure on the prices of certain goods, suggesting that the PCE may show signs of weakness [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding inflation data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy for a longer period, potentially providing support for the U.S. dollar [1]

Core Insights - Gold is a global safe-haven asset, and its price fluctuations are closely related to U.S. inflation data. Understanding the linkage between inflation indicators and the gold market can help investors grasp market dynamics [1] Group 1: Key Inflation Indicators - The U.S. inflation monitoring system consists of three main indicators: 1. Consumer Price Index (CPI): Reflects changes in prices of consumer goods and services, directly impacting purchasing power. A sustained rise in CPI often indicates increased inflation pressure and heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3] 2. Producer Price Index (PPI): Monitors prices of raw materials and intermediate goods in the production sector, typically serving as a leading indicator for CPI. An increase in PPI usually gradually transmits to the consumer end, indirectly affecting gold market sentiment [3] 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE): Covers a broader range of consumer behavior data, making it an important reference for Federal Reserve policy-making due to its flexible statistical methods [3] Group 2: Inflation's Impact on Gold Prices - The influence of inflation data on the gold market operates through multiple mechanisms [5] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - During inflation data release periods, investors should pay attention to: 1. Real interest rate effect: When inflation growth exceeds nominal interest rates, real interest rates decline, reducing the cost of holding gold and supporting gold prices [7] 2. Expectation volatility effect: Market speculation prior to data release can lead to gold sell-offs if CPI exceeds expectations, while underperforming data may stimulate safe-haven buying [7] 3. Policy transmission effect: The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy based on inflation; persistent inflation may delay interest rate cuts, potentially putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but long-term stagflation risks still provide support [7] Group 4: Monitoring and Analysis - Investors should monitor the release schedule of CPI, PPI, and PCE data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce [8] - Historical data analysis and market reaction patterns should be examined for regularity [10] - Establishing a two-way trading mindset can help mitigate risks from data exceeding expectations [10] - Choosing trading platforms with robust risk control mechanisms is advisable [10]