Core Viewpoint - Trump's mixed signals regarding dollar policy highlight a tension between advocating for a strong dollar while acknowledging the benefits of a weaker dollar for U.S. manufacturing [1] Group 1: Dollar Policy - Trump emphasizes that he "will never support a weak dollar" while simultaneously discussing the economic advantages of a low exchange rate for U.S. manufacturing [1] - The comments come amid speculation in the foreign exchange market that the administration may be seeking a weaker dollar [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Impact - Trump notes that manufacturing companies are benefiting from a weaker dollar, suggesting that a strong dollar can deter tourism and sales of U.S. products [1] - He argues that while a strong dollar appears favorable, it can negatively impact sales and exports, stating, "you can't sell factories, trucks, or anything" [1] Group 3: Inflation Perspective - Trump claims that a strong dollar is beneficial for controlling inflation, but he asserts that inflation is not currently a concern, stating, "we have already eliminated inflation" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June remained unchanged, alleviating some hawkish pressure on the Federal Reserve from the previous day's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, leading to a volatile performance of the U.S. dollar [1] Group 1 - The unchanged PPI suggests that inflationary pressures may be stabilizing, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] - Analysts are expected to use both the PPI and CPI data to estimate the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, which will be released later this month [1] - There are only limited initial signs indicating that tariffs are exerting pressure on the prices of certain goods, suggesting that the PCE may show signs of weakness [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding inflation data may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy for a longer period, potentially providing support for the U.S. dollar [1]

Group 1 - The market has a strong consensus on the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, with uncertainty remaining around policy statements and tariff impacts, awaiting guidance from inflation data [1] - Several FOMC members have indicated a cautious stance, suggesting that short-term market volatility may not significantly affect the US dollar [1] - The longer the Federal Reserve resists rate cuts, the stronger the policy support for the dollar, with expectations for the first rate cut potentially being pushed to September, which may continue to bolster the dollar's resilience [1] Group 2 - The gold market shows a similar daily pattern to that before the Qingming Festival, characterized by a "three consecutive declines + doji stabilization + V-shaped rebound" structure, indicating bullish momentum [3] - Recent tariff negotiation news caused a sharp drop to 3360, compounded by Federal Reserve decisions, leading to increased daily volatility [3] - The daily closing suggests a higher probability of wide fluctuations, with initial rebound resistance at 3404 and support levels at 3365-3360, recommending a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rebounds [3][4] Group 3 - Suggested trading strategy includes buying on dips between 3360-3355 with a stop loss at 3347 and a target of 3380-3410 [4] - Another strategy recommends selling on rebounds between 3415-3420 with a stop loss at 3427 and a target of 3385-3360 [5]