1973年布雷顿森林体系崩溃时，没人能想到美元会在半个世纪后再度面临如此严峻的考验。2025年前六 个月ICE美元指数11%的断崖式下跌，不仅创下尼克松时代以来最差半年表现，更可能成为美元霸权衰 落的转折点。当华尔街分析师们翻遍历史数据都找不到更惨烈的下跌记录时，这个曾经不可一世的全球 储备货币，正遭遇着前所未有的信任危机。 特朗普团队的汇率操纵嫌疑为这场美元危机增添了政治注脚。日本韩国官员透露的谈判细节显示，白宫 正将汇率视为"非关税贸易壁垒"的核心工具，这种"明修栈道暗度陈仓"的策略比直接干预市场更为致 命。摩根士丹利报告中那个精妙的发现——标普500成分股40%营收来自海外，恰好解释了为何弱美元 政策能获得美国商业巨头的默许。这种政府与企业心照不宣的共谋，正在将美元推向"竞争性贬值"的危 险赛道。 历史总是惊人地相似，1973年美元与黄金脱钩时，世界花了十年才适应浮动汇率体系。而今天美元指数 11%的跌幅，或许正在重复当年"尼克松冲击"的剧本。当全球投资者开始质疑美元避险属性时，这个闭 环就开始崩塌——越是缺乏避险买盘支撑，美元就越脆弱；而越是剧烈波动，就越丧失避险资格。 RSM首席经济学家Joseph ...

以下文章来源于财联社 ，作者潇湘 财联社 . 财联社是上海报业集团主管主办，定位资本市场报道财经通讯社，以"准确、快速、权威、专业"为准 则，提供7x24小时金融信息服务。 来源|财联社 美元刚刚经历了自20世纪70年代初以来最糟糕的上半年表现。而不少业内人士表示，下半年美元的 前景可能也好不到哪里去…… 在2025年的前六个月，ICE美元指数累计下跌了近11%，这是自1973年尼克松时代以来该指数在 历年上半年的最大跌幅。 而1973年也正是布雷顿森林体系最终彻底崩溃的一年，西方国家在当时 放弃了固定汇率制，转而实行浮动汇率制。 对此， 杰富瑞集团全球外汇主管Brad Bechtel表示，"我认为美元的整体趋势仍将走低。" Bechtel和其他一些业内人士盘点了美元目前面临的三大利空。 01 外汇对冲需求 在2008年金融危机之后，美国股市飙升，轻松跑赢了大多数全球股指。这也推动了世界各地的投资 者将资金投入美国市场，并由此积累了巨大的美元风险敞口。 通常，这些以本国货币计算回报但投资于以其他货币计价资产的投资者，会使用远期等衍生品合约 来对冲货币风险。多年来，随着美国股市和美元持续攀升，持有美股和美债的外 ...

2025年上半年，美元创下自1970年代初以来最差开局。美元指数在前六个月暴跌近11%，这是自1973年 有记录以来最大的上半年跌幅。彼时布雷顿森林体系刚刚崩溃，全球货币进入自由浮动时代，而尼克松 正主政白宫。 过去十年间美元也曾经历疲软期，没有任何一次像过去半年这般惨烈。更令人担忧的是，风向正在转变 ——且对美元极为不利。如今华尔街鲜有机构预期美元将在未来一年走强，部分分析师甚至认为，这可 能是美元长期贬值的开端。 杰富瑞集团全球外汇主管布拉德·贝赫特尔（Brad Bechtel）直言："美元的整体趋势仍是向下。"三大原 因表明，其跌势还将进一步恶化。 "去美元化"对冲 2008年金融危机后，美股一路高歌猛进，轻松碾压多数国际市场。当全球资本疯狂涌入美国市场时，也 积累了巨额的美元风险敞口。通常情况下，投资者会通过远期合约等衍生品对冲外币资产风险，但在美 股与美元同步攀升的年代，这种操作长期被忽视。 如今情况正在逆转。国际股市的强劲表现，叠加特朗普贸易政策的不确定性，促使外资开始重新审视风 险。"持有美元资产的外国投资者将持续对冲美元风险，"贝赫特尔表示，"这将形成持续压力。" 不过从数据看，外资尚未大规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has dismissed concerns regarding the recent depreciation of the dollar affecting its status as a global reserve currency, asserting that the dollar's value is unrelated to a "strong dollar policy" [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index experienced its worst first half since 1973, with a decline of nearly 11% [1] - The depreciation is attributed to concerns over President Trump's policies, including potential economic impacts from tariff increases and a tough diplomatic stance towards long-time allies [1] Group 2: Economic Policies - The Treasury Secretary emphasized that the Republican tax legislation is creating conditions for economic growth and controlling inflation, positioning the U.S. as a prime destination for global capital investment [1] - There is skepticism regarding the potential for a shift away from dollar dependency in the global financial system, despite discussions about the euro's rising significance [1] Group 3: Euro and Dollar Dynamics - The depreciation of the dollar has led to an increase in the euro's value, with the current exchange rate at 1.175 [1] - Historical context indicates that when the euro strengthens, European Central Bank officials often express concerns about the negative impact on export competitiveness [1]

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is that the recent decline of the dollar does not threaten its status as the world's primary reserve currency, emphasizing that the "strong dollar policy" focuses on long-term stability rather than short-term fluctuations [1][4]. - Mnuchin highlighted that the dollar index fell nearly 11% in the first half of the year, marking the worst semi-annual performance since the Nixon era, attributing this decline to uncertainties stemming from President Trump's trade policies and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1][4]. - He reiterated that the Republican tax reform is laying the groundwork for economic growth and that measures are being taken to curb inflation, positioning the U.S. as a prime destination for global capital, which he believes will support the dollar's long-term status [4][7]. Group 2 - Mnuchin warned that if the euro rises to 1.20 against the dollar, it would cause significant concern among Europeans, as a strong euro could undermine the price competitiveness of European exports [4][7]. - He expressed skepticism towards predictions of the dollar's decline as a reserve currency since World War II, asserting that doubters will once again be proven wrong [4]. - The Secretary emphasized that U.S. policymakers recognize the responsibilities that come with being a reserve currency and can tolerate periods of a strong dollar, contrasting this with European perspectives [7].

贝森特否认美元下跌威胁其世界主要货币的地位 金十数据7月4日讯，美国财长贝森特驳斥了美元近期的贬值会影响其作为世界主要货币地位的说法。贝 森特周说："美元价格与强势美元政策无关。强势美元政策的关键是我们是否在长期内采取措施，确保 美元继续作为全球储备货币。"他认为，特朗普政府确实在采取这样的措施。美元指数上半年下跌了近 11%，创下了自1973年以来最糟糕的上半年表现。这一贬值发生在对特朗普政府政策的担忧背景下，尤 其是关税增加对经济增长的潜在冲击以及对长期盟友的强硬外交姿态，这些盟友过去一直向美国注入资 金。贝森特说，共和党的税收法案"为经济增长创造了条件"。 美元指数 ...

美国财长贝森特：美元走势与（特朗普政府的）强美元政策无关。 如果欧元兑美元达到1.2%，欧洲人将"惊声尖叫"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, emphasized that the exchange rate of the dollar does not equate to a strong dollar policy, indicating a nuanced approach to currency valuation and economic strategy [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a broader understanding that a strong dollar does not solely depend on its exchange rate against other currencies [1] - The U.S. government aims to maintain a stable and predictable dollar value to support economic growth and international trade [1] - Yellen's comments suggest that the administration is focused on long-term economic fundamentals rather than short-term currency fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar, highlighting its lowest performance since March 2022, and explores potential policy measures to address the overvaluation of the dollar while considering the implications for US assets and debt pressure [1]. Group 1: Currency Policy and Risks - The demand for reserve assets leads to a deviation from normal trade balance, primarily due to an overvalued exchange rate, which can be corrected through tariffs or addressing undervalued currencies of other countries [2]. - The pursuit of a fair value for the dollar may reduce its attractiveness to foreign investors, potentially leading to a significant decline in the value of US Treasury securities [2]. - A 15% decline in the value of US Treasury bonds could negate over one-third of expected interest payments, raising concerns about capital outflows amid existing fiscal deficits and inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Multilateral Currency Policy Agreements - Historical multilateral currency agreements, such as the Plaza Accord and Louvre Accord, have been effective in adjusting the value of the dollar, but current economic conditions differ significantly from those in the 1980s [5][7]. - The US government aims to use tariffs as leverage to negotiate currency agreements with trading partners like Europe and China, but these countries are unlikely to agree to currency adjustments due to their own economic challenges [7][9]. - The current distribution of reserve assets is concentrated in Middle Eastern and East Asian countries, complicating the implementation of multilateral agreements compared to the past [9]. Group 3: Unilateral Currency Policy Approaches - The article suggests that the Trump administration could explore unilateral measures to address the overvaluation of the dollar without relying solely on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [11]. - The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could be utilized to impose fees on foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities, making reserve accumulation less attractive [12]. - Gradual implementation of such policies is recommended to mitigate potential adverse effects on the dollar and financial markets [12][14]. Group 4: Accumulation of Foreign Currency Reserves - The US could mimic some trading partners by accumulating foreign currency reserves through purchasing dollars and selling them for other currencies, thereby increasing demand for those currencies [16]. - Utilizing the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) and the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA) are potential methods for accumulating foreign reserves, though they come with risks and require careful management [17][18]. - The article emphasizes the need for cooperation between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to effectively implement these strategies while maintaining the Fed's credibility in managing inflation [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar may not align with Trump's true intentions, as it could lead to a crisis of confidence in the dollar and undermine the US economy [1][14]. Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of the year, reaching its lowest point since March 2022 [1]. - In 2016, following Trump's election, the dollar index initially rose but later experienced a significant decline in 2017 due to various factors, including stalled reforms and a recovering European economy [2][3]. - The dollar index's composition includes major currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound, with the euro contributing the most to the dollar's decline in 2017 [3]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Trump's economic policies, including tariffs and immigration reforms, have led to market turmoil, reversing initial positive sentiment into recession expectations [6][7]. - The first quarter of this year saw a "double hit" in the US stock and currency markets, while the second quarter faced a "triple hit" due to concerns over Trump's new policies and their impact on the dollar's credibility [6][8]. - Despite the dollar's decline, US exports increased by 5.7% in the first four months of the year, while imports surged by 20.2%, leading to a widening trade deficit [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Implications - The current dollar weakness may be just the beginning, as structural and cyclical factors contribute to a potential long-term decline in the dollar's value [11][14]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate policies could lead to renewed rate cuts if economic conditions worsen, further accelerating the dollar's decline [14]. - The ongoing trade tensions and Trump's unpredictable economic policies may erode the dollar's international credibility, complicating the outlook for US trade balances and inflation [13][14].