文章原载于"李迅雷金融与投资"微信公众号：lixunlei0722 核心观点 过去几年人民币贬值和出口价格低迷，拖累中国出口金额占全球的份额提升。众所周知最近几年出口是拉动中国经济增长的重要动能，但中国出口金额占 全球比例，在2021年触及14.9%的历史高点后，2022年到2025年持续比这个比例低。通过对中国出口份额的拆分，我们发现这种直觉和数据之间的分化， 源于出口价格和汇率这两个因素的拖累。剔除掉价格和汇率的拖累后，中国出口数量占全球份额持续提高，其同比也是持续高增的，在现行核算框架下成 为拉动中国GDP的重要引擎。 定性视角看中国出口金额份额趋势。从中国出口数量份额、人民币口径出口价格指数和人民币兑美元汇率这三个维度，判断中国出口金额占全球份额的趋 势。 出口数量份额方面，分析日本和德国出口份额见顶后持续回落的原因，判断短期内中国出口还会有很强竞争力，这意味着出口订单份额还会进一步提高。 人民币口径出口价格方面，潜在的贸易摩擦风险会限制部分中国出口产品降价，优化出口退税政策会提高出口产品价格，内外销联动限制出口价格进一步 大幅下跌，加之低基数，我们预计中国出口价格同比跌幅将收窄，甚至会阶段性转正。 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for China's export share to increase, highlighting that despite recent challenges, there is room for growth in the global market [3][5] - It emphasizes that the decline in China's export share from its peak in 2021 is primarily due to factors such as export prices and exchange rates, rather than a decrease in competitiveness [3][4] Summary by Sections Export Share Trends - China's export share of global amounts reached a historical high of 14.9% in 2021 but has been below this level from 2022 to 2025 [3] - The analysis indicates that the decline in export share is not reflective of a loss in competitiveness, as the quantity of exports continues to rise [3][4] Factors Influencing Export Prices - Potential trade friction risks may limit the ability to lower prices for certain Chinese export products, while optimized export tax rebate policies could enhance export prices [4] - The report anticipates that the year-on-year decline in China's export prices will narrow, with a possibility of turning positive in certain phases due to a low base effect [4] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since 2022, there has been a divergence between China's trade surplus and the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB [4] - Increased use of RMB in international trade financing and payments is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, potentially leading to RMB appreciation [4] Quantitative Assessment of Export Share - A quantitative assessment suggests that China's export share of global amounts is expected to begin a continuous recovery in 2026, stabilizing around 17% by 2030 [5] - This assessment indicates that there is still over a 2 percentage point potential increase in China's export share compared to current levels, suggesting resilience in future export growth [5]

Export Trends - China's export amount as a share of global exports peaked at 14.9% in 2021 but has been below this level from 2022 to 2025[5] - The share of China's export quantity in global exports is expected to increase from 13.2% in 2019 to 17.0% by the third quarter of 2025[12] - The decline in China's export amount share is attributed to low export prices and currency depreciation, with a cumulative price drop of 10.1% from 2023 to 2025[15] Factors Supporting Export Growth - China's export quantity share is projected to continue rising due to accelerated industrial upgrading and a shift towards high-value-added products[12] - The "Belt and Road" initiative has diversified China's export markets, increasing shares in emerging economies like ASEAN and Africa[17] - Trade friction risks are expected to limit further price declines, with potential for stabilization or slight increases in export prices due to policy adjustments[39] Currency and Economic Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate gradually, supported by a resilient export sector and a target for GDP growth of 4.5%-5.0% in 2026[61] - The yuan's effective exchange rate has declined by 16.12% since March 2022, but a recovery is anticipated as trade surpluses continue[56] - By 2025, the yuan is projected to appreciate by 4.4% against the dollar, with increased usage in international trade financing and payments[70]