Macro Research - The report identifies three historical "great migrations" of Chinese household wealth, with the current one termed as "Deposit+" era starting from 2023, indicating a shift in asset allocation from traditional deposits to more diversified financial products [1][2][3] - The first migration occurred from 1998 to 2018, driven by the housing reform that led to significant capital flow into real estate [1][2] - The second migration from 2018 to 2023 saw a reversal as real estate entered a downturn, prompting a return to deposits due to declining risk appetite among residents [2][3] Food and Beverage Research - The report highlights the company WestJet as a global leader in private aviation, benefiting from strong order backlogs and capacity expansion, with expectations for sales growth driven by both volume and price increases [4] Non-Banking Financial Research - The investment banking and brokerage sectors are increasingly focusing on international business as a key growth driver, with significant contributions to profits from international subsidiaries of major Chinese brokerages [9][10] - The report emphasizes the necessity for Chinese brokerages to enhance their capital allocation capabilities and pricing power in international markets to support the country's financial ambitions [10][13] - Wealth management and investment banking services are identified as areas with growing demand, particularly as Chinese residents seek global asset allocation opportunities [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese residents' wealth has undergone two historical migrations, with the third migration currently underway, characterized by a shift towards "savings+" as the main trend, influenced by low interest rates and inflation expectations [2][6]. Group 1: First Historical Migration: "Savings Move" (1998–2018) - The period from 1990 to 1998 marked the initial stage of wealth accumulation and allocation, primarily through savings, with low exposure to risk assets [3][8]. - The housing reform in 1998 initiated the first migration, directing savings towards real estate and related assets, establishing real estate as a core component of residents' asset allocation [10][11]. - This migration can be divided into two phases: 1. From 1998 to 2008, real estate gained central importance in residents' balance sheets, driven by price appreciation expectations and the rise of related financial products [11][12]. 2. From 2008 to 2018, the rapid expansion of the asset management industry accelerated the flow of funds into real estate and related financial assets [3][12]. Group 2: Second Historical Migration: "Savings Return Home" (2018–2023) - The second migration began in 2018 as the real estate market entered a downturn, leading to a return of wealth from real estate and related financial products back to savings [4][17]. - During this period, annual new savings averaged approximately 12 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous norm of 4-5 trillion yuan [17]. - The decline in real estate prices and regulatory changes in the asset management sector contributed to the increased attractiveness of savings over real estate investments [18][17]. Group 3: Third Historical Migration: "Savings+" Era (Since 2023) - Since 2023, the growth of new savings has noticeably declined, with new savings dropping to 16.7 trillion yuan, indicating a loosening of the concentration in savings allocation [23][27]. - The driving factors include a relative decline in the attractiveness of savings rates and improvements in the relative returns of other risk assets, such as bonds and equities [26][27]. - The current migration reflects a structural rebalancing around actual returns, with "savings+" representing a broader wealth allocation concept that emphasizes stable returns while controlling for capital loss [27][28].

Group 1: Historical Wealth Migrations - The first historical migration occurred from 1998 to 2018, where deposits moved to real estate due to housing market reforms and rising property prices[3][14]. - The second migration from 2018 to 2023 saw wealth returning to deposits as the real estate market declined, with average annual new deposits reaching approximately 12 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous 4-5 trillion yuan[4][21]. - The third migration, starting in 2023, is characterized by a shift towards "deposits+" as low interest rates and inflation expectations reshape asset allocation strategies[5][28]. Group 2: Current Trends and Influencing Factors - Since 2023, new deposits have decreased to 16.7 trillion yuan, indicating a loosening of concentrated deposit allocations[28]. - The relative attractiveness of deposit yields has declined due to multiple rounds of interest rate cuts, prompting a shift towards "deposit-like" financial products[28][29]. - The recovery in bond and equity markets since 2024 has improved the relative returns of risk assets, making them more appealing compared to deposits[29][32]. Group 3: Implications of Inflation Expectations - Inflation expectations are a key variable influencing the direction and intensity of the current wealth migration, with low inflation leading to a preference for capital preservation products[11][32]. - The concept of "deposits+" emphasizes a wealth allocation philosophy that prioritizes stable returns while controlling for capital drawdown risks[33]. - If inflation expectations rise significantly, the flow of resident wealth may shift again, necessitating close monitoring of economic indicators[33].