新华社北京1月3日电 特稿｜2026，世界经济五问 新华社记者欧阳为 俞懋峰 陈斯达 进入2026年，世界经济巨轮驶向一片新的海域。地缘冲突的阴云、单边主义保护主义造成的壁垒、 宏观经济政策的分化、新技术革命的冲击，共同编织出一幅复杂图景。全球大变局、大调整之下，世界 经济能否最终穿越不确定性的迷雾？全球增长面临哪些挑战与机遇？ 一问：世界经济增长前景如何 国际货币基金组织（IMF）、经合组织等主要国际经济机构和组织普遍预测，2026年世界经济增速 将有所放缓，持续的不确定性、部分国家更多的保护主义措施和劳动力供应失衡可能拖累增长，一些国 家的财政脆弱性、潜在金融市场风险等也可能威胁市场稳定。 也有观点认为，2026年全球经济有望继续保持稳定。野村全球宏观研究团队日前发布报告认为，在 人工智能驱动的投资热潮以及更具扩张性的货币与财政政策支持下，2026年全球经济将显现稳定乃至增 长加速的迹象，但各地区增长仍将出现不均衡格局。 作为全球最大经济体，美国经济前景预期不佳。在摩根大通公司和桥水投资公司任职的经济学家丽 贝卡·帕特森认为，美国经济中越来越多的结构性支柱正显现出不稳定迹象，积聚了不少风险。 在亚洲，绿色 ...

在全球经济复苏乏力、不确定性持续上升的背景下，跨国企业对中国市场的信心依然稳固。 毕马威最新发布的《2025年跨国企业中国展望》中文版报告显示，无论是从短期还是中期来看，在 华跨国企业对未来前景普遍乐观，对中国经济的信心大于对全球经济的信心。 报告称，一半的受访跨国企业对2025年中国经济增长保持中等以上的信心。为应对经济增长放缓问 题，中国政府已经采取积极行动，包括先后于2024年秋季和2025年两会之后推出一系列刺激措施。39% 的受访者表示他们在相关措施推出后观察到了一定的复苏迹象。 受访企业对中国经济复苏的速度看法不一，不过无论是从短期还是中期来看，跨国企业对中国经济 的信心都大于对全球经济的信心。 不同行业的跨国企业对增长前景的信心也有所差异。消费和零售行业的跨国企业对2025年中国经济 增长的预期最为审慎。然而，他们对未来三到五年的增长前景较为乐观，而汽车行业的跨国企业对此则 最不乐观，主因是其认为短期将非常可能面临增长挑战。尽管如此，他们仍会继续在中国投资，这表明 他们对从中国市场获得大量回报抱持着一定的信心。 业务发展方面，尽管面临短期经济压力，跨国企业仍通过精简运营、本地化和数字化投资来确保 ...

央视网消息：近期，多家国内外机构发布2026年度策略报告，各家金融机构报告显示，明年中国经 济将延续稳健增长态势。 ...

与会外资零售企业表示，高度重视中国市场发展潜力，坚信中国经济的光明前景，愿在华长期发展、扩 大投资、加强创新，通过为中国消费者提供优质商品和良好服务实现自身持续发展。 据商务部12日消息，在第八届中国国际进口博览会期间，商务部副部长盛秋平在上海组织召开外资零售 企业座谈会，部分外资零售企业代表参加座谈交流。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 盛秋平表示，当前中国零售业规模巨大、趋势向好、充满活力，行业发展处于快速变革期。希望外资零 售企业坚定在华长期发展的信心，当好沟通交流的桥梁，共享中国发展机遇和发展成果。 ...

来源： 统计微讯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key points from the press conference of the 14th National People's Congress, highlighting the importance of the Private Economy Promotion Law and the mutual benefits of China-US economic relations [1][3][5]. Legislative Developments - The draft of the Private Economy Promotion Law was first reviewed by the National People's Congress (NPC) Standing Committee in December last year and has undergone further review recently. This law aims to ensure equal legal protection for various ownership economies and promote fair market competition [3]. - Since the second session of the 14th NPC, the NPC Standing Committee has reviewed 39 legal proposals, passing 24 of them, which includes the formulation of 6 new laws and amendments to 14 existing laws [8]. China-US Economic Relations - The essence of China-US economic relations is mutual benefit, with trade volume increasing over 200 times since the establishment of diplomatic relations. The total bilateral investment stock is approximately $250 billion [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for dialogue and negotiation to resolve differences, while firmly maintaining national sovereignty and development interests [6]. Technological Innovation - The progress of DeepSeek represents the rise of Chinese companies in the AI sector, showcasing China's innovation and inclusivity in technology development. The Chinese government is committed to protecting data privacy and promoting global AI governance [10]. Economic Outlook - Despite facing challenges, the fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain strong, with a resilient foundation and significant potential for long-term growth. The government is actively managing local government debt to ensure sustainable economic development [12][13].

Core Points - The 14th National People's Congress (NPC) Third Session will be held from March 5 to March 11, 2024, with a total of 7 agenda items, including the review of the government work report and the draft amendment to the Law on the National People's Congress and Local People's Congress Representatives [3][4]. Legislative Progress - Since the 14th NPC Second Session, the NPC Standing Committee has played a leading role in legislative work, reviewing 39 legal proposals and passing 24, including 6 new laws and 14 amendments [8]. Economic Outlook - Despite facing challenges, the foundation of the Chinese economy remains stable, with strong advantages and potential. The long-term positive trend and supporting conditions for the economy have not changed, instilling confidence in its future [17]. Private Economy Promotion - The draft Private Economy Promotion Law has been reviewed, emphasizing the importance of "two unwavering" principles and promoting a legal framework for the development of the private economy, ensuring equal participation in market competition [11]. International Relations - The essence of China-U.S. economic and trade relations is mutual benefit, with trade volume increasing over 200 times since the establishment of diplomatic relations. The call for equal negotiations to resolve issues is emphasized [13]. Defense Budget - China's defense budget has maintained a single-digit growth for nine consecutive years, with the defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP remaining below 1.5%, which is lower than the global average [26]. Global South Cooperation - China has consistently aligned with the Global South, contributing significantly to global economic growth, and positions itself as a participant and leader in South-South cooperation [30].