Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy and enhancing fiscal sustainability, marking a shift from the previous plan's focus on establishing a modern fiscal and tax system [1] Group 1: Central-Local Fiscal Relations - The plan suggests strengthening central authority and increasing the central government's fiscal expenditure ratio while enhancing local fiscal autonomy, especially as reliance on land finance decreases [2][3] - Central government transfer payments to local governments have exceeded 10 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, indicating a commitment to increasing local fiscal capacity [2] - The central fiscal expenditure ratio is currently below 15%, which is lower than that of major countries, highlighting the need for reform to better align responsibilities and resources between central and local governments [3] Group 2: Debt Management - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for government debt management is crucial, with a focus on addressing existing hidden debts and preventing new ones [4] - Transparency in local government debt information is essential, and debt management should consider sustainability and market conditions to minimize financing costs [4] - The government aims to optimize debt structure and scale, ensuring that debt management aligns with high-quality development goals [4] Group 3: Tax System Reform - The plan calls for deepening tax system reforms to ensure that tax obligations align with the capacity of microeconomic entities, addressing discrepancies in tax burdens [6][7] - The macro tax burden has been decreasing since 2017, with projections indicating that tax revenue will account for less than 13% of GDP by 2024, which may not be sustainable given the fiscal pressures [6] - Tax incentives should be rationalized to avoid market distortions and ensure fair competition, while direct tax systems need to be improved to promote social equity [7] Group 4: Zero-Based Budgeting Reform - The introduction of zero-based budgeting is seen as a critical reform to break the rigid expenditure patterns and improve the efficiency of fiscal resources [8][9] - Challenges in zero-based budgeting include reconciling legal spending requirements with the need for more efficient budget allocations [8][9] - Successful implementation of zero-based budgeting has been observed in various regions, enhancing fiscal management and resource allocation [9] Group 5: Proactive Fiscal Policy - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand effective demand, support technological self-reliance, and promote rural modernization and high-quality employment [11] - The policy will also address demographic changes and focus on risk prevention in key areas to create a conducive environment for fiscal policy implementation [11] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a foundational period for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, necessitating strategic actions to overcome challenges and leverage opportunities [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies to enhance fiscal sustainability during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, contrasting with the previous "14th Five-Year Plan" which focused on establishing a modern fiscal and tax system [2][19] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests strengthening central authority and increasing the proportion of central fiscal expenditure while enhancing local financial autonomy, especially in the context of declining reliance on land finance [3][4] - The central government's transfer payment budget has exceeded 10 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, indicating a significant effort to increase local financial autonomy [4][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the need for a long-term mechanism for government debt management that aligns with high-quality development, highlighting the establishment of a debt management department by the Ministry of Finance [6][7] - Transparency in local government debt information is crucial for effective debt management, and there is a need to enhance the proactive management of local government debt [7] - The article points out that the macro tax burden should be reasonable and aligned with fiscal expenditure, as the tax revenue to GDP ratio has been declining since 2017, which is not conducive to high-quality development [8][13] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to deepen tax system reforms to ensure that tax obligations correspond with the tax capacity of micro entities, addressing discrepancies in tax burdens [8][13] - Zero-based budgeting reform is highlighted as a significant initiative to break the rigid expenditure patterns and improve the efficiency of fiscal resources [14][15] - The article notes that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for laying the foundation for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, requiring strategic actions to overcome challenges and enhance economic resilience [17][19]

随着我国经济的持续发展，政府债务作为宏观经济运行中的关键变量，其规模、结构、功能及可持续性日益受到各界关注。近年 来，面对复杂的内外部经济环境，政府债务在调节经济运行、保障民生福祉、支持重点领域发展等方面发挥重要作用的同时，也面 临着种类和期限、持有者结构、可持续性等方面的一系列新情况与新挑战。 政府债券的种类和期限结构安排 当前，政府债券的种类和期限结构安排亟待深入探讨。从种类来看，主要分为赤字债务和自偿性债务。从期限来看，我国国债以中 期为主，短期相对偏少。从功能来看，国债是金融市场流动性的来源，也是非金融部门财富的重要组成部分。美国在这方面起步较 早，其美元最初由黄金背书，之后依托美国国债市场，再经过石油赋能，如今涉足稳定币领域。相比之下，在我国国债市场，国债 作为流动性来源的功能发挥还不够充分，但近年来正在加速深化改革与发展。 我国国债在非金融部门尤其是居民部门财富构成中的作用还有待挖掘。长期以来，我国国债面向个人投资者发行的规模相对较小。 通过对比中国居民与美国居民收入构成可以发现，我国居民的总收入低于美国居民，但工资性收入水平与美国相近，二者的差距主 要体现在财产性收入和转移支付方面。在美国居民的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In October, the approval of urban investment bonds showed characteristics of a slight decline in registration quota, a marginal acceleration in the approval rhythm, and a slight decline in the scale of terminated projects, with the overall financing rhythm slowing down. The supply - structure differentiation and the gap between strong and weak urban investment bonds further widened. The approval rhythm showed marginal relaxation, but the approval for urban investment platforms with different qualifications remained significantly differentiated. The establishment of the Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance in 2025 indicates stricter debt supervision, and it is recommended to continue to monitor the implementation of policy tools and relevant regulatory dynamics of the Debt Management Department [6][53]. Summary by Catalog 1. Registration Status: Slight Decline in Urban Investment Registration Quota - Overall registration: In October, the registration quota of urban investment platforms decreased slightly. The registration scale of the exchange decreased significantly, from 2338 billion yuan to 1868 billion yuan, while that of DCM increased slightly, from 1886 billion yuan to 2065 billion yuan [12]. - By administrative level: The registration scales of provincial and municipal urban investment platforms decreased. The proposed issuance scale of provincial urban investment registration projects dropped from 945 billion yuan to 631 billion yuan, and that of prefecture - level cities dropped from 1588 billion yuan to 1302 billion yuan. The proposed issuance scale of district - level urban investment registration projects increased from 1691 billion yuan to 2000 billion yuan, and its three - month moving average proportion rose to 42% [15]. - By district and county qualifications: The registration scale of districts and counties with weak qualifications decreased significantly. The registration scale of district - level platform bonds with a budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan dropped from 675 billion yuan to 408 billion yuan, and the three - month moving average proportion decreased to 39.2% [18]. - By province: The scales in regions such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Sichuan decreased significantly month - on - month. The scales in Sichuan, Anhui, and Shaanxi continued to decline. The scale growth in Jiangsu was mainly at the district - level, while that in Tianjin increased significantly month - on - month [20]. 2. Approval Feedback: Marginal Acceleration in Urban Investment Bond Approval - By issuance venue: In October, the DCM and exchange approval rhythms for urban investment bonds both accelerated. The number of effective sample bonds registered in DCM was 300, a significant decrease from the previous month, and that in the exchange was 81, also a significant decrease. The average number of feedbacks in DCM increased from 2.4 to 2.5 times, and the feedback time decreased from 41.5 days to 40.6 days. The average number of feedbacks in the exchange decreased from 4.1 to 3.7 times, and the feedback time decreased from 80.6 days to 70 days [28]. - By issuance method and level: The feedback times of public and private urban investment corporate bonds in prefecture - level cities and district - level cities decreased to varying degrees [33]. - By province: The approval rhythms in Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Fujian and other places accelerated significantly. The approval speeds in Zhejiang, Anhui, and Shanxi continued to improve, while the approval feedback days in Sichuan, Hubei, Guangdong and other places were significantly extended [37]. - By district and county qualifications: The approval rhythm of platform bonds in districts and counties with weak qualifications slowed down. The feedback days of district - level platforms with a general budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan increased from 70.3 days to 72.6 days, lower than the average of last year. The approval rhythms of district - level platforms with a general budget revenue of 5 - 8 billion yuan and 10 - 30 billion yuan accelerated significantly [39]. 3. Terminated Issuance: Slight Decline in the Scale of Terminated Projects - Overall situation: In October, the scale of terminated projects decreased slightly. The proposed issuance scale of terminated urban investment bonds decreased from 13 billion yuan to 12.5 billion yuan, and the number of terminated projects decreased from 9 to 6. The terminated scale of district - level urban investment bonds decreased significantly, and its three - month moving average proportion decreased to 46%. The scale of terminated projects at the municipal level increased significantly, and there were no terminated projects at the provincial level. The three - month moving average proportion of the number of terminated projects in districts and counties with weak qualifications (local budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan) continued to decline to 30.6% [42]. - By province: Terminated projects of urban investment platforms mainly occurred in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei. The scale of terminated projects in Shandong was mainly at the district - level platform, while those in Henan and Hebei were mainly affected by prefecture - level platforms [50].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance aims to centralize and enhance the management of government debt, addressing the previous fragmented approach and focusing on risk prevention and management of hidden debts [1][2][3] Debt Management Structure - The new Debt Management Department consists of six divisions, consolidating various functions previously scattered across different departments, thus improving efficiency in public debt management [1][2] - The main responsibilities of the Debt Management Department include comprehensive monitoring and management of both visible and hidden debts, ensuring effective debt replacement and risk mitigation [3][4] Current Debt Landscape - As of the end of 2024, the total government debt in China is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan, comprising 34.6 trillion yuan in national debt, 47.5 trillion yuan in local government legal debt, and approximately 10.5 trillion yuan in hidden debts [2] - The hidden debt issue is significant, with estimates suggesting that the actual interest-bearing debt of local government financing platforms exceeds 60 trillion yuan, leading to annual interest costs of over 3 trillion yuan [3][4] Debt Replacement and Risk Mitigation - The ongoing debt replacement initiative, amounting to 10 trillion yuan, is expected to enhance the monitoring and effectiveness of debt management, reducing the risk of increasing hidden debts [3][4] - Recent data indicates a significant reduction in the number of financing platforms and their outstanding financial debt, with decreases of 71% and 62% respectively from March 2023 to September 2025 [4] Market Response and Financing Costs - The issuance rates for local government bonds have shown a downward trend, with the average rate dropping from 3.59% in early October 2024 to a low of 2.21% in July 2025, reflecting a favorable financing environment [6][7] - Loan interest rates for local financing platforms have also decreased significantly, with some banks reporting reductions of nearly 60 basis points compared to the beginning of the year [6][7] Transformation of Financing Platforms - The successful transformation of financing platforms hinges on their ability to achieve independent debt repayment capabilities and to transition from reliance on government subsidies to market-driven revenue streams [8][11] - Regions with strong economic foundations are leading the market-oriented transformation, while smaller provinces are receiving more favorable debt replacement quotas to alleviate their debt pressures [10][11] Regulatory and Strategic Focus - Future regulatory efforts will likely emphasize guiding financing platforms towards sustainable and diversified growth, with a focus on investments that generate stable cash flows and align with national strategic goals [11]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance aims to unify government debt management and enhance monitoring to mitigate hidden debt risks, marking a significant shift from the previous fragmented approach [1][2][3]. Group 1: Debt Management Structure - The new Debt Management Department consists of six divisions, consolidating various functions previously scattered across different departments, thereby improving management efficiency [2][3]. - The department's responsibilities include comprehensive monitoring and management of public sector debt, which encompasses national bonds, local government bonds, and hidden debts [2][3]. Group 2: Hidden Debt Management - The Ministry of Finance has implemented strict regulations against the addition of new hidden debts, emphasizing the need for collaboration between central and local governments to ensure effective debt replacement [1][4]. - The current estimated scale of hidden debts related to urban investment platforms exceeds 60 trillion yuan, with annual interest costs projected to surpass 3 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Debt Replacement and Financial Stability - The ongoing debt replacement initiative, amounting to 10 trillion yuan, is expected to enhance the effectiveness of debt management and reduce the risk of increasing hidden debts [3][5]. - As of September 2025, the number of financing platforms and the scale of operating financial debts have significantly decreased, indicating a reduction in financial risks [5]. Group 4: Financing Costs and Market Trends - The issuance rates of urban investment bonds have shown a downward trend, with the average coupon rate dropping from 3.59% in early October 2024 to 2.21% in July 2025, reflecting a favorable financing environment [7]. - Loan interest rates for urban investment platforms have also decreased, with some banks reporting reductions of nearly 60 basis points compared to the beginning of the year [8]. Group 5: Market Transformation and Future Outlook - The successful transformation of urban investment platforms hinges on their ability to achieve independent debt repayment capabilities and move away from reliance on government subsidies and land finance [11][12]. - Regions with strong economic foundations are leading the market-oriented transformation, while smaller provinces are receiving a larger share of debt replacement quotas to alleviate financial pressures [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Debt Management Department" by the Ministry of Finance signifies a dedicated approach to managing government debt, addressing the increasing scale of debt and the associated risks in China [1][2]. Group 1: Government Debt Management - The new department will unify the management of various government debt instruments, including national bonds, special bonds, and local government bonds, enhancing policy coordination and effectiveness [1][2]. - As of the end of 2024, the total legal government debt in China is projected to reach 82.1 trillion yuan, with local government hidden debt at 10.5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant scale of government liabilities [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Mechanisms - Despite the implementation of measures to alleviate local government debt pressure, issues such as the emergence of new hidden debts and the use of financing platforms for borrowing persist, necessitating a comprehensive debt management approach [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to establish a long-term mechanism for government debt management that aligns with high-quality development, focusing on reducing hidden debts and reforming local government financing platforms [2].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance signifies a dedicated approach to managing government debt, addressing the increasing scale of debt and the associated risks in China [1][2] Group 1: Government Debt Management - The new Debt Management Department will unify the management of various government debt instruments, including national bonds, special bonds, and local government bonds, enhancing policy coordination [1] - As of the end of 2024, China's total government debt is projected to reach 82.1 trillion yuan, with local government hidden debt at 10.5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant scale of government liabilities [1] - The establishment of a specialized agency reflects the need for improved oversight and management of government debt, particularly in light of rising debt levels and the challenges posed by insufficient effective demand in the economy [2] Group 2: Debt Management Mechanism - The current debt management mechanism is not fully developed, leading to the emergence of new hidden debts and false debt reduction practices in some localities [2] - The Ministry of Finance aims to create a long-term mechanism for government debt management that aligns with high-quality development, focusing on reducing hidden local government debt and reforming financing platforms [2] - The Debt Management Department will operate with lower costs, greater transparency, and a more stable rhythm to enhance the government debt mechanism [2]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the management and oversight of China's substantial government debt, which totals 92.6 trillion yuan, by consolidating various debt management functions into a dedicated entity [3][12]. Group 1: Establishment and Purpose - The Debt Management Department has been newly established to address the complexities of managing a large government debt portfolio, which includes 34.6 trillion yuan in national bonds and 47.5 trillion yuan in local government legal debts [3][4]. - This new department is designed to streamline debt management processes and improve the monitoring and prevention of debt risks, thereby optimizing the debt structure [3][12]. Group 2: Structure and Responsibilities - The Debt Management Department consists of six divisions: Comprehensive Division, Central Debt Division, Local Debt Division I, Local Debt Division II, Issuance and Payment Division, and Monitoring Management Division [4][5]. - Its responsibilities include formulating and implementing domestic debt management policies, managing the issuance and repayment of government debts, and overseeing external debt management [5][6]. Group 3: Current Context and Future Outlook - The establishment of the Debt Management Department coincides with a critical period for local government debt, as the government plans to increase local debt resources by 10 trillion yuan by November 2024 [9]. - Recent data indicates that by the end of August 2025, 4 trillion yuan of a one-time increase in special debt limits has already been issued, with ongoing efforts to address hidden debt risks [9][11]. - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of balancing debt management with economic development, aiming for a sustainable cycle between growth and risk management [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is enhancing its debt management system, focusing on both debt reduction and economic development, particularly addressing local hidden debts and debts owed by local governments to enterprises [4][6][9]. Group 1: Debt Management Structure - The establishment of the Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance indicates a more centralized and strengthened approach to debt management [4][6]. - The new department will oversee the formulation and execution of domestic debt management policies, including monitoring and regulating hidden debt risks [6][9]. - The creation of a "Monitoring and Management Division" suggests a shift towards a more systematic and proactive approach to debt risk management [6]. Group 2: Current Debt Situation - As of the end of 2024, China's total government debt is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan, with a government debt ratio of 68.7% [7]. - The debt includes 34.6 trillion yuan in national bonds, 47.5 trillion yuan in local government legal debts, and 10.5 trillion yuan in hidden local government debts [7]. - Compared to G20 and G7 countries, China's government debt ratio is relatively lower, indicating that the debt is manageable and linked to quality assets [7]. Group 3: Future Debt Management Strategies - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement a dual approach of debt reduction and economic development, emphasizing the importance of managing existing hidden debts while promoting growth [9]. - Strategies include early allocation of future debt limits, strict management of local government debt limits, and enhancing the lifecycle management of special bonds [9]. - The focus will also be on improving the efficiency of bond fund usage and establishing a robust risk monitoring and early warning system [9]. Group 4: Economic Perspective on Debt - The role of government debt in stimulating demand and filling investment gaps in the private sector is highlighted as a crucial aspect of maintaining economic balance [10]. - The emphasis is on the overall macroeconomic performance rather than merely reducing debt levels, suggesting that government debt can be beneficial under certain conditions [10].