上证报记者 史丽 摄 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 张琼斯）中央财经大学校长马海涛1月10日在第三十届中国资本市场论坛上谈及对今年财税体制改革和财政政策的建议时表示， 坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，推动投资止跌回稳；加快构建同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理长效机制。 （来源：上证报） 他表示，更加积极的财政政策，应在总量上保持必要力度，在结构上持续优化方向，通过"投资于物"与"投资于人"的协同发力，推动投资止跌回稳，夯实经 济恢复向好的基础。 "债务管理并非单纯做减法，而是要通过科学管理，使债务规模与'推动高质量发展''现代化产业体系建设'的需求相匹配。"马海涛表示，一是要构建跨周期 中期预算框架，突破年度平衡的思维束缚；二是强化财政政策与货币政策高效协同，畅通货币政策传导机制；三是优化央地债务结构；四是优化专项债用途 管理，多措并举激发有效投资活力。 责编:陈玉尧 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 ...

【1月10日中央财经大学校长称2026年财政工作重点是政府债务管理】1月10日，中央财经大学校长马海 涛在第三十届中国论坛上透露，实施更积极财政政策，要把政府债务管理作为2026年财政工作重点。他 指出要坚持"投资于物"和"投资于人"紧密结合，推动投资止跌回稳。马海涛还表示，积极财政政策在总 量上要保持必要力度，结构上持续优化，以"投资于物"扩大有效投资规模。政府债务管理并非单纯做减 法，要通过科学管理让债务规模与高质量发展、现代化产业体系需求相匹配。 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 中央财经大学校长:2026年财政重抓 债务管理与投资协调 【1月10日中央财经大学校长称2026年财政工作重 点是政府债务管理】1月10日,中央财经大学校长 马海涛在第三十届中国论坛上透露,实施更积极财 政政策,要把政府债务管理作为2026年财政工作重 点。他指出要坚持"投资于物"和"投资于人"紧 密结合,推动投资止跌回稳。马海涛还表示,积极 财政政策在总量上要保持必要力度,结构上持续优 化,以"投资于物"扩大有效投资规模。政府债务 管理并非单纯做减法,要通过科学管理让债务规模 与高质量发展、现代化产业体系需求相匹配 ...

钛媒体App 1月10日消息，中央财经大学校长马海涛今日在第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛上 表示，实施更加积极的财政政策，要把政府债务管理作为2026年财政工作的重点，要坚持"投资于 物"和"投资于人"的紧密结合，推动投资止跌回稳。马海涛指出，更加积极的财政政策要在总量上保持 必要的力度，结构上要持续优化，特别是"投资于物"与"投资于人"的协调发力，以"投资于物"为抓手扩 大有效的投资规模。另外，政府的债务管理并不是单纯的做减法，要通过科学管理来使债务的规模和推 动高质量发展、现代化产业体系需求相匹配。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - The national fiscal work conference emphasizes the need for comprehensive strengthening of fiscal scientific management and the implementation of stringent financial discipline within government agencies to promote high-quality fiscal development [1] Group 1: Fiscal Management Strategies - The conference advocates for a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches to advance fiscal scientific management pilot programs [1] - It stresses the importance of balancing responsibility enforcement with mechanism improvement to maintain the "three guarantees" baseline [1] - The need to manage government debt effectively while addressing risks and establishing long-term mechanisms is highlighted [1] Group 2: Fiscal and Tax System Reform - The conference calls for a steady yet bold exploration of fiscal and tax system reforms [1] - It emphasizes the importance of managing and utilizing state assets effectively to enhance the national asset management system [1] Group 3: Financial Oversight - There is a focus on the precise identification of issues and effective problem-solving to strengthen financial accounting supervision [1]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in China has reached a historic high this year, with a significant portion of the funds allocated for debt repayment rather than new projects [2][3]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - In the first 11 months of this year, approximately 10 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, surpassing last year's total of about 9.8 trillion yuan [2]. - The issuance of refinancing bonds accounted for about 4.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 20%, while new bond issuance was about 5.2 trillion yuan, up about 11% year-on-year [2][3]. - Approximately 62% of the bond funds issued were used for repaying old debts, including refinancing existing hidden debts and settling overdue payments to enterprises [3][6]. Group 2: Allocation of Funds - Of the funds allocated for project construction, about 27% was directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 17% towards transportation infrastructure, and 12% towards affordable housing projects [6]. - This year, the scope of special bonds has significantly expanded, allowing for allocations towards land reserves, which previously were restricted, with over 500 billion yuan directed to such projects [6]. - Special bonds have also been allocated for government investment funds, exceeding 80 billion yuan, aimed at supporting early-stage technology enterprises and hard technology sectors [6]. Group 3: Debt Management and Risks - As of September 2025, the total local government debt is projected to be around 53.7 trillion yuan, remaining within the limit of approximately 57.9 trillion yuan [8]. - The average remaining maturity of local government bonds is 10.5 years, with an average interest rate of 2.86% [8]. - There is a need for careful management of local government debt growth to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability, with suggestions to optimize the debt structure between central and local governments [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy and enhancing fiscal sustainability, marking a shift from the previous plan's focus on establishing a modern fiscal and tax system [1] Group 1: Central-Local Fiscal Relations - The plan suggests strengthening central authority and increasing the central government's fiscal expenditure ratio while enhancing local fiscal autonomy, especially as reliance on land finance decreases [2][3] - Central government transfer payments to local governments have exceeded 10 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, indicating a commitment to increasing local fiscal capacity [2] - The central fiscal expenditure ratio is currently below 15%, which is lower than that of major countries, highlighting the need for reform to better align responsibilities and resources between central and local governments [3] Group 2: Debt Management - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for government debt management is crucial, with a focus on addressing existing hidden debts and preventing new ones [4] - Transparency in local government debt information is essential, and debt management should consider sustainability and market conditions to minimize financing costs [4] - The government aims to optimize debt structure and scale, ensuring that debt management aligns with high-quality development goals [4] Group 3: Tax System Reform - The plan calls for deepening tax system reforms to ensure that tax obligations align with the capacity of microeconomic entities, addressing discrepancies in tax burdens [6][7] - The macro tax burden has been decreasing since 2017, with projections indicating that tax revenue will account for less than 13% of GDP by 2024, which may not be sustainable given the fiscal pressures [6] - Tax incentives should be rationalized to avoid market distortions and ensure fair competition, while direct tax systems need to be improved to promote social equity [7] Group 4: Zero-Based Budgeting Reform - The introduction of zero-based budgeting is seen as a critical reform to break the rigid expenditure patterns and improve the efficiency of fiscal resources [8][9] - Challenges in zero-based budgeting include reconciling legal spending requirements with the need for more efficient budget allocations [8][9] - Successful implementation of zero-based budgeting has been observed in various regions, enhancing fiscal management and resource allocation [9] Group 5: Proactive Fiscal Policy - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand effective demand, support technological self-reliance, and promote rural modernization and high-quality employment [11] - The policy will also address demographic changes and focus on risk prevention in key areas to create a conducive environment for fiscal policy implementation [11] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a foundational period for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, necessitating strategic actions to overcome challenges and leverage opportunities [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies to enhance fiscal sustainability during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, contrasting with the previous "14th Five-Year Plan" which focused on establishing a modern fiscal and tax system [2][19] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests strengthening central authority and increasing the proportion of central fiscal expenditure while enhancing local financial autonomy, especially in the context of declining reliance on land finance [3][4] - The central government's transfer payment budget has exceeded 10 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, indicating a significant effort to increase local financial autonomy [4][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the need for a long-term mechanism for government debt management that aligns with high-quality development, highlighting the establishment of a debt management department by the Ministry of Finance [6][7] - Transparency in local government debt information is crucial for effective debt management, and there is a need to enhance the proactive management of local government debt [7] - The article points out that the macro tax burden should be reasonable and aligned with fiscal expenditure, as the tax revenue to GDP ratio has been declining since 2017, which is not conducive to high-quality development [8][13] Group 3 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to deepen tax system reforms to ensure that tax obligations correspond with the tax capacity of micro entities, addressing discrepancies in tax burdens [8][13] - Zero-based budgeting reform is highlighted as a significant initiative to break the rigid expenditure patterns and improve the efficiency of fiscal resources [14][15] - The article notes that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for laying the foundation for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, requiring strategic actions to overcome challenges and enhance economic resilience [17][19]

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing attention on government debt in China as a key variable in macroeconomic operations, highlighting its scale, structure, function, and sustainability amidst a complex economic environment [1] Government Bond Types and Maturity Structure - The types of government bonds in China are primarily classified into deficit debt and self-repaying debt, with a predominance of medium-term bonds and a relative scarcity of short-term bonds [2] - Government bonds serve as a source of liquidity in the financial market and are an important component of wealth for non-financial sectors, but their role in wealth composition for residents remains underexplored [2] Debt Growth Rate Comparison - Since the 21st century, there has been a global focus on debt crises, with a notable increase in government debt in China, particularly local government debt, while the debt growth rate for non-financial sectors, including households and enterprises, has been declining [3] Bond Purchaser Structure - The identity of bond purchasers significantly influences the macroeconomic impact of bond issuance, with non-financial sector purchases involving only fund transfers and no monetary creation, while central bank purchases can create money [4] - In China, commercial banks are the primary holders of government bonds, which has implications for inflation effects [6] Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt sustainability is a long-standing and contentious issue, with international standards suggesting a deficit rate not exceeding 3% and a debt-to-GDP ratio not exceeding 60% [11] - The sustainability of debt can be assessed through various metrics, including the ratio of debt to earnings before interest and taxes for enterprises and the ratio of debt to payable income streams at the macro level [11] Role of Central Banks in Debt Management - The role of central banks in managing government bonds and liquidity is crucial, with recent reports emphasizing the need for liquidity management to align with economic growth and price stability [12] - Central banks are increasingly focusing on asset price stability and have adapted their policies to enhance financial market stability, particularly in the context of government bond management [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In October, the approval of urban investment bonds showed characteristics of a slight decline in registration quota, a marginal acceleration in the approval rhythm, and a slight decline in the scale of terminated projects, with the overall financing rhythm slowing down. The supply - structure differentiation and the gap between strong and weak urban investment bonds further widened. The approval rhythm showed marginal relaxation, but the approval for urban investment platforms with different qualifications remained significantly differentiated. The establishment of the Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance in 2025 indicates stricter debt supervision, and it is recommended to continue to monitor the implementation of policy tools and relevant regulatory dynamics of the Debt Management Department [6][53]. Summary by Catalog 1. Registration Status: Slight Decline in Urban Investment Registration Quota - Overall registration: In October, the registration quota of urban investment platforms decreased slightly. The registration scale of the exchange decreased significantly, from 2338 billion yuan to 1868 billion yuan, while that of DCM increased slightly, from 1886 billion yuan to 2065 billion yuan [12]. - By administrative level: The registration scales of provincial and municipal urban investment platforms decreased. The proposed issuance scale of provincial urban investment registration projects dropped from 945 billion yuan to 631 billion yuan, and that of prefecture - level cities dropped from 1588 billion yuan to 1302 billion yuan. The proposed issuance scale of district - level urban investment registration projects increased from 1691 billion yuan to 2000 billion yuan, and its three - month moving average proportion rose to 42% [15]. - By district and county qualifications: The registration scale of districts and counties with weak qualifications decreased significantly. The registration scale of district - level platform bonds with a budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan dropped from 675 billion yuan to 408 billion yuan, and the three - month moving average proportion decreased to 39.2% [18]. - By province: The scales in regions such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Sichuan decreased significantly month - on - month. The scales in Sichuan, Anhui, and Shaanxi continued to decline. The scale growth in Jiangsu was mainly at the district - level, while that in Tianjin increased significantly month - on - month [20]. 2. Approval Feedback: Marginal Acceleration in Urban Investment Bond Approval - By issuance venue: In October, the DCM and exchange approval rhythms for urban investment bonds both accelerated. The number of effective sample bonds registered in DCM was 300, a significant decrease from the previous month, and that in the exchange was 81, also a significant decrease. The average number of feedbacks in DCM increased from 2.4 to 2.5 times, and the feedback time decreased from 41.5 days to 40.6 days. The average number of feedbacks in the exchange decreased from 4.1 to 3.7 times, and the feedback time decreased from 80.6 days to 70 days [28]. - By issuance method and level: The feedback times of public and private urban investment corporate bonds in prefecture - level cities and district - level cities decreased to varying degrees [33]. - By province: The approval rhythms in Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Fujian and other places accelerated significantly. The approval speeds in Zhejiang, Anhui, and Shanxi continued to improve, while the approval feedback days in Sichuan, Hubei, Guangdong and other places were significantly extended [37]. - By district and county qualifications: The approval rhythm of platform bonds in districts and counties with weak qualifications slowed down. The feedback days of district - level platforms with a general budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan increased from 70.3 days to 72.6 days, lower than the average of last year. The approval rhythms of district - level platforms with a general budget revenue of 5 - 8 billion yuan and 10 - 30 billion yuan accelerated significantly [39]. 3. Terminated Issuance: Slight Decline in the Scale of Terminated Projects - Overall situation: In October, the scale of terminated projects decreased slightly. The proposed issuance scale of terminated urban investment bonds decreased from 13 billion yuan to 12.5 billion yuan, and the number of terminated projects decreased from 9 to 6. The terminated scale of district - level urban investment bonds decreased significantly, and its three - month moving average proportion decreased to 46%. The scale of terminated projects at the municipal level increased significantly, and there were no terminated projects at the provincial level. The three - month moving average proportion of the number of terminated projects in districts and counties with weak qualifications (local budget revenue of less than 5 billion yuan) continued to decline to 30.6% [42]. - By province: Terminated projects of urban investment platforms mainly occurred in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei. The scale of terminated projects in Shandong was mainly at the district - level platform, while those in Henan and Hebei were mainly affected by prefecture - level platforms [50].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Debt Management Department by the Ministry of Finance aims to centralize and enhance the management of government debt, addressing the previous fragmented approach and focusing on risk prevention and management of hidden debts [1][2][3] Debt Management Structure - The new Debt Management Department consists of six divisions, consolidating various functions previously scattered across different departments, thus improving efficiency in public debt management [1][2] - The main responsibilities of the Debt Management Department include comprehensive monitoring and management of both visible and hidden debts, ensuring effective debt replacement and risk mitigation [3][4] Current Debt Landscape - As of the end of 2024, the total government debt in China is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan, comprising 34.6 trillion yuan in national debt, 47.5 trillion yuan in local government legal debt, and approximately 10.5 trillion yuan in hidden debts [2] - The hidden debt issue is significant, with estimates suggesting that the actual interest-bearing debt of local government financing platforms exceeds 60 trillion yuan, leading to annual interest costs of over 3 trillion yuan [3][4] Debt Replacement and Risk Mitigation - The ongoing debt replacement initiative, amounting to 10 trillion yuan, is expected to enhance the monitoring and effectiveness of debt management, reducing the risk of increasing hidden debts [3][4] - Recent data indicates a significant reduction in the number of financing platforms and their outstanding financial debt, with decreases of 71% and 62% respectively from March 2023 to September 2025 [4] Market Response and Financing Costs - The issuance rates for local government bonds have shown a downward trend, with the average rate dropping from 3.59% in early October 2024 to a low of 2.21% in July 2025, reflecting a favorable financing environment [6][7] - Loan interest rates for local financing platforms have also decreased significantly, with some banks reporting reductions of nearly 60 basis points compared to the beginning of the year [6][7] Transformation of Financing Platforms - The successful transformation of financing platforms hinges on their ability to achieve independent debt repayment capabilities and to transition from reliance on government subsidies to market-driven revenue streams [8][11] - Regions with strong economic foundations are leading the market-oriented transformation, while smaller provinces are receiving more favorable debt replacement quotas to alleviate their debt pressures [10][11] Regulatory and Strategic Focus - Future regulatory efforts will likely emphasize guiding financing platforms towards sustainable and diversified growth, with a focus on investments that generate stable cash flows and align with national strategic goals [11]