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新华社联合国1月8日电（记者潘云召）联合国8日发布《2026年世界经济形势与展望》报告，预测2026 年世界经济将增长2.7%，略低于2025年2.8%的预估增速。 ...

新华社北京1月3日电 特稿｜2026，世界经济五问 新华社记者欧阳为 俞懋峰 陈斯达 进入2026年，世界经济巨轮驶向一片新的海域。地缘冲突的阴云、单边主义保护主义造成的壁垒、 宏观经济政策的分化、新技术革命的冲击，共同编织出一幅复杂图景。全球大变局、大调整之下，世界 经济能否最终穿越不确定性的迷雾？全球增长面临哪些挑战与机遇？ 一问：世界经济增长前景如何 国际货币基金组织（IMF）、经合组织等主要国际经济机构和组织普遍预测，2026年世界经济增速 将有所放缓，持续的不确定性、部分国家更多的保护主义措施和劳动力供应失衡可能拖累增长，一些国 家的财政脆弱性、潜在金融市场风险等也可能威胁市场稳定。 也有观点认为，2026年全球经济有望继续保持稳定。野村全球宏观研究团队日前发布报告认为，在 人工智能驱动的投资热潮以及更具扩张性的货币与财政政策支持下，2026年全球经济将显现稳定乃至增 长加速的迹象，但各地区增长仍将出现不均衡格局。 作为全球最大经济体，美国经济前景预期不佳。在摩根大通公司和桥水投资公司任职的经济学家丽 贝卡·帕特森认为，美国经济中越来越多的结构性支柱正显现出不稳定迹象，积聚了不少风险。 在亚洲，绿色 ...

Core Viewpoint - China supports South Africa's continued participation in G20 cooperation, emphasizing its historical role and contributions to the group [1] Group 1 - South Africa successfully hosted the G20 summit in Johannesburg last month, receiving high praise from the international community [1] - The G20 has consistently upheld principles of unity, cooperation, and equal consultation among its members [1] - South Africa is a founding member of the G20 and has attended all previous summits, playing a significant role in the group's activities [1] Group 2 - China expresses anticipation for collaboration with South Africa and all G20 members to defend multilateralism and promote global economic growth [1] - The statement reflects China's commitment to enhancing global economic governance through collective efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's commitment to maintaining economic stability and growth amidst global challenges, highlighting the importance of domestic demand and international cooperation in enhancing global trade and investment [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Strategy - China aims to expand domestic demand as a strategic foundation, promoting interaction between consumption and investment, and enhancing the reliability of domestic circulation [2]. - The country plans to advance a modern industrial system focusing on intelligence, greenness, and integration, while strengthening industrial cooperation with other nations to improve global supply chains [2]. Group 2: International Cooperation - China expresses strong support for a UN-centered international system and multilateralism, seeking to enhance cooperation with the World Bank in areas such as knowledge sharing and RMB loans [3]. - The country is committed to supporting the IMF's operations in Shanghai and promoting quota reforms to assist low-income countries [3]. - There is a willingness to collaborate with the UN Conference on Trade and Development in fields like green minerals, digital economy, artificial intelligence, and low-carbon transition [3]. Group 3: Global Economic Impact - The achievements of China in recent years are recognized as significant contributions to global economic growth, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" expected to provide valuable certainty and strong momentum for the world economy [3]. - There is a collective appreciation for China's long-term support for the development of the Global South, with a focus on enhancing policy communication and cooperation in trade, investment, and green development [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of consumption as a key driver for economic growth in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, contributing approximately 60% to economic growth annually [1][2] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on building a consumption-driven growth mechanism, addressing policy barriers that inhibit consumption, and enhancing service consumption [2] - The article highlights that China's contribution to global economic growth remains around 30% annually, showcasing its role as a stable and reliable source of economic momentum [1][2] Group 2 - The article notes that China's total retail sales increased from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, and is expected to surpass 50 trillion yuan by 2025 [1] - The "Revitalising Consumption" forum will discuss critical topics such as the impact of technology on economic policy and the development of service consumption as a new wave in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Global South is emerging as a significant engine of world economic growth [1] - The share of emerging markets and developing countries in the global economy has increased from approximately 25% in the 1980s to 41% in 2024 [1] - The contribution of the Global South to world economic growth has risen from less than 40% in the 1980s to about 80% in recent years [1] Group 2 - The economic importance of the expanded BRICS nations has become more pronounced, positioning them as constructive and stabilizing forces for global economic growth [1] - Since 2000, the economic growth rate of the Global South has consistently outpaced that of developed economies, with an average growth rate of 4.03% from 2015 to 2024 compared to 1.95% for developed economies [1] - The projected economic growth rate for the Global South in 2024 is approximately 4.28%, significantly higher than the 1.80% expected for developed economies [1] - Forecasts indicate that the Global South's economic growth rate will be around 3.70% in 2025, still notably above the 1.38% for developed economies [1] Group 3 - Recent comprehensive development and progress in Global South countries have laid a solid foundation for enhancing trade and investment cooperation among them [2] - There is significant potential for future trade and investment cooperation among Global South countries, particularly through the provision of intermediate goods by emerging economies like the BRICS nations [2] - The elevation of the Global South's position in the global value chain will create more opportunities for trade and investment cooperation among these countries [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The President of Indonesia ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, which may exacerbate the shortage of tin ore supply; the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and short - term supply shows signs of improvement, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows [3] - In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level [3] - On the demand side, the sharp rise in tin prices has suppressed spot transactions. Most downstream enterprises are in a wait - and - see state and only make purchases based on strict rigid demand. Traders tend to sell at high prices, resulting in restricted overall transactions [3] - Social inventories have decreased, and the spot premium has rebounded to 400 yuan/ton; LME inventories are decreasing, and the spot premium is stable. Technically, with a decrease in positions and a fall in prices, attention should be paid to the 28 support level. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or try to go long with a light position on pullbacks, focusing on the 28 - 29 range [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 281,710 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai tin is 180 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,290 US dollars/ton, down 460 US dollars; the position volume of the main Shanghai tin contract is 28,565 lots, down 761 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 1,533 lots, down 829 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 2,385 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 5,879 tons, down 550 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 190 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,677 tons, up 50 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 281,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 282,070 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [3] - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 10 yuan/ton, down 1,580 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 113 US dollars/ton, down 7.01 US dollars [3] - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 10,300 tons, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 182,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, unchanged; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,109,300 tons, up 144,800 tons [3] Industry News - Li Qiang chaired a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing counter - cyclical regulation, expanding domestic demand, and building an industrial ecosystem [3] - Powell left the door open for Fed rate cuts, saying the outlook has not changed much since the September meeting, employment downside risks are significant, and the Fed may be close to stopping balance - sheet reduction [3] - Fed Governor Bowman expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, and the current more significant risk lies in employment. The Fed is promoting a phased reform proposal for the stress - testing process [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, forecasting that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the July forecast, and maintain the 2026 growth forecast at 3.1%. The IMF also slightly raised the economic growth forecasts of the United States for this year and next by 0.1 percentage points and kept China's economic growth forecast for this year at 4.8% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: On hold [9] - Options: short put @ 83,000 yuan/ton [9] Core View of the Report The copper price strengthened during the National Day due to the resumption of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and frequent mine - end disturbances. However, the processing fee of - 40 dollars/ton already reflects the tightening of mine - end resources, so the short - term price increase caused by mine - end disturbances may not be sustainable. When the Sino - US trade dispute seemed to intensify last Friday, the copper price declined. But low processing fees and the Fed's interest - rate cut limit the downside of the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 85,800 yuan/ton and closed at 84,410 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 84,180 yuan/ton and closed at 84,890 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 20 to a premium of 120 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 50 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. The spot price was 85,780 - 86,200 yuan/ton. The market's purchasing and selling sentiment was weak. It is expected that trading will be light on the last trading day of the 2510 contract, but the premium may rise after the contract change [2]. Important Information Summary - Fed Chairman Powell said employment and inflation prospects have changed little since September, and the Fed will adjust monetary policy based on economic prospects and risk balance. He also mentioned that the balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months. The IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.2% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from July's forecast, and 3.1% in 2026. The US economic growth forecast for this year and next was slightly raised by 0.1 percentage points, while China's growth rate for this year was maintained at 4.8% [3]. Supply - Side Information Mine End - Freeport Indonesia will suspend its Manyar smelter due to copper concentrate supply shortages after a mudslide at the Grasberg mine. The Grasberg mine may not return to pre - accident operation levels until at least 2027. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 copper equivalent production increased 10% year - on - year to 204,000 tons, and copper production is expected to reach the upper end of the 2025 target [4]. Smelting and Import - Around 600,000 tons of copper flowed into the US before the tariff increase this year, with about 400,000 tons privately stored, which means the US doesn't need to import copper in the short term. Macquarie predicts the average LME copper price in 2026 will be 9,525 dollars/ton [5]. Consumption Information - In September, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, up 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year. From January to September, production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, up 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 138,800 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,405 tons to 36,295 tons. On October 13, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.72 million tons, up 0.057 million tons from the previous week [7][8].

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the July prediction [1] - The IMF attributes the upward revision to factors such as importers stockpiling goods due to U.S. tariff policies and efforts by most countries to maintain an open and stable global trade system [1] - However, the report warns that tariff shocks are further weakening the global economic growth outlook, indicating a fragile economic environment [1] Group 2 - The IMF highlights that China's robust economic growth will remain a crucial pillar for global economic support amid weak recovery and rising uncertainties [2] - According to current forecasts, China's economic growth is expected to contribute nearly one-third of global growth in 2025, driven by boosting its own economy and enhancing domestic demand [4] - The IMF signals that short-term growth resilience is masking long-term structural pressures, with U.S. tariff policy uncertainties impacting global price chains, supply chains, and investment confidence [4]