高盛称，中国股市将进入更为持久的上涨阶段，预计关键指数到2027年底将有约30%的上涨空间，主要 由12%的盈利趋势增长和5%-10%的进一步重估潜力推动。中国股票相对全球股市仍存在深度折价，潜 在的中国资产再配置资金规模可达数万亿美元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 相关机构表示，中美博弈抑制市场风偏，资金避险行为或需要等待不确定性消退，目前市场聚焦于四中 全会、美联储议息会议、APEC峰会中美领导人是否会晤等关键事件。中长期来看，牛市难言结束，回 调或恰是配置的良机。 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that there is still room for growth in the Chinese stock market, with improved investor sentiment and support for the recent rebound [1] - The influx of hedge fund capital and the significant savings of retail investors are identified as major driving forces behind the stock market's rise [1] Group 2: Government and Policy - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China are working together to ensure the stable and healthy development of the bond market, emphasizing the importance of coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [2] - The joint working group has achieved significant results since its establishment, and further collaboration is planned to enhance the effectiveness of policies [2] Group 3: Company News - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation will terminate the listing of China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Company on September 5, 2025, with a share conversion ratio of 1:0.1339 [4] - Dongxin Technology has begun sample deliveries to some clients and is progressing with product production and sales plans [5] - Jinli Permanent Magnet has upgraded its R&D department to focus on embodied robotics, which is expected to be a significant growth area for the company [6] - Weiman Sealing is expanding into the robotics sector, conducting customized R&D and sample testing [8] - Zhongcheng Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 100% of Jiangsu Qingneng Clean Energy Co., Ltd. for 151 million yuan, enhancing its position in the energy storage market [9] - Chengdu Huamei's new ADC chip has not yet achieved large-scale sales, with potential market demand uncertainties [9] - NanDu Power's high-voltage lithium battery products have received major certifications in the U.S. and are being used in data centers [11] - Aishida's subsidiary Qianjiang Robot has secured an order for 1,888 intelligent welding robots, indicating strong demand in the steel structure industry [13] - Robotech has signed a contract for automated silicon photonic packaging equipment worth approximately 946.50 million euros, expected to positively impact future performance [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese A-share market has reached a historic milestone, with the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan, driven by improved liquidity and attractive valuations, leading several foreign investment banks to raise their target levels for the Chinese stock market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 300 Index has risen approximately 10% this month, ranking among the best-performing major indices globally [3]. - As of the latest report, the CSI 300 Index has continued to rise slightly to 4482.19 points, indicating further upside potential compared to Goldman Sachs' new target [3]. Group 2: Analyst Predictions - HSBC's analyst team has raised their targets for domestic stock indices due to ample liquidity in China [4]. - JPMorgan estimates that the CSI 300 Index will increase by 24% and the MSCI China Index will rise by 35% by the end of 2026, despite signs of crowded investment [4]. Group 3: Liquidity and Investment Trends - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with a series of positive domestic policies in China, is expected to inject strong momentum into both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5]. - Recent data shows that the margin trading balance has increased to 2.1 trillion yuan, nearing levels seen during the 2015 boom [5]. - Domestic investors sold a record 20.4 billion Hong Kong dollars (approximately 2.6 billion USD) worth of Hong Kong-listed stocks, indicating a growing attractiveness of A-shares after the recent surge [5]. Group 4: Savings and Market Potential - The ratio of total market capitalization to household savings deposits in A-shares is at a historical low, suggesting significant potential for further capital inflow into the market [5]. - The structure of incremental capital is expected to diversify, including foreign capital replenishment and the migration of household deposits, contributing to market funding sources [5].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the appreciation of the RMB will drive the Chinese stock market up, with a 1% appreciation potentially leading to a 3% increase in stock prices [1][9]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation and Stock Market Impact - A 1% appreciation of the RMB is expected to push the Chinese stock market up by 3%, indicating a strong positive correlation between currency strength and stock performance [3][9]. - Empirical data shows that Chinese stocks tend to perform well during periods of currency appreciation, with a historical correlation coefficient of 35% and a beta of 1.9 since 2012 [4]. Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - The resilience of the RMB is attributed to several factors, including effective central bank management, improved competitiveness and diversification of Chinese exports, potential undervaluation of the RMB, and a general weakness of the USD [2]. - The direct trade exposure of China to the US has decreased over the past decade, with the US market accounting for approximately 15% of China's exports and 1.2% of listed company revenues in 2024, down from 19% and 1.6% in 2017 [2]. Group 3: Future RMB Exchange Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the USD/RMB exchange rate, predicting it will reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 in the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, indicating a potential 3% appreciation over the next year [2]. Group 4: Channels of Impact from RMB Appreciation - RMB appreciation can benefit Chinese stocks through various channels, including accounting effects, fundamental improvements, risk premium adjustments, and portfolio flows [5][6][7][8]. - Companies with USD-denominated debt or short positions in USD assets are expected to gain from foreign exchange trading profits when the USD weakens [6]. - A moderate appreciation of the RMB may alleviate concerns about capital outflows, positively impacting equity risk premiums and portfolio flows [8].