Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of January 6, 2026, is 1.13, an increase of 0.05 from December 30, 2025, driven by a rise in the coastal coal freight index [1][3] - The "import dry bulk freight index" remained stable at 1.15, indicating consistent shipping costs [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking a return to expansion for the first time since April 2025 [17] - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors saw PMIs of 52.5%, 50.4%, and 50.4%, respectively, all above the neutral line [17] - New orders index rose from 49.2% to 50.8%, and the production index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7% [2][17] - The procurement volume index also returned to expansion at 51.1%, indicating increased demand for raw materials [2][17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for December 2025 is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion [18] - The construction and service sectors reported indices of 52.8% and 49.7%, respectively, with construction rebounding after four months of contraction [18] Price Trends - The producer price index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, while the main raw material purchase price index remains high at 53.1% [2][17] Financial Market Indicators - The central bank's net cash withdrawal through open market operations was 695.9 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [5] - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 1 basis point to 1.33%, while the seven-day repo rate fell by 66 basis points to 1.49% [8] Real Estate Market - In the week ending January 6, 2026, new and second-hand home transaction areas in first-tier cities fell by 48.57% and 38.95%, respectively [30] - Second-tier cities saw a decline of 59.67% and 23.04% in transaction areas for new and second-hand homes [30] Consumer Behavior - The average daily box office for movies reached 154 million yuan, an increase of 78.64 million yuan from the previous week [32]

摘要 2025年12月16日第一财经研究院中国高频经济活动指数（YHEI）为1.05，较12月9日下降0.09。具体来看，截至12月16日的一周内，工业相关指标"沿海煤 炭运价指数"和"进口干散货运价指数"分别下降0.23和0.05，是本周YHEI下降的重要原因。 国家统计局公布11月经济数据。消费方面，11月，社会消费品零售总额为43898.0亿元，同比增速低于上月1.6个百分点至1.3%。其中，商品零售同比增速 低于上月1.8个百分点至1.0%；餐饮收入同比增速低于上月0.6个百分点至3.2%。今年1-11月，实物商品网上零售额占社会消费品零售总额比重由去年同期 的26.7%下降至25.9%。 第一财经研究院中国高频经济活动指数（YHEI） 2025年12月16日第一财经研究院中国高频经济活动指数（YHEI）为1.05，较12月9日下降0.09。具体来看，截至12月16日的一周内，工业相关指标"沿海煤 炭运价指数"和"进口干散货运价指数"分别下降0.23和0.05，是本周YHEI下降的重要原因。 外贸方面，按美元计值，11月进出口金额为5490.25亿美元，在上月短暂处于同比负增长区间后，当月同比回升4. ...

Group 1: Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) reached 1.28 on November 11, 2025, an increase of 0.09 from November 4 [1][4] - Industrial indicators such as the "Coastal Coal Freight Index" and "Imported Dry Bulk Freight Index" rose by 0.26 and 0.14 respectively, contributing significantly to the YHEI increase [1][4] Group 2: Price Indices - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2][41] - Core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [2][41] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][42] Group 3: Monetary Policy - As of November 11, the central bank net withdrew 627.5 billion yuan through open market operations [6][7] - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations amounted to 823.7 billion yuan, with 1-week reverse repo rates at 1.4% [6][7] Group 4: Interest Rates and Financing - The overnight interbank rate rose by 19 basis points to 1.55% over the past week [11][12] - The 1-year and 10-year government bond yields increased by 1.22 and 1.35 basis points to 1.4% and 1.81% respectively [11][17] Group 5: Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by 0.31%, 22.66%, and 0.54% respectively [33][35] - Second-hand housing transactions showed a divergence, with first and second-tier cities declining while third-tier cities increased by 16.93% [33][37] Group 6: Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index fell by 0.73 points to 99.48, while the RMB appreciated by 26 basis points to 7.1207 against the dollar [44][45] - The S&P Commodity Index rose by 1.79% to 4004.03, with energy and industrial metals indices increasing by 2.52% and 0.86% respectively [44]

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of August 19, 2025, is 1.15, down 0.05 from August 12 [1][3] - The "import dry bulk freight index" fell by 0.10 to 1.02, contributing to the decline in YHEI [1][3] - The "30-city commodity housing sales index" increased by 0.03 to 0.44, fluctuating between 0.41 and 0.45 since early August [1][3] Consumption and Retail - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780.2 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [25] - Retail sales of goods grew by 4.0%, down 1.3 percentage points from last month, while catering revenue increased by 1.1%, up 0.2 percentage points [25] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.3%, down from 4.8% in the previous month [25] Automotive Sector - Automotive sales saw a year-on-year growth of 14.66%, up from 13.83% last month, indicating continuous improvement over four months [25] Foreign Trade - In July, the trade surplus was 98.245 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 14.93%, but the growth rate decreased by 0.78 percentage points from the previous month [25] - Import and export amounts grew by 4.1% and 7.2% year-on-year, respectively, both higher than last month [25] Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points [26] - High-tech industries saw a growth rate of 9.3%, down 0.4 percentage points [26] - The production index for the service industry grew by 5.8%, slowing down by 0.2 percentage points for two consecutive months [26] Monetary Policy - The central bank's net fund injection through open market operations was 684.2 billion yuan as of August 19 [6] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was 1.4% [6] Interest Rates - The overnight interbank rate rose by 21 basis points to 1.57% over the past week [11][12] - The 1-year and 5-year swap rates increased by 2 and 5 basis points to 1.54% and 1.63%, respectively [15][18] Real Estate Market - In the week ending August 19, new and second-hand housing transaction areas in first-tier cities increased by 6.71% and 7.06%, respectively [42][45] - In contrast, third-tier cities saw a decrease in transaction areas by 5.13% and 29.2% for new and second-hand homes [42][45] Shipping and Logistics - The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CCBFI) rose by 30.48 points to 1,090.99 points [38] - The Baltic Dry Index fell by 53 points to 1,964 points [38] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index increased by 0.21 points to 98.28, while the RMB/USD exchange rate rose by 91 basis points to 7.182 [53][54]