Group 1: Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) was 1.05 as of January 13, 2026, a decrease of 0.09 from January 6, 2026. The decline was primarily attributed to a drop in the coastal coal freight index by 0.09 [2][1] - The import dry bulk freight index remained stable compared to the previous week [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - As of January 13, 2026, the central bank net withdrew 77.8 billion yuan through open market operations. The reverse repurchase amount for the week was 517.2 billion yuan, with 595 billion yuan maturing [4][5] Group 3: Interest Rates and Financing - The overnight interbank rate rose by 17 basis points to 1.5% over the past week, and the seven-day repurchase rate increased by 8 basis points to 1.57% [9][10] - The one-year swap rate increased by 1.43 basis points to 1.52%, while the five-year swap rate decreased by 0.42 basis points to 1.64% [12][9] - The yields on one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bonds fell by 10, 2.23, and 3.1 basis points to 1.26%, 1.64%, and 1.85%, respectively [15][9] Group 4: Industrial Sector - As of January 13, 2026, the price of steel billets increased by 1.37% week-on-week, while cement prices decreased by 1.12% [22][23] - The operating rate of short-process steel mills rose from 67.71% to 70.83% over the past month [22] - The operating rate for full steel tire production decreased to 58.02%, down from 58.15% the previous week [22] Group 5: Shipping and Real Estate - The coastal bulk freight index decreased by 5.98 points to 1012.77 points as of January 13, 2026 [30] - In first-tier cities, new and second-hand housing transaction areas increased by 0.05% and 32.04%, respectively [31][33] - The land transaction area in 100 cities was 12.64 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 63.63% [31] Group 6: Consumer Prices - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with urban prices increasing by 0.9% and rural prices by 0.6% [39][41] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [39][41] Group 7: Global Perspective - The US dollar index rose by 0.58 points to 99.18, while the RMB/USD exchange rate decreased by 48 basis points to 6.9765 [42][44] - The VIX index increased by 1.23 points to 15.98 [49]

Loan and Credit Trends - In December, new loans amounted to 910 billion yuan, down from 990 billion yuan in the same month last year[1] - Household loans decreased by 91.6 billion yuan, significantly lower than the 350 billion yuan increase in the same month last year[1] - Corporate loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan, surpassing the 490 billion yuan increase from the previous year[1] Social Financing and Government Support - New social financing in December was approximately 2.2 trillion yuan, lower than the 2.85 trillion yuan in the same month last year[2] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease from 8.5% in November[2] - Net financing from government bonds was 683.3 billion yuan, significantly lower than the 1.76 trillion yuan increase in the same month last year[2] Monetary Policy and Currency Trends - M2 money supply grew by 8.5% year-on-year in December, an increase from 8% in the previous month[2] - M1 money supply growth slowed to 3.8%, down from 4.9% in the previous month[2] - Foreign exchange reserves decreased by 2.7 billion yuan, but the decline was notably smaller than in previous months[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, a declining real estate market, and insufficient domestic policy support[4]

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of December 16, 2025, is 1.05, a decrease of 0.09 from December 9, 2025. The decline is attributed to drops in the "coastal coal transportation price index" and "import dry bulk freight index" by 0.23 and 0.05 respectively [1][3]. Consumption Data - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. Retail sales of goods grew by 1.0%, and catering revenue increased by 3.2% [24][25]. - The proportion of online retail sales of physical goods in total retail sales decreased from 26.7% in the same period last year to 25.9% [24]. Foreign Trade - In November, the total import and export value was 549.025 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.3% after a brief period of negative growth. Exports and imports grew by 5.9% and 1.9% respectively, with the trade surplus increasing by 20.68 percentage points year-on-year to 14.74% [24][25]. Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 4.8% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. High-tech industries saw an increase of 8.4%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [25]. - The mining sector's added value growth rose from 4.5% to 6.3%, while manufacturing and electricity, gas, and water supply sectors saw declines to 4.6% and 4.3% respectively [25]. Monetary Policy - As of December 16, 2025, the central bank's net fund injection through open market operations was 55.6 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase amount of 695.1 billion yuan and an expiration of 639.5 billion yuan. The 7-day reverse repurchase rate stood at 1.4% [5][10]. Interest Rates - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 3 basis points to 1.37%, while the 7-day repurchase rate remained stable at 1.50%. The 1-year and 5-year swap rates were consistent with previous levels at 1.54% and 1.63% respectively [10][15]. Real Estate Market - In the week ending December 16, 2025, new and second-hand housing transaction areas in first-tier cities increased by 22.62% and 9.18% respectively. In second-tier cities, the increases were 8.98% and 6.56%, while third-tier cities saw increases of 38.5% and 14.78% [35][41]. Shipping and Logistics - The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CCBFI) decreased by 66.79 points to 1,058.23 points, while the Baltic Dry Index fell by 353 points to 2,204 points. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 3.18 to 1,118.07 [33][42].

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of November 18, 2025, is 1.25, a decrease of 0.03 from November 11 [1][3] - Industrial indicators such as the "coastal coal freight index" and "import dry bulk freight index" fell by 0.21 and 0.03 respectively, contributing to the decline in YHEI [1][3] Consumption and Retail - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month [25] - The growth rate of commodity retail sales decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%, marking five consecutive months of decline; however, catering revenue increased by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8%, the highest level since June [25] Foreign Trade - In October, the total import and export value was 520.632 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, marking the first negative growth since March this year [25] - The import growth rate dropped from 7.4% in September to 1.0%, while the export growth rate fell from 8.3% to -1.1% [25] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for enterprises above designated size grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2][25] - The mining and manufacturing sectors saw their added value growth rates decline to 4.5% and 4.9% respectively, while the production and supply of electricity, gas, and water rebounded to 5.4% [2][25] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - As of November 18, the central bank net injected 465.1 billion yuan through open market operations, with a 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [6] - The overnight interbank rate rose by 3 basis points to 1.58%, and the 7-day repurchase rate increased by 2 basis points to 1.54% [8][10] Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first and third-tier cities decreased by 1.31% and 12.7% respectively, while second-tier cities saw a significant increase of 39.19% [41][42] - The average daily transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 9.02%, 5.04%, and 15.21% in first, second, and third-tier cities respectively [44] Shipping and Logistics - The coastal bulk freight index rose by 14.65 points to 1250.56, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 144 points to 2216 [37] - The container freight index for exports was 1094.03, up by 35.86 from November 7 [37] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index increased by 0.11 points to 99.59, and the RMB to USD exchange rate rose by 82 basis points to 7.1125 [50][52] - The VIX index rose by 7.41 points to 24.69, indicating increased market volatility [57]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic market interest rates are on an upward trend, influenced by strong short-term funding demand and a rebound in medium to long-term rates [1] Interest Rate Summary - As of November 17, the overnight, 1-week, 2-week, 6-month, and 9-month Shibor rates are reported at 1.508%, 1.514%, 1.55%, 1.62%, and 1.64% respectively, showing increases of 2.9, 3.6, 5.8, 0.15, and 0.1 basis points compared to November 10 [1] - The 3-month and 1-year Shibor rates remain unchanged at 1.52% and 1.65% respectively, while the 1-month Shibor rate decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.52% [1] Liquidity and Policy Outlook - A total of 1.12 trillion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature this week, with the central bank conducting a 283 billion yuan reverse repo operation yesterday, indicating a clear stance to support liquidity and stabilize interest rate fluctuations [1] - October's domestic social financing and new RMB loan data showed average performance, with an overall decline in financing demand, suggesting a higher probability of weak interest rate market conditions [1] - Year-end policy announcements are expected to be frequent, prompting investors to closely monitor changes in the policy landscape [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 112 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] - The amount of cash in circulation (M0) was 13.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1] Group 2 - In the first ten months of the year, new RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 739.6 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 13.79 trillion yuan [1] - The increase in corporate loans included a rise of 4.34 trillion yuan in short-term loans and 8.32 trillion yuan in medium to long-term loans [1] - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank noted that the M2 growth rate slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, but remained 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][2] Group 3 - The "M2-M1 spread" widened to 2 percentage points, indicating a continued trend of funds being converted into demand deposits, which reflects increased business activity and a gradual recovery in personal investment and consumption demand [2] - The October loan data showed a year-on-year decrease, attributed to the traditional off-peak season for credit, highlighting the importance of observing social financing to assess overall financial support [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize prices [1] Monetary Policy Implementation - The report advocates for the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions while improving the monetary policy framework [1] - It aims to ensure that the growth of social financing scale and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Price Stability - Promoting a reasonable rebound in prices is highlighted as a key consideration for monetary policy [1] - The report suggests enhancing the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthening the guidance of central bank policy rates [1] Financing Costs - The goal is to lower the cost of bank liabilities and reduce the overall financing costs for society [1] - The report emphasizes the dual function of monetary policy tools in terms of both total volume and structure [1] Support for Key Areas - The report outlines a commitment to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade through targeted monetary policy tools [1] Exchange Rate Management - A managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand is proposed, with an emphasis on maintaining exchange rate flexibility [1] - The report aims to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate and maintain the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Financial Stability - The exploration of expanding the central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions is mentioned to maintain market stability [1] - The report stresses the importance of avoiding systemic financial risks [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese property market shows signs of slight improvement, with the decline in contracted sales in 9M25 narrowing compared to 8M25, and more developers reporting year - on - year increases in September 2025. However, overall sales are still down significantly year - on - year [8][9][10]. - China's social financing flow beat market expectations, but its growth remained weak, and government bond issuance slowed down. Credit demand in the real economy was subdued, and the central bank is likely to maintain ample liquidity and support credit growth with expected cuts in LPR and RRR in 4Q25 [4][12][13]. - China's CPI marginally recovered due to a rebound in food prices, core CPI rose, and PPI narrowed its contraction. Demand - side stimulus and supply - side restructuring are needed to support economic recovery, and a policy easing window is expected in 4Q25 [17][18][19]. Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, spreads of some bonds tightened or widened, such as KEBHNB Float 28/KEBHNB 30 tightening 3 - 5bps, KOROIL/HYUELE/HYNMTR belly bonds tightening 1 - 3bps, and PKX widening 1 - 2bps. Japanese AT1s and insurance hybrids firmed, while UBS bonds faced selling [2]. - In Greater China, higher - beta credits like NWDEVLs rose, MTRC perps increased, and some names in Macau gaming also went up. However, LASUDE 26 lost points, and some Chinese property bonds had price changes [2]. - This morning, Asia IG names were 1 - 2bps wider overall, and some bonds like VNKRLE 29/IHFLIN 28/FAEACO 12.814 Perp increased in price, while others decreased [4]. Chinese Properties - In 9M25, the contracted sales of 31 developers dropped 18.5% year - on - year to RMB1,285.6bn. Only 2 state - owned developers reported year - on - year increases, while several others had significant declines [9]. - In September 2025, 31 developers reported contracted sales of RMB136.3bn, a 9.9% year - on - year decrease from RMB151.3bn in September 2024. Nine out of 31 developers reported year - on - year increases in contracted sales, up from 4 in August 2025 [8]. China Economy Credit Weakness with Liquidity Easing - Social financing flows beat market expectations, but outstanding social financing growth edged down to 8.7% in September from 8.8% in August. Government bond issuance contracted, and corporate bond issuance continued to recover [13]. - New RMB loans remained subdued, with growth of outstanding RMB loans edging down to 6.6% in September. Credit demand in the household and corporate sectors was weak [14]. - The central bank is likely to maintain ample liquidity and support credit growth, with expected 10 bps LPR cut and 50 bps RRR cut in 4Q25 [16]. Mild Reflation in Upstream Sectors - China's CPI YoY recovered to - 0.3% in September from - 0.4% in August, and core CPI rose to 1% YoY, the highest since early 2024, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [19][20]. - PPI's year - on - year contraction narrowed to - 2.3% in September from - 2.9%, mainly driven by the rebound in the mining sector, while downstream consumer goods remained subdued [21]. - Policy easing is expected in 4Q25, including a 10bps LPR cut, 50bps RRR cut, and expanding fiscal stimulus towards consumption and the property market [18][23]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Newly priced issues include BOSC International Investment Ltd (USD60mn, 3M, 4.12% coupon), China Water Affairs (USD150mn, 5NC3, 5.875% coupon), and Chengdu Sino French Ecological (USD100mn, 3yr, 4.3% coupon) [25]. - There are no offshore Asia new issues in the pipeline today [26]. News and Market Color - There were 107 credit bonds issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB88bn, and month - to - date, 395 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB457bn, a 35.8% year - on - year increase [27]. - Various corporate news, such as BHP considering reviving copper mines, BOCOM redeeming bonds, and CIFIHG unveiling debt restructuring terms [27].

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,388, reflecting a 1.2% increase for the day and a 31.5% increase year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) closed at 9,365, with a 1.1% daily increase and a 28.5% year-to-date increase [1] - The MSCI China index showed a 1.3% increase for the day and a 34.7% increase year-to-date, closing at 87 [1] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil closed at $67 per barrel, with a 0.9% increase for the day but a 7.0% decrease year-to-date [2] - Gold prices reached $3,643 per ounce, marking a 0.2% increase for the day and a significant 38.8% increase year-to-date [2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 111.7% year-to-date, closing at 2,111 [2] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - The US Empire State Manufacturing Index reported an actual value of 11.9, exceeding the consensus of 4.9 [3] - The US Import Price Index showed a year-over-year change of -0.2%, against a consensus of 0.0% [3] - The Federal Funds Target Rate in the US was reported at 4.5%, higher than the consensus of 4.3% [3] China Internet Sector - Six key factors influencing the financials and valuations of China Internet companies in the next 6-12 months include AI, macro recovery, competition landscape, regulatory environments, shareholder return executions, and US-China tensions [8][10] - The ranking of sub-industries is as follows: cloud > online music = online game = online advertising > eCommerce > others [8][10] - Tencent, Alibaba, Netease, and TME are identified as mid- to long-term top picks, while Bilibili and Baidu are recommended for short-term investment [9][10] Auto Sector Update - The "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Automotive Industry (2025–26)" outlines 15 key initiatives aimed at expanding domestic consumption and enhancing supply quality [14][17] - The new plan emphasizes industry scale expansion and quality improvements, contrasting with the previous plan's focus on maintaining operations within a reasonable range [15][17] - Geely Automobile is favored for its market share gains, while NIO is expected to see a rerating due to operational improvements [16][18] Social Financing in China - The growth of outstanding social financing in China moderated from 9% in July to 8.8% in August, attributed to weakened government bond financing and subdued new loans [5][7] - Despite sluggish household consumption credits and mortgage loans, there is an increasing trend in household stock investment as savings have declined over the past two months [5][7] - Future growth in social financing is expected to stabilize with the advance of next year's bond issue quota for local government hidden debt replacement [6][7] Domestic AI Server Market - The domestic AI server market is projected to grow at 40% due to high demand for AI and uncertainties in Nvidia GPU supply [12][13] - Huawei, Cambircon, and Kunlunxin are ranked as the top three domestic AI platforms based on product competitiveness and supply stability [12][13] - There are concerns about oversupply risks in smaller computing clusters due to lack of economies of scale and inadequate technical support [12][13]

Core Insights - The central point of the article is the significant increase in government bond financing in July, which has contributed to the overall growth in social financing, with a net financing of 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] Group 1: Government Bond Financing - In July, the issuance of special bonds saw a substantial year-on-year increase, leading to a rise in government bond financing by 555.9 billion yuan [1] - Analysts suggest that government bond issuance will continue to support social financing in the second half of the year, although the pace may gradually slow down due to remaining quota considerations [1] Group 2: Impact on Loan Data - The impact of local government bond replacement on loan data remains significant, with an estimated 2.6 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds used for debt repayment, affecting loan growth by approximately 1 percentage point [1] - After adjusting for the impact of debt repayment, the year-on-year loan growth rate in July is close to 8%, indicating a relatively strong level [1] Group 3: Long-term Implications - Long-term, local debt replacement is expected to facilitate risk clearance and financial stability, allowing for more local financial resources to benefit people's livelihoods and promote development [1] - This process is also anticipated to release more credit resources to flow into the real economy [1]