张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 23 日 如何扭转增长速度放缓趋势 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 48 期） 频率：每周 投资需求的改善主要看中央财政扩张程度，消费需求的改善主要依赖服务消费 的回暖。 定期报告 相关报告 | 1、 | 开工率 5 | | --- | --- | | 2、 | 产能利用率 10 | | 3、 | 产量 14 | | 4、 | 价格 19 | | 5、 | 库存 26 | | 6、 | 房地产市场 31 | | 7、 | 出行与物流 34 | 1、《配置窗口逐渐开启——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-12-21 2、《地缘博弈持续———国际 时政周评》2025-12-21 3、《服务消费是提高居民消费 率的主要抓手之一—显微镜下 的 中 国 经 济 （ 2025 年 第 47 期）》2025-12-15 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 下半年以来，经济增长数据不断放缓。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2%, driven by improved food prices and robust service consumption[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, the highest level since March 2024[2] - Food CPI improved with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9%, while fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant price increases[3] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%, marking the first month of increase in 2025[5] - The PPI improvement is driven by the oil-petrochemical and coal-metallurgy sectors, indicating a unique price logic compared to other major industrial countries[5] - Domestic effective investment demand growth is constrained, prolonging the PPI recovery process due to ongoing real estate market adjustments[5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The upward trend in core CPI and PPI suggests a synchronized improvement, but the underlying inflation logic remains fragile[5] - Domestic consumption and effective investment demand are still weak, influenced by rising household debt during the real estate market's bottoming phase[5] - The necessity to expand domestic demand is emphasized, especially in light of cooling export growth and uncertainties from global supply chain restructuring[5]