证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 07 22 年 月 日 投资策略 中报预披露的历年对比与景气指引 一、策略专题：中报预披露的历年对比与景气指引 1.1 中报前瞻及历年预披露情况对比 中报预披露阶段主要存在两点特征，一是重点聚焦于盈利特征，二是披露 率较低、后续修正幅度可能较大。 盈利特征的分析维度主要包括估算的业绩增速、业绩增减与增速升降个股 占比、超 wind 一致预期与股价高开的个股占比：基于目前披露情况进行 估算，全 A 非金融 2025 中报业绩增速为 13.2%，环比改善 8.9pct；业绩 增长的个股占比为 62.4%，超过 50%的中枢，增速改善的个股占比则为 50.3%，略超中枢；对比 wind 一致预期，全 A 非金融中 47.8%的个股有 所超越，而结合市场反应看，股价高开超 5%的个股占比为 2.4%。 对比历年中报预披露情况看，估算出的全 A 非金融业绩增速及其环比变动 情况往往与最终结果存在明显差别，甚至可能无法实现线性相关，如 2022~2024 年中报估算的全 A 非金融业绩增速连续两年同比提升，实际 结果却是先下降后企稳。相比之下，业绩增长与增速 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights that the market is expected to reach a new level, with a focus on the performance of various sectors and companies [2] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with indices rebounding after a pullback, indicating a return of positive sentiment [3] - The report notes that global equity markets have mostly risen, with Asian markets leading the gains [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a cyclical bottom, with the dairy industry moving towards supply-demand balance and beef prices recovering [4] - In the retail sector, companies are actively positioning themselves for growth, with a focus on new consumption trends and improving performance in the restaurant and tourism industries [6] - The C-REITs market is witnessing strong interest, particularly in data center REITs, with a positive outlook for the low-interest environment and macroeconomic recovery [8] Group 3: Company Performance - Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) is projected to achieve a revenue of 4.96 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.9%, driven by significant increases in etching equipment sales [10] - The company has increased its R&D investment to approximately 1.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a growth of about 53.7%, which is significantly higher than the average R&D investment level of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [11] - Zhongwei Company aims to cover over 60% of semiconductor front-end equipment categories through both acquisitions and internal R&D, positioning itself as a leading supplier in the etching, film deposition, and measurement sectors [12][13]

首先，中东地缘事件成为扰动市场神经的重要边际变量。上周，以色列和伊朗的军事冲突的进展继 续成为影响全球股市的重要因素。对国内市场来说，主要的不确定性来自于原油价格的波动和航运市场 能否正常运转。从目前情况看，A 股市场仍具备一定韧性，上方有压力，下方有支撑，呈现箱体波动特 征。即将展开的中报预披露和国内政策动向是投资者短期关注的焦点以及行情运行的主要线索。 上周，两市震荡调整，日均成交有所下降。沪指上周先盘后跌，周中高点被五天均线压制，周五收 盘跌破 30 天均线。深圳成指上周围绕 60 天均线几番争夺后，破位下行，周五收盘已经跌破所有中短期 均线。量能方面，上周两市日均量能不到 12000 亿，较上周出现明显下降。上周市场热点主要集中在 TMT 和银行等行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格跌幅更大，大盘蓝筹相对抗跌。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在 5 月中旬的高点附近再次遇阻回落，关注 60 天均线支撑力度。沪指于 5 月初和 6 月初展开两波上攻行情，但均在年内高点附近遇到较强技术阻力，上周延续了调整态势。这 里提示我们：去年四季度的成交密集区以及今年一季度的市场高点附近仍有较强技术阻力。目前沪指下 方主要支 ...