不少人早就在猜，这几年美国加的关税到底给中国造成了多大冲击？ 12月8日海关总署一公布数据，所有人都愣住了——前11个月贸易顺差飙到1.08万亿美元，换算成人民币超7.2万亿！ 连《华尔街日报》都直言，这是"里程碑式"的成绩，谁都没料到重压之下的中国，反而交出了全球最好的贸易答卷。 先把最关键的数据摆出来，大家心里更有谱。 前11个月，中国对美出口确实降了，而且降得不少——3859.07亿美元，同比跌了18.9%，比去年少卖了近900亿美元。 光说数据可能有点干，讲个浙江汽车配件厂的真事儿。 要是放在以前，单这一项下滑就够让人揪心的，但今年偏不一样，咱们对欧盟出口涨了8.1%，东盟更是涨了13.7%，这两个市场加起来多卖的钱，不光补上 了对美出口的亏空，还多出了不少。 2025年还差不到一个月就收官，曾闹得沸沸扬扬的中美关税大战也渐归平静。 这家厂以前一半的订单都来自美国，2024年美国关税一加，订单直接砍了三成，老板当时愁得睡不着觉。 没别的办法，只能转头找新市场。 他们先去东南亚参加展会，把原本供美国的高端刹车片样品带过去，没想到当地车企正愁找不到靠谱的供应商，当场就签了两年的合同。 后来又跟着外贸平台去 ...

Core Insights - The US-China trade war has lasted seven years, with neither side being completely excluded, indicating a complex interdependence rather than a straightforward victory for either party [1][15][17] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The trade war began in 2018, initiated by the US imposing tariffs citing intellectual property and trade deficits, leading to immediate retaliatory measures from China [1] - From 2019 to 2020, tariffs escalated, and while a phase one agreement was reached, core tax rates remained unchanged, indicating ongoing tensions [3] - The US aimed to remove China from key supply chains to enhance national security and manufacturing, but the economic realities proved more complicated, with businesses and consumers bearing the brunt of increased costs [5][11] Group 2: Economic Impact - The average tariff rate in the US rose to 37.4%, resulting in an annual burden of approximately $2,400 per household, without achieving the expected reduction in inflation or a significant return of manufacturing [5][15] - Despite the trade war, China's imports and exports have shown growth, with a 4% increase in total trade and a 7.1% rise in exports, particularly notable in African markets [7] Group 3: Strategic Responses - China's response has included bolstering domestic demand, advancing technological independence, and moving towards higher-end manufacturing, reflecting a proactive rather than purely defensive strategy [9][11] - The trade conflict has accelerated China's industrial upgrades in sectors like semiconductors and AI, with a shift from import substitution to export competition [11] Group 4: Global Trade Relations - Many countries, while publicly aligning with the US, are pragmatically balancing their trade relations, indicating a complex global landscape rather than a simple alignment against China [13] - The long-term effects of the trade war will likely reshape corporate structures, supply chain strategies, and global trade dynamics, emphasizing the interdependence between the US and China [15][18] Group 5: Future Considerations - The focus will shift from high-intensity confrontations to rule-based negotiations regarding technology standards and financial settlements, which may have a more significant impact than tariffs [18] - Companies are advised to diversify risks and enhance supply chain resilience while navigating the balance between openness and security in policy [18]

Group 1 - The core issue of the ongoing tariff war is not merely about trade disputes but reflects a broader geopolitical struggle between the US and China, impacting industries, security, and strategy [2][17] - In 2025, the US raised tariffs on Chinese goods to unprecedented levels, with some rates reaching as high as 145%, significantly affecting various sectors including steel, automobiles, and electronics [4][6] - China's response to the tariffs has been strategic and multifaceted, including a 34% indiscriminate counter-tariff, export controls on rare earths, and the introduction of a list of unreliable entities [6][15] Group 2 - The US's attempts to decouple from China through initiatives like "reshoring" and "friend-shoring" have largely failed, as alternative countries lack the necessary infrastructure and supply chain capabilities to replace China's comprehensive industrial system [8][11] - China's logistics, efficiency, and industrial collaboration capabilities serve as significant competitive advantages, exemplified by major projects like the New Western Land-Sea Corridor and the China-Europe Railway Express [9] - The tariff war has inadvertently led to increased domestic demand in China, with contributions from domestic consumption to economic growth nearing 70% by 2025, indicating a shift towards a more self-reliant economy [13][15] Group 3 - The tariff conflict has highlighted the unsustainable nature of the US's strategy, resulting in domestic inflation and increased costs for American consumers, while China has used the situation to accelerate its industrial upgrades and structural adjustments [13][15] - The ongoing competition between the US and China is evolving, focusing on stability, resilience, and foresight rather than mere strength, suggesting a significant shift in the global economic landscape [19]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is increasingly distancing itself from China, focusing on maximizing profits while reducing reliance on Chinese suppliers and manufacturing, amidst a backdrop of escalating trade tensions between the US and China [1][68]. Group 1: Apple's Market Position - Apple generated $64.6 billion in revenue from the Chinese market last year, making it one of the largest foreign companies operating in China [3][4]. - Despite its significant revenue from China, Apple's share of components sourced from Chinese suppliers has dwindled to just 2% [7][20]. - In the first quarter of this year, Apple saw its market share in China shrink, with Huawei surpassing it to become the market leader [9][46]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Apple employs a "wolf-raising" strategy, squeezing profits from existing suppliers while nurturing secondary suppliers to prevent any single supplier from becoming too powerful [6][23]. - The company has shifted low-value manufacturing to developing countries, maintaining high profit margins by controlling design and marketing [12][18]. - In 2024, Apple captured 18% of global smartphone shipments, commanding nearly half of the market size and 80% of industry profits [13][18]. Group 3: Production Shifts - Apple plans to increase its manufacturing presence in India, aiming for 25% of its production to occur there by 2025 [26][32]. - The number of Apple factories in Vietnam has risen from 15 in 2018 to 35 currently, indicating a significant shift in production strategy [29]. - The share of iPhone production in India has increased from 1% to 14% over four years, while China's share has decreased from 98% to 85% [38]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Challenges - Apple's net profit margin reached 24% in the 2024 fiscal year, while the average net profit margin for 22 listed Chinese suppliers is only 4% [18]. - The decline in Apple's reliance on Chinese manufacturing has led to significant economic impacts in regions like Zhengzhou, where mobile phone exports dropped by 49.1% in the first half of 2024 [40][41]. - Companies like Luxshare Precision and OFILM have begun diversifying their business models to reduce dependence on Apple, with Luxshare expanding into automotive components [50][52]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Huawei has rebounded strongly, capturing 19.4% of the Chinese market in the first quarter, while Apple's market share has declined by 7.7% [46]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards domestic brands like Xiaomi and Huawei is contributing to a decline in Apple's market dominance in China [61][62]. - Apple faces increasing competition not only from domestic brands but also from its own supply chain partners, who are diversifying their client bases [50][58].