近期中美经贸博弈持续升温，引发全球市场关注。先是在美国商务部宣布将多家中国实体列入出口管 制"实体清单"后，中国商务部宣布将反无人机技术公司等外国实体列入不可靠实体清单，并会同海关总 署依法对超硬材料、稀土等相关物项实施出口管制措施；接着，针对美国自10月14号起对中国公司拥有 或运营的船舶、中国造船舶、中国籍船舶加收港口服务费，中国交通运输部也宣布对美船舶收取船舶特 别港务费。此外，航空、半导体等领域也成为双方博弈的焦点领域。那么本轮中美经贸博弈将如何影响 全球贸易格局？又是否会成为下一阶段中美经贸谈判的"筹码"？今晚《夜话》邀您重点关注。 ...

10月8日，伦敦现货黄金价格首次站上4000美元整数关口，再创历史新高。 | 3967.742 | | | -0.42% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6:00 | 12:00 | 18:00 | 5:59 9:59 39 24:00 | 截至发稿时，Wind数据显示，现货黄金报4000.49美元/盎司，涨0.14%，年初至今涨幅超50%。 10月7日早些时候，COMEX黄金期货已经站上4000美元/盎司的新高位。截至7日收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.71%，报4004.80美元/盎司，日内交投区间为 3963.40-4014.60美元。 国内金饰克价突破1160元 随着国际金价走高，10月8日，国内多个金饰品牌克价再创新高，多家站上1160元/克。老庙黄金金饰价格达到1176元/克，周生生足金饰品标价达到1165元/ 克；周大福为1162元/克；老凤祥价格达到1160元/克。 1月初与4月初，国际金价接连迎来两轮迅猛上涨行情，价格从年初的2600美元/盎司快速攀升至3400美元/盎司。经历了4个月3300美元/盎司左右的横盘后，9 月2日现货黄金再次突破3500美元/盎司关口， ...

扎多尔诺夫的分析聚焦于美国近期贸易政策的整体趋势。自从唐纳德·特朗普再次担任美国总统以来， 美国的贸易政策变得更加强硬，多个国家先后成为美国加征关税的目标。首先，美国对墨西哥和加拿大 的进口商品加征关税，随后宣布计划对钢铁、铝制品以及汽车等商品加征关税，并不断扩大这一关税政 策的范围。 美国加征关税的政策逐渐升级，直到2023年4月2日发布的关税声明，被视为这一政策的巅峰。声明提 出，美国将对进口商品实施10%的基本税率，并在此基础上，根据不同国家的贸易政策和市场开放程 度，额外加征关税。美国此举的目的是强化其在双边贸易中的议价能力。 最近，俄罗斯联邦前财政部长米哈伊尔·扎多尔诺夫在接受俄新社采访时，阐述了美国对印度商品加征 进口关税的深层原因。他表示，美国此举的真正动机，并非外界普遍认为的"印度购买俄罗斯石油"问 题，而是因为印度的国内市场对美国企业来说，属于全球最封闭的市场之一。美国通过加征关税，希望 打破这一封闭局面。 对于美国此次对印度加征关税的措施，扎多尔诺夫进一步分析指出，长期以来，印度的市场在准入规 则、行业监管等方面对外国企业设立了许多障碍，导致美国企业在印度的业务拓展面临不小的困难。尽 管外 ...

0:00 / 25:04 对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院院长 屠新泉：在WTO谈判当中，中国一直是作为发展中国家成员， 和其他的发展中国家一起在谈判当中形成一个集团，共同参与谈判。在实际谈判过程当中，包括WTO 已经完成或者正在进行的一些谈判当中，我们其实是一种非常自主务实的态度去处理特殊差别待遇，并 不是一定要求特殊差别待遇。 但是这次正式的宣示，一劳永逸解决了这个问题。以往都是一事一议，根据特殊特定的谈判议题，来做 出政策的选择。从现在开始，在当前正在进行的，以及未来要开展的WTO谈判当中，一劳永逸地解决 了这个问题，我们就不再寻求和其他的发展中国家一样的特殊差别待遇，会根据自身的这个情况来做出 自己的开放承诺。 央视新闻消息，从2001年加入世贸组织开始，我国24年来首次宣布，在世贸组织当前和未来谈判中将不 寻求新的特殊和差别待遇。 为什么现在宣布不要特殊待遇？中国在整个全球贸易格局当中的角色发生了什么样深刻的变化？这对于 中国未来的经济贸易、对于全球贸易秩序未来的走向又会有什么样的影响？ 放弃特殊差别待遇 意味着什么？ 中国提出来未来放弃属于发展中国家享有的特殊和差别待遇，是不是意味着中国就从发展中 ...

"中国目前享有的发展中成员特殊和差别待遇不受影响" 中国社会科学院美国研究所副研究员杨水清24日告诉《环球时报》，中国这一宣示绝非某些舆论所曲解 的"放弃发展中国家地位"或"全面放弃权益"，而是一次精准、有限且自主的政策调整。 她解释称，首先，中国这一决策的范围限定于"当前和未来谈判"，中国的承诺明确指向"新"的谈判。这 意味着，中国在过去所有已达成并生效的WTO协定——如《农业协定》《补贴与反补贴措施协定》等 ——中所享有的所有特殊和差别待遇条款将完全保留。中国不寻求的是在尚未开始的且要求获得额外差 别化待遇的谈判中的特殊和差别待遇权利。 环球网消息，当地时间9月23日，中国国务院总理李强在出席第80届联合国大会相关活动时表示，中国 作为负责任的发展中大国，在世贸组织当前和未来谈判中，将不寻求新的特殊和差别待遇。 这一重磅表态引发世界关注。中国在世贸组织当前和未来谈判中不再寻求新的特殊和差别待遇意味着什 么？又会如何影响世贸组织改革和全球贸易格局？《环球时报》记者就此采访多名贸易领域专业人士。 "经过数十年发展，中国已成为世界第二大经济体、第一大货物贸易国，经济总量和制造业规模远超一 般发展中国家。尽管人均 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global economy is significantly influenced by the U.S. despite its lower GDP share compared to China, contributing 38% to global nominal GDP growth over the past decade, while China contributed 27% [2] - The U.S. has a younger population structure with a median age of 38, which supports long-term economic vitality [3] - Global inflation shows divergence, with CPI in developing economies nearing pre-pandemic levels, while developed economies remain elevated due to persistent service inflation [4] Trade and Economic Dynamics - The global trade landscape is shifting, with a decline in goods trade as a percentage of GDP and an increase in services trade, where the U.S. is the largest net exporter [5] - The U.S. government has utilized tariffs as a tool to address domestic issues, with effective tariff rates rising from 2% in 2024 to 15% in 2025 [8] Company Performance Metrics - U.S. companies exhibit a significantly higher Return on Equity (ROE) of 20% over the past five years, compared to 13.4% in Europe and 9% in Japan, with a focus on consumer and technology sectors [9] - Emerging markets have an overall ROE of 12.4%, which is higher than China's A-share market at 8.5% [11][12] Challenges for Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies face challenges in expanding globally due to limited market openness in developed countries and the need for stronger brand building [13] - The performance of Chinese enterprises in global markets is relatively weak, particularly in consumer products, with a low overseas revenue share compared to global MNCs [14] Market Performance and Outlook - The year 2025 is projected to be strong for equity markets, with both emerging and developed markets performing well, particularly under Republican governance [15] - The U.S. stock market outlook is positive, supported by government fiscal deficits injecting 5-6% growth into the economy and a significant interest rate cut potential from the Federal Reserve [16] Regional Economic Insights - Europe faces structural issues with a low net investment rate and an aging population, limiting its growth potential compared to the U.S. [17] - Japan's economy shows nominal growth without substantial improvement in real GDP, impacting its stock market negatively [19] Sector-Specific Trends - The technology sector is outperforming expectations, with significant capital expenditures and profits, particularly in AI and cloud computing [27] - The U.S. manufacturing sector, while declining as a GDP percentage, maintains a stable global value-added share of 16% [28] Consumer Sector Analysis - The consumer sector tends to underperform during market upswings but shows resilience during downturns, with long-term returns from major players like McDonald's being favorable [29]

Group 1: Trade Policy and Legal Implications - Trump's administration faces legal challenges regarding the legality of imposing tariffs, with a recent court ruling declaring most of these tariffs illegal [3][4][6] - The core issue revolves around whether the president exceeded his legal authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose such extensive tariffs [4][6] - If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, it could lead to significant financial repercussions, including a potential refund of over $210 billion in tariff revenues collected [6] Group 2: Economic Impact and Public Sentiment - Trade experts indicate that the costs of tariffs are primarily borne by American importers rather than foreign companies, which has led to widespread criticism of the tariff strategy [3][4] - Trump's rhetoric suggests that losing the legal battle could lead to severe economic consequences for the U.S., framing the situation as a binary choice between wealth and poverty [3][4] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies have not only affected domestic economic interests but also have broader implications for global trade dynamics [6] Group 3: Regulatory Actions Against Tech Giants - France's CNIL imposed a record fine of €325 million on Google for violating user consent regulations regarding advertising practices [10][11] - The fine stems from Google's failure to obtain user consent for targeted advertising and misleading users during account registration [10] - This penalty reflects a growing trend of stricter regulatory scrutiny on tech giants in Europe, emphasizing user rights and privacy protection [11][13] Group 4: Historical Context of Regulatory Fines - This recent fine marks the third penalty imposed on Google by CNIL for cookie-related violations, with total fines exceeding €600 million since 2019 [11][13] - The increasing frequency and severity of fines indicate a shift towards more stringent enforcement of data protection regulations in Europe [11][13] - The regulatory landscape is evolving, pushing companies to prioritize user consent and transparency in data handling practices [13]

Core Points - The trade agreement between the US and Japan, signed by Trump, significantly reduces tariffs on Japanese auto imports from 27.5% to 15% [1] - Japan commits to increasing purchases of US agricultural products and investing $550 billion in the US, although only 1%-2% of this will be direct investment [3][5] Group 1: Economic Impact - The reduction of the auto tariff is crucial for Japan, as the automotive industry is a key pillar of its economy, with over 30% of its total auto exports going to the US [5] - In 2024, Japan's auto exports to the US are projected to reach 1.37 million units, with nearly $50 billion in total export value [5] - High tariffs could lead to significant losses for Japan, with estimates of up to 3.47 trillion yen in potential losses if the 27.5% tariff remains [5] Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Japan's decision to sign the agreement, despite public backlash, is driven by the strategic importance of maintaining competitive tariff rates with other countries like the EU and South Korea [5][9] - The agreement reflects the US's strategy of reshaping trade relationships through tariff leverage, emphasizing the "America First" policy [9] - Japan's reliance on exports, particularly in the automotive sector, makes the US an indispensable market, necessitating negotiations to minimize losses [7][9]

Core Insights - The current global trade environment is characterized by rising tariff barriers and a complex landscape for Chinese companies expanding overseas, leading to significant changes in export structures and logistics demands [1][2][5] Trade Environment and Export Structure - The fluctuation of global tariffs, particularly changes in U.S. trade policies, has notably impacted the export paths and logistics choices for Chinese enterprises, with varying effects across different industries [2][3] - The e-commerce sector has seen a marked decline in exports due to the U.S. cancellation of tax exemptions for small packages valued under $800, which previously fueled rapid growth in Chinese e-commerce exports [2][3] - In contrast, emerging industries such as new energy and biopharmaceuticals are becoming new growth drivers for exports, indicating a shift in China's export structure towards heavier and more specialized goods [1][3] Logistics Demand and Service Requirements - The demand for logistics services is evolving from a price-driven approach to a service-oriented model, as companies increasingly require integrated and resilient logistics solutions to navigate complex international environments [5][6] - Companies are now focusing on "brand export," necessitating higher standards for overseas operations and local delivery, while facing challenges such as policy risks and cultural differences in emerging markets [5][6] Technological Advancements in Logistics - The logistics industry is rapidly advancing towards automation and smart technologies, with innovations such as AI, robotics, and IoT playing a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiency and competitive advantage [6] - DHL is actively investing in technology to improve warehouse operations and last-mile delivery, utilizing automated guided vehicles and AI models to better predict market demand and optimize transportation arrangements [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that most of President Trump's global tariff policies are illegal, stating that he exceeded his authority in implementing these tariffs [1][3][9]. Group 1: Court Ruling and Implications - The Appeals Court upheld a previous ruling by the International Trade Court, which found that Trump improperly invoked an emergency powers law to impose tariffs [3][8]. - The court's decision allows the tariffs to remain in effect temporarily while the case is sent back to a lower court for further review [3][6]. - The ruling could prolong uncertainty regarding the fate of Trump's tariffs, as the government has the option to appeal to the Supreme Court [3][9]. Group 2: Government Officials' Statements - Following the ruling, Trump asserted that all tariffs remain valid and criticized the court's decision as partisan [5][6]. - U.S. officials, including the Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary, expressed concerns that a ruling against the tariffs could severely damage U.S. foreign policy and lead to diplomatic embarrassment [7][8]. - They argued that invalidating the tariffs would undermine months of negotiations with countries like the EU, Japan, and South Korea [8][9]. Group 3: Broader Trade Context - The legal battle over Trump's tariffs involves trillions of dollars in global trade and could lead to demands for refunds of tariffs already paid [9][10]. - Opponents of the tariffs, including small businesses and Democratic-led states, argue that Trump misused the emergency powers law, which is typically not intended for tariff imposition [9][10]. - The tariffs, initially set at a baseline rate of 10%, were implemented to address the U.S. trade deficit and have been in effect for several months [9].