Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department has publicly stated that it will no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, marking a significant strategic shift in the U.S.-China trade war [1][3] - The trade conflict has been characterized as a no-win situation, with U.S. inflation reaching critical levels and American households facing increased costs due to tariffs, leading to a reconsideration of aggressive trade policies ahead of the midterm elections [3][4] - Despite the tariffs, China's manufacturing sector has shown remarkable resilience, with exports not collapsing but instead moving up the value chain, indicating that alternative production capacities in Southeast Asia cannot meet global demand [4][6] Group 2 - The strategic pivot by the U.S. reveals inherent contradictions in its approach to China, as the desire to contain China comes with significant costs that the U.S. is unwilling to bear [7][8] - The concept of "decoupling" from China is deemed unrealistic, as U.S. companies recognize the unmatched scale and complete supply chain that China offers, with any forced separation likely leading to inflation and supply chain disruptions [8][9] - The geopolitical landscape, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, has stretched U.S. resources thin, necessitating a more conciliatory approach towards China [12] Group 3 - The shift in tariff strategy signifies a new phase in U.S.-China relations, transitioning from hard confrontation to a competitive yet cooperative dynamic [12][13] - While competition will continue in high-tech sectors such as advanced chips and biotechnology, there are renewed opportunities for collaboration in areas like climate change and financial stability [13][15] - China's ability to navigate pressures and maintain an open stance demonstrates its capacity to rise as a major power, suggesting that the era of unilateral dominance is waning [15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main concerns this week include the escalation of Sino-US shipping friction, the weak real estate sales, the downward trend of commodity prices, the decline in most production开工率, the strong mobility in consumption, the downward trend of prices in inflation, and the upward trend of SCFI and downward trend of BDI in exports [2]. - Real estate sales were weak this week, with the new - home transaction area in 20 cities showing a significant decline both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the new - deal effect of the new policy is diminishing. The transaction area of second - hand housing also decreased significantly [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined, including steel, cement, asphalt, and glass futures. In industrial production, most开工率 decreased, while PTA开工率 increased slightly [2]. - In consumption, mobility was strong, with subway rides and domestic flights above the seasonal level, car consumption in line with the season, and movie box office below the seasonal level [2]. - In terms of inflation, pork, vegetable, and oil prices all declined [2]. - In exports, SCFI increased and BDI decreased significantly due to the escalation of Sino - US shipping friction [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: The Effect of New Policies is Diminishing - This week (October 3 - 9), the new - home transaction area in 20 cities decreased by 74.87% month - on - month and 31.63% year - on - year. The new - home transaction area in all tiers of cities turned negative month - on - month, mainly due to the holiday, and remained negative year - on - year, indicating the diminishing effect of new policies [2][7]. - For second - hand housing, the transaction area in each city decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - Investment - related commodity prices mostly declined this week. The price of rebar decreased slightly due to weak demand and anti - seasonal inventory accumulation; the cement price decreased slightly due to weak demand, over - capacity, and insufficient cost support; the asphalt price dropped as supply increased and demand was hindered by rainfall in the South; the glass futures price decreased during the inventory - building period and due to continuous rainy weather affecting enterprise shipments [2]. 3. Production: Most Operating Rates Declined - In industrial production, most operating rates declined. The operating rates of coking enterprises and polyester filament decreased slightly, the operating rate of automobile tires decreased significantly, the operating rate of steel - mill blast furnaces remained basically flat, and the PTA operating rate increased slightly [2]. 4. Consumption: Mobility was Strong - In consumption, mobility was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, car consumption was in line with the season, and movie box office was below the seasonal level [2]. 5. Exports: SCFI Increased, BDI Decreased - This week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased, while the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased significantly. The escalation of Sino - US shipping friction led to a slight increase in freight rates [2]. 6. Prices: Pork, Vegetable, and Oil Prices Declined - In terms of prices, pork, vegetable, and oil prices all declined. Vegetable prices decreased due to sufficient supply and weakening consumption demand; crude oil prices decreased as geopolitical risks eased [2].