Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance in recent months, with various companies reporting mixed revenue growth. The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by certain segments like sports and leisure apparel [3][15]. - The report highlights the impact of external factors such as tariff policies and global economic conditions on the industry's performance, particularly for companies with significant exposure to international markets [15][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Revenue Data - In June 2025, several Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported varied revenue performance, with Yu Yuan Group showing a 9.4% year-on-year increase, while Feng Tai Enterprises experienced a 3.07% decline [6][21]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 13.0% for the first half of 2025, indicating a robust demand in international markets [5][21]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 1.62% in the week of July 7-11, 2025, outperforming the broader market index [12][23]. - The SW textile manufacturing sub-sector rose by 2.25%, while the apparel and home textile sector increased by 1.71% [12][23]. 3. Valuation Metrics - As of July 11, 2025, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.53, placing it in the 30.59% percentile over the past three years. The apparel and home textile sector had a PE-TTM of 27.66, in the 98.68% percentile [30][12]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the domestic retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with online retail channels continuing to outperform traditional retail [53][55]. - The report also tracks raw material prices, indicating a slight increase in cotton prices and a decrease in gold prices as of July 11, 2025 [40][41]. 5. Industry News - The 2024 Top 100 supermarket report indicates a slight increase in sales, with a total sales scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year growth [67][68]. - Armani Group reported a 6% decline in sales for the 2024 fiscal year, highlighting challenges in the luxury goods market due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [69][70]. 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high earnings certainty for the mid-year results, recommending brands like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees for their strong market positioning and growth potential [15][13].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The real - demand for steel is weak, and steel prices are still in the process of finding a bottom [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Quantity Contradictions - Macro Policy - The 2025 government work report's GDP target is about 5%, the deficit is 4%, the inflation target is 2%, the local government special bond scale is 4.4 trillion, and the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale is 1.3 trillion. The Politburo meeting on April 28th did not issue any unexpected policies, and China will enter a policy window period. In May, the M1 - M2 scissors gap was - 5.6, and the decline continued to narrow [7] 3.2 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Supply - In March 2025, the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale was 1.3 trillion. On May 20th, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time this year. On May 15th, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points [11] 3.3 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Demand - Relevant data on new social financing scale, resident medium - and long - term loans, new RMB loans, and enterprise medium - and long - term loans are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data [13][14][15][16] 3.4 Real Estate 3.4.1 Sales - Housing prices show signs of stabilizing, and the decline in new home sales has narrowed. Rigid demand is related to population growth, urbanization rate, and resident leverage ratio. Investment demand is related to housing prices. Housing prices lead to second - hand housing sales, and second - hand housing sales lead to new home sales [17][20][22] 3.4.2 New Construction and Land Transactions - Land acquisition leads new construction by 6 months [24] 3.5 Infrastructure 3.5.1 Funds - Traditional funds include public fiscal expenditure, government - funded expenditure, and special bonds. Emerging funds involve quasi - fiscal policies, such as 700 billion yuan of the 1 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2024 being used for "two major" construction projects, and a 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special sovereign bond in March 2025 [26][27][30][31] 3.5.2 Projects - Data on the construction industry PMI and the start - up investment amount of major projects are presented [33] 3.6 Manufacturing 3.6.1 General Situation - Supported by new factors, the production and sales of major industrial products maintain high growth, but exports face shocks [34] 3.6.2 Production and Sales of Major Industrial Products - The production and sales of automobiles, white goods, excavators, and other products are presented, with specific production data and year - on - year growth rates [39][40] 3.6.3 Production Enterprises' Orders and Sales - The planned and actual production of household appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, as well as their domestic sales data, are presented [43] 3.6.4 Automobile Production and Sales - The automobile industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, with structural contradictions in production and sales by variety. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [57] 3.6.5 Machinery Production and Sales - The machinery industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, and the export proportion of sub - varieties is increasing year by year. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [65] 3.6.6 Ship Production and Sales - Shipbuilding is driven by economic growth, manufacturing capacity changes, supply - demand patterns, renewal cycles, and transportation efficiency in different periods. Currently, shipyards have sufficient orders on hand, and new orders continue to grow at a high rate [70] 3.7 Steel Direct Exports - Steel exports are adjusting passively by trading price for volume. Vietnam's anti - dumping tax has a great impact on China's steel exports to Vietnam, and the traditional price - for - volume model is affected [71][74] 3.8 Steel Demand - Steel demand is gradually peaking, and negative feedback should be vigilant. Data on spot transactions and variety price difference structures are presented [83][89][91]

Core Viewpoint - China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) reported a total new contract value of 1,841.2 billion yuan for the period from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] Contract Performance - The new contract value for construction business reached 1,710.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [1] - Breakdown of new contracts: - Residential construction contracts amounted to 1,112.0 billion yuan, showing a decline of 4.0% year-on-year [1] - Infrastructure contracts totaled 593.9 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 16.2% year-on-year [1] - Survey and design contracts were valued at 4.9 billion yuan, down 15.3% year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - Domestic new contracts were 1,632.4 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - International new contracts stood at 78.4 billion yuan, which is a decline of 19.7% year-on-year [1] Construction Activity - The total construction area for residential buildings was 1.477 billion square meters, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - New construction area reached 108 million square meters, showing a growth of 3.0% year-on-year [1] - Completed construction area was 54.97 million square meters, down 17.2% year-on-year [1] Real Estate Business - Contract sales in the real estate sector amounted to 130.4 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.0% year-on-year [1] - Contract sales area was 4.55 million square meters, down 6.4% year-on-year [1] - As of the end of the reporting period, land reserves totaled 7.625 million square meters, with new land acquisitions of 2.71 million square meters [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sales momentum is declining, while passenger car sales remain resilient; construction demand still needs improvement, and concerns over external demand are marginally easing, with an increase in China's export orders to the U.S. and a rebound in port cargo throughput and freight rates [1]. Group 1: Real Estate and Consumer Sales - Real estate sales continue to be weak, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities; first-tier cities saw a 12.4% increase, while second-tier cities experienced a 30.2% decrease, and third-tier cities had a 7.0% increase [2]. - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 30% year-on-year from May 6 to May 11, driven by national subsidy policies and promotional events [2]. - The demand for durable consumer goods, particularly automobiles, remains strong, while the film box office revenue has significantly declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][2]. Group 2: Construction and Manufacturing - The construction demand remains weak, influenced by local rainfall, with resource prices showing divergence; rebar and hot-rolled coil prices increased by 1.6% and 2.5% week-on-week, respectively [3]. - Manufacturing activity has seen a rebound, with significant increases in operating rates for the automotive sector and a 5.6% week-on-week increase in the operating rate for petroleum asphalt facilities [3]. - The prices of copper and aluminum increased by 0.9% and 2.8% week-on-week, respectively, supported by improved demand expectations due to the easing of U.S.-China tariff tensions [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to decline, with metro passenger volume in major cities showing a 4.6% increase year-on-year but a 0.3% decrease month-on-month [4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased by 2.3% week-on-week but increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while international flights saw a 4.0% decrease week-on-week but a 17.1% increase year-on-year, recovering to 81.8% of the levels seen in 2019 [4]. - The SCFI/BDI indices increased by 10.0% and 6.9% week-on-week, respectively, indicating a recovery in port cargo throughput and container volume [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in the commodity market following the Geneva joint statement between China and the U.S., driven by demand recovery expectations and supply contractions in certain products [1]. Group 1: Demand Marginal Tracking - The demand increase in the 90-day tariff suspension period is attributed to the shipment of previously delayed orders and U.S. companies' potential actions to "rush imports and transshipments" [2]. - The recent rise in U.S. shipping prices indicates an increase in orders, which will sustain strong demand in the near term [2]. - For complex goods, the delivery process may not see significant growth in demand during the tariff suspension, while shorter delivery cycle products like textiles and toys may show increased purchasing by U.S. companies [4][5]. Group 2: Profit and Supply Decision Adjustments - Short-term supply changes have a greater impact on price elasticity, with maintenance and operational issues in PX and PTA providing upward momentum for chemical products [9]. - The actual pace of production recovery is constrained by large manufacturers' maintenance plans and strategic supply adjustments, which create price support independent of demand [10]. - Despite potential for rapid production increases in the upstream supply chain, the lack of significant demand growth and previous low-profit periods may limit the willingness of leading manufacturers to increase output [13]. Group 3: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy remains a significant risk, with a potential increase in tariffs by 54% if no agreement is reached within 90 days [16]. - The U.S. fiscal issues may necessitate a focus on revenue generation and spending cuts, complicating trade negotiations and potentially leading to higher retail prices that suppress consumer demand [16]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments in response to economic conditions may also impact inflation expectations and commodity prices [17]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Precious metals may experience short-term price corrections due to tariff and geopolitical tensions but are expected to return to their roles as a store of value in the medium term [23]. - Non-ferrous metals may face short-term demand limitations due to U.S. procurement decisions during the tariff suspension, but medium-term trends will be influenced by Federal Reserve policies [23]. - The energy sector faces supply and demand pressures, with OPEC's production increases and limited demand support affecting price stability [23].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US and China issued a joint statement on the Geneva trade talks, reducing tariffs on each other's goods significantly, which is expected to benefit export-oriented companies with international supply chain advantages [2] - The company Bruker has been actively launching new products since May, enhancing its innovation capabilities and product diversity [2] Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Real Estate and Home Furnishing Industry - New home sales in 33 cities totaled 2.0064 million square meters from May 10 to May 16, showing a year-on-year decrease of 13.78% but a month-on-month increase of 30.76% [23] - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, new home sales showed varying year-on-year and month-on-month changes, with Beijing experiencing a 4.93% increase year-on-year [37] Chapter 2: Paper Industry - The average price of hardwood pulp was 4236 CNY per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% [15] Chapter 3: Textile and Apparel Industry - Domestic cotton prices as of May 16 were reported at 14577 CNY per ton, with year-on-year decreases of 9.8% [16] - E-commerce sales for major apparel brands showed varied performance, with Anta down 27.3% year-on-year [16] Chapter 4: Gold and Diamond Industry - COMEX gold closed at 3205.3 USD per ounce, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.84% [17] Chapter 5: Export Chain - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with furniture and apparel exports showing declines [18] Chapter 6: Medical Aesthetics - The report highlights the approval of several injectable medical aesthetic products, indicating growth in the sector [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights two significant economic characteristics continuing from last year: strong exports but weak consumption, and notable volume growth but weak pricing. Attention should be paid to changes in these characteristics as trade tensions escalate and more consumption-boosting measures are expected post the March Two Sessions [2][4]. Group 1: Export and Consumption - Exports are expected to remain strong, with a projected year-on-year growth of 4%-5% in January-February in USD terms. Factors supporting this include companies "rushing to export" and high-frequency data indicating strong performance [4][12]. - Consumption is anticipated to be weak, with retail sales growth expected around 3.0%, down from 3.7% in December. This is influenced by the post-Spring Festival consumption dip and a decline in automobile sales growth [5][17]. Group 2: Price Trends and Economic Growth - CPI is projected to decline to around -0.8% year-on-year in February, with PPI also expected to remain negative. This is attributed to weak food prices and a post-holiday drop in core CPI [6][9]. - GDP growth for the first quarter is estimated to be between 5.2%-5.3%, with strong performance expected in finance, industry, and information sectors [6][11]. Group 3: Investment and Financial Data - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 4.5% for January-February, driven by early-year investment activity and a rebound in construction projects [6][15]. - Financial data indicates accelerated government bond issuance, with new social financing expected to reach 3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous year [7][18].