1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, real - estate sales remained weak. The real - estate market is in a situation of stock competition, with stable prices but falling volumes in the new - home market and trading volume for price in the second - hand home market. Next year may face concentrated selling of second - hand new homes due to the "5 - year resale restriction policy" [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined. The price of rebar increased slightly, while the prices of asphalt, glass futures, and cement decreased. Most industrial production start - up rates declined, with only the start - up rate of polyester filament rising slightly [2]. - In terms of consumption, the momentum of travel was strong. Subway travel, domestic flights, and movie box - office were above the seasonal level, while automobile consumption was below the seasonal level [2]. - In terms of inflation, pork and vegetable prices declined, while oil prices rose [2]. - In terms of exports, the SCFI and BDI declined this week [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Real - Estate Sales - From November 7th to November 13th, the new - home sales area increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The new - home sales of cities at all levels were stronger than the previous period to varying degrees, but still significantly weaker than the same period last year. Among key cities, Shanghai and Hangzhou had year - on - year increases, while others mostly declined [7]. - From November 7th to November 13th, second - hand home sales increased month - on - month but declined significantly year - on - year. Among key cities, the month - on - month sales of all key cities were stronger than the previous period, and the year - on - year decline of Beijing and Hangzhou narrowed, while others widened [7]. 3.2 Investment - This week, most commodity prices declined. The price of rebar increased slightly, while the prices of asphalt, glass futures, and cement decreased [36]. 3.3 Production - This week, most start - up rates declined. The start - up rates of petroleum asphalt, steel - mill blast furnaces, and coking enterprises decreased, as did the start - up rates of automobile tires and PTA. The start - up rate of polyester filament increased slightly [44]. 3.4 Consumption - Subway travel, domestic flights, and movie box - office were above the seasonal level, while automobile sales were below the seasonal level [53]. 3.5 Exports - This week, the SCFI index, BDI index, port cargo throughput, and CRB spot index all declined [60]. 3.6 Prices - Pork and vegetable prices declined slightly, while oil and rebar prices increased slightly [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The main concerns of the week include the continuous and significant decline in asphalt prices due to reduced downstream consumption in the off - season and low international crude oil prices; the weak supply - demand pattern of steel and cement; the sharp weakening of real estate sales; and the high - level decline of SCFI with the need to follow up on the details of Sino - US trade friction mitigation [5]. - Real estate sales remained weak this week, with the new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind showing a month - on - month decrease of 28.04% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.60%. New home sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline widening [5]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined. Steel, asphalt prices decreased, cement prices were basically flat, and glass futures prices rose slightly [5]. - In industrial production, the performance of operating rates was divided. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and coking enterprises decreased, while those of steel mills' blast furnaces increased, and the operating rates of automobile tires, polyester filament, and PTA were basically stable or slightly decreased [5]. - In consumption, the momentum of travel was strong. Subway travel and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, while automobile consumption and movie box office were below the seasonal level [5]. - In terms of inflation, pork and vegetable prices increased, while oil prices decreased [5]. - In exports, SCFI decreased and BDI increased [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: New Home Year - on - Year Decline Widened Significantly - From October 31 to November 6, new home sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with the year - on - year decline widening. The new home sales area in 20 cities tracked by Wind decreased by 28.04% month - on - month and 42.60% year - on - year. New home sales in first - tier cities were significantly weaker than the previous period, while those in second, third, and fourth - tier cities were stronger. All cities' new home sales areas were significantly weaker than the same period last year [10]. - In October, new home sales decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened. The year - on - year sales in first and second - tier cities turned negative, and the new home sales areas in third and fourth - tier cities continued to decline [10]. - Among key cities, in terms of month - on - month, most key cities' new home sales increased, except for Shanghai (-4.13%). In terms of year - on - year, except for Hangzhou (-54.70%) which turned negative from positive, other key cities maintained negative growth, and all key cities' new home sales areas were weaker than the same period last year, with Shenzhen (-70.48%) showing a significant decline [10]. - In October, among key cities, except for Shenzhen (1.00%) and Suzhou (19.29%), new home sales were significantly weaker than the previous period month - on - month. In terms of year - on - year, except for Hangzhou (-2.25%), other key cities' new home sales areas were significantly weaker than the same period last year [10]. - Second - hand home sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Among key cities, in terms of month - on - month, except for Shenzhen (-1.22%), other key cities' second - hand home sales areas were significantly weaker than the previous period. In terms of year - on - year, except for Shanghai (-8.49%) where the decline narrowed, other key cities' second - hand home sales areas decreased compared to the same period last year [11]. - In October, second - hand home sales weakened. In terms of month - on - month, except for Hangzhou (-4.52%) where the decline slightly narrowed, other key cities turned negative from positive, and second - hand home sales were significantly weaker than the previous period. In terms of year - on - year, all key cities turned negative, and second - hand home sales areas were significantly weaker than the same period last year [11] 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - In investment, most commodity prices declined this week. Steel and asphalt prices decreased, cement prices were basically flat, and glass futures prices rose slightly [40] 3. Production: Operating Rates Showed Differentiated Performance - In production, the performance of operating rates was divided this week. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and coking enterprises decreased, while those of steel mills' blast furnaces increased, and the operating rates of automobile tires, polyester filament, and PTA were basically stable or slightly decreased [49] 4. Consumption: Strong Travel Momentum - In consumption, subway travel and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, while automobile sales and movie box office were below the seasonal level [64] 5. Exports: SCFI Decreased, BDI Increased - In exports, the SCFI index decreased, the BDI index increased, and the CRB spot index decreased slightly this week [69] 6. Prices: Pork and Vegetable Prices Increased, Oil Prices Decreased - In terms of prices, pork and vegetable prices increased, while oil and steel prices decreased [72]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - In October, limited consumption is expected to rebound, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for limited goods consumption, up from 3.77% in September[2] - The average growth rate for limited goods consumption (excluding catering) is forecasted to be 2.7% in 2023, 3.55% in 2024, and 4.24% in the first three quarters of 2025[3] - The contribution of limited goods consumption (excluding catering) to total retail sales is significant, accounting for 52.2% in 2024[3] Group 2: Price Trends - CPI is expected to show a slight year-on-year decline of around -0.1% in October, with a month-on-month change of approximately 0%[4] - PPI is projected to decrease by -0.2% month-on-month and slightly worsen to -2.4% year-on-year in October[4] Group 3: Production and Trade - Industrial production growth is anticipated to slow to about 5.5% in October[5] - Export growth is expected to decline to around 3.5% year-on-year in October, while imports are projected to grow by 1%[5][13] Group 4: Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment growth is forecasted to drop to -0.8% for the period from January to October, with real estate investment down by -14.5%[5][17] - Real estate sales area growth is expected to be around -15% in October, with major developers experiencing a 41.9% year-on-year decrease in sales[5][18] Group 5: Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to reach 1.1 trillion yuan in October, a decrease of 200 billion yuan compared to the previous year[6][24] - M2 growth is projected to be around 8.4% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to be approximately 6%[6][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the SCFI continued to rise. The container shipping bookings from China to the US have recovered to last year's level, and the US's restrictive measures may trigger a "rush to export" effect. Sino-US trade relations may see a turnaround. [2] - Real estate sales remained weak. New home sales were far below the seasonal level, while second-hand home sales were basically in line with the seasonality. [2] - Rebar and cement prices remained stable. In the short term, coking coal and coke performed well, supporting the steel price, but in the long term, it was limited by the weak supply-demand pattern. [2] - In terms of investment and production, commodity prices showed mixed trends. Rebar prices were flat, glass futures prices decreased, asphalt prices increased, and cement prices were basically unchanged. [2] - In industrial production, the operating rates were differentiated. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills, PTA operating rate, and automobile tire operating rate increased, while the petroleum asphalt operating rate and coking enterprise operating rate decreased, and the polyester filament operating rate remained basically unchanged. [2] - In consumption, the mobility was strong. Subway ridership and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, automobile consumption was in line with the seasonality, and movie box office was below the seasonal level. [2] - In terms of inflation, pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased, and oil prices increased. [2] - In exports, the SCFI increased, and the BDI decreased. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: Weak Real Estate Sales, Beijing Provides Support - New home sales this week (October 17 - October 23) increased slightly month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow. The new home sales area in Wind 20 cities increased by 2.83% month-on-month and decreased by 13.03% year-on-year. [7] - New home sales in first-tier and third/fourth-tier cities were significantly stronger than the previous period but weaker than the same period last year. Second-tier cities saw negative growth both month-on-month and year-on-year. [7] - In key cities, most cities saw an increase in new home sales month-on-month. Beijing was the only city with positive year-on-year growth. [7] - Second-hand home sales decreased slightly month-on-month and significantly year-on-year. All key cities saw a decline in second-hand home sales compared to the same period last year. [7] 2. Investment: Commodity Prices Show Mixed Trends - Commodity prices showed mixed trends this week. Rebar and cement prices were basically flat, glass futures prices decreased, and asphalt prices increased. [36] 3. Production: Operating Rates Show Differentiation - Operating rates showed differentiation this week. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills, PTA operating rate, and automobile tire operating rate increased, while the petroleum asphalt operating rate and coking enterprise operating rate decreased, and the polyester filament operating rate remained basically unchanged. [45] 4. Consumption: Strong Mobility - Subway ridership and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, automobile sales were in line with the seasonality, and movie box office was below the seasonal level. [58] 5. Exports: SCFI Increases, BDI Decreases - The SCFI index increased this week, while the BDI index and CRB spot index decreased slightly. [61] 6. Prices: Pork Prices Decrease, Vegetable and Oil Prices Increase - Pork prices decreased, vegetable prices increased, oil prices increased, and rebar prices were basically flat. [65]

Group 1 - The travel market showed a rebound in demand during the holiday period, with a total of 8.88 billion domestic trips made during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, an increase of 1.23 billion trips compared to the previous year [1][7] - Consumer spending remained stable, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption. Retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while daily sales in consumption-related industries grew by 4.5% [1][8] - Power generation increased significantly in early October, with coal-fired power plants reporting a 9.1% year-on-year increase in output, contrasting with a 12.6% decline in September [1][10] Group 2 - Industrial operating rates showed mixed results, with PVC operating rates continuing to rise by 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [2][11] - Steel production experienced a slight negative growth of 0.83% year-on-year, with rebar production decreasing by 15.0% year-on-year [2][12] - The asphalt operating rate increased slightly, reaching 35.2% in mid-October, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, likely due to the acceleration of major projects [3][14] Group 3 - Real estate sales remained weak, with a 25.8% year-on-year decline in average daily transactions in major cities during the first half of October [3][15] - Passenger vehicle retail sales fell by 8% year-on-year in early October, influenced by a high base effect from the previous month [4][17] - Home appliance sales continued to decline, with offline sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines dropping significantly [4][18] Group 4 - Port container throughput remained relatively strong, with a 7.6% year-on-year increase in container throughput from September 29 to October 12 [4][19] - Industrial product prices remained stable, while consumer product prices showed divergence, with energy prices declining and some consumer goods experiencing price drops [4][22] - The first half of October highlighted active holiday travel and service consumption, while real estate sales continued to be weak [4][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main concerns this week include the escalation of Sino-US shipping friction, the weak real estate sales, the downward trend of commodity prices, the decline in most production开工率, the strong mobility in consumption, the downward trend of prices in inflation, and the upward trend of SCFI and downward trend of BDI in exports [2]. - Real estate sales were weak this week, with the new - home transaction area in 20 cities showing a significant decline both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the new - deal effect of the new policy is diminishing. The transaction area of second - hand housing also decreased significantly [2]. - In terms of investment and production, most commodity prices declined, including steel, cement, asphalt, and glass futures. In industrial production, most开工率 decreased, while PTA开工率 increased slightly [2]. - In consumption, mobility was strong, with subway rides and domestic flights above the seasonal level, car consumption in line with the season, and movie box office below the seasonal level [2]. - In terms of inflation, pork, vegetable, and oil prices all declined [2]. - In exports, SCFI increased and BDI decreased significantly due to the escalation of Sino - US shipping friction [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Real Estate Sales: The Effect of New Policies is Diminishing - This week (October 3 - 9), the new - home transaction area in 20 cities decreased by 74.87% month - on - month and 31.63% year - on - year. The new - home transaction area in all tiers of cities turned negative month - on - month, mainly due to the holiday, and remained negative year - on - year, indicating the diminishing effect of new policies [2][7]. - For second - hand housing, the transaction area in each city decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. 2. Investment: Most Commodity Prices Declined - Investment - related commodity prices mostly declined this week. The price of rebar decreased slightly due to weak demand and anti - seasonal inventory accumulation; the cement price decreased slightly due to weak demand, over - capacity, and insufficient cost support; the asphalt price dropped as supply increased and demand was hindered by rainfall in the South; the glass futures price decreased during the inventory - building period and due to continuous rainy weather affecting enterprise shipments [2]. 3. Production: Most Operating Rates Declined - In industrial production, most operating rates declined. The operating rates of coking enterprises and polyester filament decreased slightly, the operating rate of automobile tires decreased significantly, the operating rate of steel - mill blast furnaces remained basically flat, and the PTA operating rate increased slightly [2]. 4. Consumption: Mobility was Strong - In consumption, mobility was strong. Subway rides and domestic flights were above the seasonal level, car consumption was in line with the season, and movie box office was below the seasonal level [2]. 5. Exports: SCFI Increased, BDI Decreased - This week, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased, while the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased significantly. The escalation of Sino - US shipping friction led to a slight increase in freight rates [2]. 6. Prices: Pork, Vegetable, and Oil Prices Declined - In terms of prices, pork, vegetable, and oil prices all declined. Vegetable prices decreased due to sufficient supply and weakening consumption demand; crude oil prices decreased as geopolitical risks eased [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown mixed performance in recent months, with a slight increase in textile exports but a decline in clothing exports. Specifically, from January to August 2025, China's textile yarn, fabric, and products exports increased by 1.6%, while clothing and accessories exports decreased by 1.7% [2][18]. - Major Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported a decline in revenue for August 2025, with significant year-on-year decreases for companies like Yuanyuan Group and Laiyixing, while some companies like Laiyixing still showed growth in the first eight months of the year [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Observations - Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported a general decline in revenue for August 2025, with Yuanyuan Group's revenue down by 9.7% year-on-year, and Laiyixing down by 23.11% [19][20]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector rose by 0.67% this week, lagging behind the SW light industry sector, which increased by 1.88% [20][21]. - The PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing is 22.05 times, while for SW apparel and home textiles, it is 30.57 times, indicating varying levels of valuation across sub-sectors [24]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - From January to August 2025, China's textile and apparel exports totaled $945.13 billion and $1,027.61 billion, respectively, with a slight increase in textile exports and a decrease in clothing exports [48]. - The domestic retail sales in July 2025 reached 3.88 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [55]. 4. Industry News - Stone Island opened a new flagship store in Hangzhou, showcasing its commitment to innovation and sustainability [67][68]. - Jiangnan Buyi Group reported a 4.6% increase in revenue for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, driven by online sales growth and an expansion of its offline store network [70][71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance in recent months, with various companies reporting mixed revenue growth. The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, driven by certain segments like sports and leisure apparel [3][15]. - The report highlights the impact of external factors such as tariff policies and global economic conditions on the industry's performance, particularly for companies with significant exposure to international markets [15][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Revenue Data - In June 2025, several Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported varied revenue performance, with Yu Yuan Group showing a 9.4% year-on-year increase, while Feng Tai Enterprises experienced a 3.07% decline [6][21]. - Vietnam's textile and apparel exports showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 13.0% for the first half of 2025, indicating a robust demand in international markets [5][21]. 2. Market Performance - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 1.62% in the week of July 7-11, 2025, outperforming the broader market index [12][23]. - The SW textile manufacturing sub-sector rose by 2.25%, while the apparel and home textile sector increased by 1.71% [12][23]. 3. Valuation Metrics - As of July 11, 2025, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.53, placing it in the 30.59% percentile over the past three years. The apparel and home textile sector had a PE-TTM of 27.66, in the 98.68% percentile [30][12]. 4. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the domestic retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with online retail channels continuing to outperform traditional retail [53][55]. - The report also tracks raw material prices, indicating a slight increase in cotton prices and a decrease in gold prices as of July 11, 2025 [40][41]. 5. Industry News - The 2024 Top 100 supermarket report indicates a slight increase in sales, with a total sales scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year growth [67][68]. - Armani Group reported a 6% decline in sales for the 2024 fiscal year, highlighting challenges in the luxury goods market due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [69][70]. 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high earnings certainty for the mid-year results, recommending brands like Anta Sports and 361 Degrees for their strong market positioning and growth potential [15][13].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The real - demand for steel is weak, and steel prices are still in the process of finding a bottom [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Quantity Contradictions - Macro Policy - The 2025 government work report's GDP target is about 5%, the deficit is 4%, the inflation target is 2%, the local government special bond scale is 4.4 trillion, and the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale is 1.3 trillion. The Politburo meeting on April 28th did not issue any unexpected policies, and China will enter a policy window period. In May, the M1 - M2 scissors gap was - 5.6, and the decline continued to narrow [7] 3.2 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Supply - In March 2025, the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale was 1.3 trillion. On May 20th, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time this year. On May 15th, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points [11] 3.3 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Demand - Relevant data on new social financing scale, resident medium - and long - term loans, new RMB loans, and enterprise medium - and long - term loans are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data [13][14][15][16] 3.4 Real Estate 3.4.1 Sales - Housing prices show signs of stabilizing, and the decline in new home sales has narrowed. Rigid demand is related to population growth, urbanization rate, and resident leverage ratio. Investment demand is related to housing prices. Housing prices lead to second - hand housing sales, and second - hand housing sales lead to new home sales [17][20][22] 3.4.2 New Construction and Land Transactions - Land acquisition leads new construction by 6 months [24] 3.5 Infrastructure 3.5.1 Funds - Traditional funds include public fiscal expenditure, government - funded expenditure, and special bonds. Emerging funds involve quasi - fiscal policies, such as 700 billion yuan of the 1 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2024 being used for "two major" construction projects, and a 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special sovereign bond in March 2025 [26][27][30][31] 3.5.2 Projects - Data on the construction industry PMI and the start - up investment amount of major projects are presented [33] 3.6 Manufacturing 3.6.1 General Situation - Supported by new factors, the production and sales of major industrial products maintain high growth, but exports face shocks [34] 3.6.2 Production and Sales of Major Industrial Products - The production and sales of automobiles, white goods, excavators, and other products are presented, with specific production data and year - on - year growth rates [39][40] 3.6.3 Production Enterprises' Orders and Sales - The planned and actual production of household appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, as well as their domestic sales data, are presented [43] 3.6.4 Automobile Production and Sales - The automobile industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, with structural contradictions in production and sales by variety. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [57] 3.6.5 Machinery Production and Sales - The machinery industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, and the export proportion of sub - varieties is increasing year by year. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [65] 3.6.6 Ship Production and Sales - Shipbuilding is driven by economic growth, manufacturing capacity changes, supply - demand patterns, renewal cycles, and transportation efficiency in different periods. Currently, shipyards have sufficient orders on hand, and new orders continue to grow at a high rate [70] 3.7 Steel Direct Exports - Steel exports are adjusting passively by trading price for volume. Vietnam's anti - dumping tax has a great impact on China's steel exports to Vietnam, and the traditional price - for - volume model is affected [71][74] 3.8 Steel Demand - Steel demand is gradually peaking, and negative feedback should be vigilant. Data on spot transactions and variety price difference structures are presented [83][89][91]

Core Viewpoint - China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) reported a total new contract value of 1,841.2 billion yuan for the period from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] Contract Performance - The new contract value for construction business reached 1,710.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [1] - Breakdown of new contracts: - Residential construction contracts amounted to 1,112.0 billion yuan, showing a decline of 4.0% year-on-year [1] - Infrastructure contracts totaled 593.9 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 16.2% year-on-year [1] - Survey and design contracts were valued at 4.9 billion yuan, down 15.3% year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - Domestic new contracts were 1,632.4 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [1] - International new contracts stood at 78.4 billion yuan, which is a decline of 19.7% year-on-year [1] Construction Activity - The total construction area for residential buildings was 1.477 billion square meters, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - New construction area reached 108 million square meters, showing a growth of 3.0% year-on-year [1] - Completed construction area was 54.97 million square meters, down 17.2% year-on-year [1] Real Estate Business - Contract sales in the real estate sector amounted to 130.4 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.0% year-on-year [1] - Contract sales area was 4.55 million square meters, down 6.4% year-on-year [1] - As of the end of the reporting period, land reserves totaled 7.625 million square meters, with new land acquisitions of 2.71 million square meters [1]