Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market is currently exhibiting a strong trend due to multiple macroeconomic and fundamental factors, with optimistic expectations for the future driven by policy guidance and improved market sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent statements in the "14th Five-Year Plan" regarding the governance of "involution" and "disorderly competition" have increased attention on the coal industry, significantly boosting industry sentiment [1]. - The easing of the Sino-U.S. trade situation has provided strong support for black commodities, including coking coal, which is a key product in this category [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply of coking coal remains tight, particularly in major production areas like Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, due to increased safety and environmental inspections and some mines undergoing relocation [1]. - Coking coal production last week was reported at 1.9933 million tons, a decrease of nearly 60,000 tons from the peak in October, while the capacity utilization rate of 314 washing plants dropped to 36.46% [1][2]. - The total inventory of coking coal is characterized by "upstream depletion and slight accumulation downstream," with upstream coal mine inventories decreasing to 4.3161 million tons [3]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Despite short-term fluctuations, overall demand remains stable, with downstream coking plants initiating a third round of price increases for coking coal, indicating strong procurement demand [2]. - Daily average pig iron production has decreased to 2.3636 million tons, but demand from steel mills is expected to remain stable following the lifting of emergency responses in Tangshan [2]. Group 4: Price Movements - Coking coal prices in production areas are on the rise, with prices for lean coking coal in the Changzhi market reaching 1,270 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 80 yuan per ton in October [2]. - The overall inventory structure, with moderate increases in downstream inventories, supports the market, indicating good demand for coking coal [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The coking coal futures market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, supported by macroeconomic recovery and tight supply dynamics [4]. - However, if there are no new fundamental positive stimuli or policy support, the upward momentum may weaken after prices reach equilibrium [4]. - Investors should closely monitor actual recovery in pig iron production, supply release in major production areas, and changes in imported coal volumes, as these factors will directly influence the future direction of the coking coal futures market [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly corrected, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. Due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year, and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite from the capital side, Treasury bond futures corrected in the short term [5]. - The market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is limited, so the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, with an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low, and the 7 - month LPR remains unchanged, so the upward space for Treasury bond futures in the short term is also limited [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On July 23, 2025, Treasury bond futures oscillated with a slight pullback, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and rebounding throughout the day. Recently, the China-US economic and trade situation has tended to ease. Coupled with the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite in the capital market, Treasury bond futures have had a short - term pullback. However, the current market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is relatively limited, which means the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also limited. On the other hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, and the LPR remained unchanged in July. In the short term, the upward space for Treasury bond futures is also relatively limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News - On July 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, the same as before. Since 520.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured on this day, the net withdrawal of funds on the day was 369.6 billion yuan [4]