（原标题：加纳税收潜力远未发挥） 据"乐在线"11月16日报道，国际货币基金组织称加纳在撒哈拉以南非洲地区的税收潜力未得到充分 发挥，远低于其应有的水平。 在撒哈拉以南非洲约三分之一的国家中，税收缺口超过国内生产总值的5个百分点。各国税收潜力 估算值的差异反映了经济发展水平、非正规经济程度、贸易开放程度、公共部门效率和腐败程度的差 异。此外，该地区估计的税收潜力（可行税收表现的上限）本就远低于世界其他地区，凸显出长期的结 构性制约。在此背景下，削减成本高昂且目标不明确的税收支出，并加强征税表现和提高整体税收系统 的效率，有助于缩小税收缺口。 鉴于外部融资选择日益减少，建立宏观经济韧性和满足发展需求的紧迫性日益增强，撒哈拉以南非 洲国家需要向内寻求税收政策中尚未充分探索的领域。 ...

Core Insights - The UAE's non-oil activities continue to show strong resilience, with stable overall production growth [1] - The PMI for the UAE rebounded to 53.3 in August after dropping to a four-year low of 52.9 in July, indicating improved economic conditions [1] - Fitch Ratings confirmed the UAE's sovereign credit rating at "AA-" with a stable outlook, reflecting the strength of sovereign assets and enhancing investor confidence [1] Economic Performance - Non-oil trade in the UAE saw a robust performance, with foreign trade growth of 24% in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing global trade growth of 1.8% [1] - The tourism sector is identified as a key growth driver, with Dubai welcoming nearly 10 million visitors in the first six months of the year [1] - The performance aligns with the UAE's "D33" economic agenda, aimed at positioning Dubai as a leading global destination and contributing to fiscal revenue and overall macroeconomic stability [1] Global Oil Market Outlook - The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at approximately 130 million barrels per day, unchanged year-on-year [1] - Oil demand in OECD countries is expected to grow by about 0.1 million barrels per day by 2025, while non-OECD demand is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 million barrels per day [1] - Transportation fuels, including gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel, are expected to be the main drivers of demand growth over the next two years, followed by liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha used in the petrochemical industry [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is that they will be in a state of shock consolidation in the short - term. The short - term view for TL2509 is shock, with an intraday view of shock - weakening, and the mid - term view is shock. For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is shock - weakening, the mid - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the variety TL2509, the short - term view is shock, the mid - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weakening, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - Yesterday, all Treasury bond futures rebounded with shocks. Due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of market interest rates is limited, providing support for Treasury bond futures. The latest PMI data shows that the macro - economy has some resilience but still needs policy support, and the future monetary policy environment is generally loose. In the short term, there is no need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the focus is on structural easing to support technology and boost consumption. Recently, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas has been rising, greatly reducing the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate, and there is still room for an interest rate cut in the future. However, from the perspective of the capital side, the risk appetite in the stock market is strong, which has a siphoning effect on funds, suppressing the demand for bond purchases. Therefore, the rebound space of Treasury bond futures is limited [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower. Although the medium - and long - term monetary policy is supportive and the possibility of a policy rate increase is low, the macro - economy shows strong resilience, external risk factors have temporarily eased, and the central bank has introduced a loan interest subsidy policy for the consumption sector, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. Recently, the risk appetite in the stock market has been rising, funds have shifted from bonds to stocks, and the demand for buying treasury bonds in the capital market has been suppressed. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On August 14, the central bank announced that on August 15, 2025, it would conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 6 - month (182 - day) term through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [5] - On August 15, the central bank conducted a 238 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate through a quantity tender, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, the same as before. Since 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured today, the net investment on the day was 116 billion yuan [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties of financial futures (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly corrected, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. Due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year, and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite from the capital side, Treasury bond futures corrected in the short term [5]. - The market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is limited, so the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and a loose monetary environment is needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, with an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low, and the 7 - month LPR remains unchanged, so the upward space for Treasury bond futures in the short term is also limited [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On July 23, 2025, Treasury bond futures oscillated with a slight pullback, showing a trend of hitting the bottom and rebounding throughout the day. Recently, the China-US economic and trade situation has tended to ease. Coupled with the strong resilience of China's macro - economy in the first half of the year and the continuous increase in the stock market's risk appetite in the capital market, Treasury bond futures have had a short - term pullback. However, the current market interest rate has risen to near the policy rate, and the room for further increase is relatively limited, which means the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also limited. On the other hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. A relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, and the LPR remained unchanged in July. In the short term, the upward space for Treasury bond futures is also relatively limited. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News - On July 23, the People's Bank of China conducted 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, the same as before. Since 520.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases matured on this day, the net withdrawal of funds on the day was 369.6 billion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and key metrics of the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises ETF Fund, indicating a net asset value increase and a competitive ranking among similar funds [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of Q2 2025, the fund's latest scale is 7.942 billion yuan, with a quarterly net value increase of 3.55% [1][2]. - Over the past year, the fund's net value increased by 26.5%, ranking 1421 out of 2903 similar funds, while the median increase for similar funds was 25.63% [1][2]. - The fund's maximum drawdown over the past year was -16.59%, and since inception, it has experienced a maximum drawdown of -30.96% [1]. Fund Size and Asset Allocation - The fund's size increased by 447 million yuan from the previous period, reflecting a 5.96% quarter-on-quarter change [2]. - The current asset allocation shows that 98.71% of the net value is in stocks, with no bond assets and 1.28% in cash [2]. Top Holdings - The top ten stock positions account for 44.77% of the fund, with China Pacific Insurance (601601) being the largest holding at 8.33% [2][3]. - Other significant holdings include Shanghai Airport (5.74%) and Shanghai Electric (3.91%), with various adjustments in positions compared to the previous quarter [3]. Fund Management - The current fund manager, Wu Zhenxiang, has been in charge since July 28, 2016, with a cumulative return of -2.37% during his tenure [3]. - The fund manager oversees 23 other fund products, with the best-performing fund this quarter being Huatai-PineBridge CSI 2000 Index Enhanced A, which saw a net value increase of 11.28% [3]. Economic Context - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.3% in Q2 2025, with small-cap and value styles outperforming large-cap and growth styles [5]. - Domestic macroeconomic resilience is highlighted, particularly in the consumption sector, with retail sales growing by 6.4% year-on-year in May 2025, the highest since 2024 [5]. - Fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments showing strong growth, while real estate investment continued to decline [5]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that despite potential external demand slowdowns and pressures in the real estate market, domestic demand expansion and supportive policies provide a solid foundation for economic development [5]. - The CSI Shanghai State-Owned Enterprises Index represents listed state-owned enterprises in Shanghai, and the ETF serves as a quality tool for investors to allocate to these assets [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's assets are increasingly attractive to foreign investors due to the resilience demonstrated in the macroeconomic environment amid global market volatility [1] - In the first half of the year, major global capital markets experienced significant fluctuations, but Chinese assets showed strong resilience, with the three major Hong Kong stock indices ranking among the top ten in terms of cumulative gains [1] - Foreign institutions' mid-term outlook for 2025 indicates that resilience is expected to remain the key characteristic of China's macroeconomy in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - Consumer and export performance has exceeded expectations, contributing to a favorable macroeconomic environment [1] - The increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets is anticipated as the macroeconomic conditions improve [1]

截至目前（4月21日），LPR已经连续6个月"原地踏步"。展望后期，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青预 计，综合当前外部经贸环境变化，国内房地产市场和物价走势，二季度"择机降准降息"时机或已成熟。 短期政策利率可能调降30个基点，降幅与去年全年相当，进而带动LPR报价下行，引导企业和居民贷款 利率下调，较大幅度降低实体经济融资成本。这是当前促消费、扩投资，大力提振内需，对冲潜在外需 放缓，切实增强宏观经济韧性的有效措施之一。（证券日报） ...