我们认为，亚洲目前的宏观经济环境为信贷表现提供了利好支撑。大多数亚洲国家保持着相对较低 的通胀水平，这为各国央行放松货币政策提供了更大的灵活性。此外，亚洲地区主权债务处于健康水 平，财政刺激措施仍有发挥空间，可进一步支持经济稳定。 主要的亚洲主权和投资级公司发行人的信贷基本面持续改善。自2022年以来，主要评级机构的评级 上调/下调比率呈现积极趋势，反映出亚洲信贷市场的资产负债表更为强劲，财政管理更为严格，信贷 质量也有所提高。 最近几个月，亚洲美元债券市场的新发行受到抑制，投资者面临的供应风险有所降低。与此同时， 本地市场投资者对高质量债券的需求依然强劲。新增供应受限而市场需求强劲，这为整个亚洲债券市场 提供了坚实的技术面支撑。 债券投资的关键考虑因素之一是久期风险，用以衡量债券或债券投资组合对利率变化的敏感程度。 与长期债券相比，短期债券对利率波动的敏感性较低，所以更有机会为投资者提供相对更低的波动性和 相对更稳定的表现，在利率大幅波动的环境下更加如此。历史数据也表明，短期债券通常具有更低的年 化波动率、提供更稳定的回报。 亚洲短期债券的收益优势 由于短期债券的收益率与短期利率或无风险利率更为接近，短期债 ...

Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]