Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel market shows weak supply and demand. After the military parade, production will resume, but demand remains weak, suppressing prices. Steel futures valuation has been restored to a neutral range, and downstream buyers can consider selective hedging [2]. - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, with prices under pressure. Although the "anti - involution" policy provides long - term support, current supply is increasing, and demand may be weak, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [2]. - Coking coal and coke prices are weak. Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is also under pressure. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts for coke in September. However, due to factors such as the upcoming National Day and winter storage, and the "anti - involution" policy, the downward space may be limited [4]. - Iron ore prices are in a shock range. Although iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, the pre - National Day restocking demand provides some support. The 01 contract still has effective support at the bottom [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 4, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%); HC2605 closed at 3325 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.27%); J2605 closed at 1677.5 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan (- 1.06%); JM2605 closed at 1149.5 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 1.29%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.06%); HC2601 closed at 3313 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan (0.24%); J2601 closed at 1581.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 1.37%); JM2601 closed at 1094.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 1.97%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads on September 4 were: RB2601 - 2605 was - 50 yuan/ton, HC2601 - 2605 was - 12 yuan/ton, J2601 - 2605 was - 96 yuan/ton, JM2601 - 2605 was - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit on September 4: the coil - to - rebar spread was 196 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.44, the rebar futures profit was - 37.48 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 125.82 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On September 4, the spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rebar were 3210 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 105.1 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coils were 3370 yuan/ton, 3420 yuan/ton, and 3360 yuan/ton respectively; the billet - to - product spread was 250 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 777 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Super Special Powder at Qingdao Port, etc. were 670 yuan/ton, 715 yuan/ton, etc.; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1180 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1530 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/ton [1]. - On September 4, the basis of HC, RB, J, and JM main contracts were 57 yuan/ton, 93 yuan/ton, 98.66 yuan/ton, and 115.5 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, adopt a wait - and - see approach on a single - side basis and use futures or options for hedging at appropriate times [2][6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, short on rallies [6]. - For coking coal and coke, gradually take profit on previous short positions and consider batch - wise layout of medium - term long positions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 saw an initial price increase, indicating market interest despite current weak demand conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, the main contract AD2511 opened at 19,400 CNY/ton and closed at 19,190 CNY/ton, up 825 CNY/ton or 4.49% from the benchmark price [1]. - A total of 7 contracts were listed, with a trading volume of 57,300 lots and a transaction value of 11.011 billion CNY [1]. - The average cost of aluminum alloy was reported at 20,086 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of -486 CNY/ton as of the week ending June 5 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum alloy market is currently in a consumption off-season, with both supply and demand showing weakness [2]. - Production rates have decreased, leading to a significant drop in imports, while downstream consumption, particularly in the automotive sector, is also declining [2]. - Social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has been increasing for three consecutive weeks, with a total increase of nearly 30,000 tons since early May [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Structure - Current spot prices for casting aluminum alloy are influenced by various pricing platforms, with Jiangxi Baotai often offering lower prices [3]. - The market is expected to see a division in the supply of ADC12, with high-quality aluminum water primarily supplied to major manufacturers and lower-quality products circulating in the market [3]. - The cost of recycled aluminum is under pressure from tight supply and stable aluminum prices, while the spot price of ADC12 is gradually decreasing, indicating challenges in passing on cost pressures during the off-season [2][3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - The main participants in the futures market are expected to be alloy ingot producers and downstream secondary component suppliers, with major manufacturers participating less due to their established pricing mechanisms [4]. - The AD2511 contract is anticipated to experience significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and the influence of raw aluminum prices [4]. - Producers are advised to focus on selling hedges, while downstream companies should consider purchasing spot aluminum to mitigate risks during the off-season [4].