and and and and and the may be the mail of the mail 023-0 ■ 焦煤基差(右轴) 天津港:库提价:主焦煤(蒙古,A10%,V27%,0. 7%S 期待收盘价(活跃合约):佳煤 800 2000 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 1000 -200 2024-01 焦炭基差(右轴) 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级治金焦(A13. 期货收益价(活跃合约 1500 铁 是美(石翔 | | | | | | | | Extern Expirition Production Comments of Children Comments of Children Comment | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/05 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 执业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 saw an initial price increase, indicating market interest despite current weak demand conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, the main contract AD2511 opened at 19,400 CNY/ton and closed at 19,190 CNY/ton, up 825 CNY/ton or 4.49% from the benchmark price [1]. - A total of 7 contracts were listed, with a trading volume of 57,300 lots and a transaction value of 11.011 billion CNY [1]. - The average cost of aluminum alloy was reported at 20,086 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of -486 CNY/ton as of the week ending June 5 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum alloy market is currently in a consumption off-season, with both supply and demand showing weakness [2]. - Production rates have decreased, leading to a significant drop in imports, while downstream consumption, particularly in the automotive sector, is also declining [2]. - Social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has been increasing for three consecutive weeks, with a total increase of nearly 30,000 tons since early May [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Structure - Current spot prices for casting aluminum alloy are influenced by various pricing platforms, with Jiangxi Baotai often offering lower prices [3]. - The market is expected to see a division in the supply of ADC12, with high-quality aluminum water primarily supplied to major manufacturers and lower-quality products circulating in the market [3]. - The cost of recycled aluminum is under pressure from tight supply and stable aluminum prices, while the spot price of ADC12 is gradually decreasing, indicating challenges in passing on cost pressures during the off-season [2][3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - The main participants in the futures market are expected to be alloy ingot producers and downstream secondary component suppliers, with major manufacturers participating less due to their established pricing mechanisms [4]. - The AD2511 contract is anticipated to experience significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and the influence of raw aluminum prices [4]. - Producers are advised to focus on selling hedges, while downstream companies should consider purchasing spot aluminum to mitigate risks during the off-season [4].