交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | 8万吨 . ， | 环比有所增加1 15% . | 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为7 | 9万吨 . ， | 环比减少1 25% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | | 硅库存为24 . | 9万吨 处于高位 ， ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 ， | 组件盈利 ； ...

截至6月30日，永茂泰股东户数2.40万，较上期增加14.22%；人均流通股13762股，较上期减少12.45%。 2025年1月-6月，永茂泰实现营业收入26.19亿元，同比增长51.66%；归母净利润1976.96万元，同比减少 44.27%。 分红方面，永茂泰A股上市后累计派现9130.00万元。近三年，累计派现2926.00万元。 融券方面，永茂泰8月26日融券偿还0.00股，融券卖出0.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额0.00元；融 券余量0.00股，融券余额0.00元，超过近一年70%分位水平，处于较高位。 资料显示，上海永茂泰汽车科技股份有限公司位于上海市青浦区练塘镇章练塘路577号，成立日期2002 年8月12日，上市日期2021年3月8日，公司主营业务涉及从事汽车用铝合金和汽车用铝合金零部件的研 发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：铝合金液41.92%，铝合金锭33.42%，汽车零部件22.98%，铝 合金加工0.97%，其他0.71%。 8月26日，永茂泰涨2.85%，成交额2.85亿元。两融数据显示，当日永茂泰获融资买入额3261.90万元， 融资偿还2529.67万元，融资净买入73 ...

工业硅期货早报 2025年8月22日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为8 7万吨 . ， | 环比有所增加3 . | 57% 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 环比增长2 ， | 56% . . | 需求有所抬升 . | 多晶硅 | | | | | | | | 库存为24 9万吨 . ， | | 处于高位 硅片亏损 电池片亏损 ， ， | 组件盈利 ， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has risen, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 8195 - 8585 for the 2511 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule will increase in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The overall demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 50370 - 53380 for the 2511 contract [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, a 3.57% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase compared to the previous week, and the demand has increased, especially in polysilicon [6]. - Inventory: The inventory is 242,000 tons, at a high level. The silicone inventory is 54,300 tons, at a low level. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 49,400 tons [6]. - Cost: The sample oxygen - passing 553 production in Xinjiang has a loss of 2939 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the flood season [6]. - Market indicators: The spot price in East China is 9050 yuan/ton, the basis of the 11 - contract is 660 yuan/ton, the social inventory is 545,000 tons, the sample enterprise inventory is 171,150 tons, the main port inventory is 117,000 tons, the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20, and the main position is net short [6][17]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease compared to the previous week. The production schedule for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.1GW, a 0.66% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 198,000 tons, a 3.61% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The battery cell and component production also have different trends in output, inventory, and profit [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,850 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,150 yuan/ton [9]. - Market indicators: The basis of the 11 - contract is - 4875 yuan/ton, the weekly inventory is 242,000 tons, the 11 - contract futures price closes above the MA20, and the main position is net long [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts have declined to different extents, with the decline rate ranging from 2.56% to 3.75%. The spot prices of different types of silicon in East China have also decreased, with the decline rate between 0.49% and 1.63% [17]. - The inventory of different regions and enterprises has different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. The production and capacity utilization rate of different regions also show different changes [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components of different models are mostly stable. The inventory, output, and export of polysilicon - related products have different degrees of change [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Show the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon main contracts and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [21]. - **Inventory**: Include the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, sample enterprises, and registered warehouse receipts [25]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization Rate**: Present the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization rate, and production of different specifications [28][29][30]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Show the historical trends of cost and profit for industrial silicon production in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Illustrate the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon and polysilicon [36][39][62]. - **Downstream Trends** - **Organosilicon**: Involve the price, production, cost, profit, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][48]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Include the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the automotive and wheel hub sectors [51][54][56]. - **Polysilicon - Related**: Cover the cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [59][65][68][71][74][77][78].

风险提示：以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 公司8月19日晚间发布半年度报告显示，2025年上半年实现营业收入26.19亿元，同比增长51.66%；归属 于上市公司股东的净利润1976.96万元，同比下降44.27%。8月20日公司公告称，聘任王斌为新任总经 理。 8月20日主力资金净流出3975.80万元，近五日主力资金净流出10507.25万元。 截至2025年8月20日收盘，永茂泰股价报15.10元，较前一交易日下跌0.73元，跌幅4.61%。当日成交量 为208165手，成交额3.16亿元。 永茂泰主要从事汽车用铝合金和汽车零部件的研发、生产和销售。公司产品包括铝合金锭、铝合金液、 汽车零部件等，主要应用于汽车发动机、变速箱、底盘等系统。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, there are factors of cost - upward support and manufacturers' plans for shutdown and production cuts, but there are also issues such as slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The downward trend is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9010 [6][12][13]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. Demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51205 - 54275 [8][9][10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 87,000 tons, a 3.57% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased. The inventory of polysilicon is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. The inventory of silicone is at a low level, with a production profit of 392 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 75.05%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is at a high level, with an import loss of 502 yuan/ton. The freight and profit of A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi is 581.84 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum is 53%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week, at a low level [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2939 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On August 15, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 395 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 545,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises is 171,150 tons, a 0.65% increase from the previous week. The inventory of major ports is 117,000 tons, a 0.84% decrease from the previous week, which is bearish [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes below MA20, which is neutral [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is increasing and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is increasing. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9010 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production of polysilicon was 29,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous week. The planned production for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of silicon wafers was 12.1GW, a 0.66% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 198,000 tons, a 3.61% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The planned production for August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. In July, the production of battery cells was 58.19GW, a 0.20% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cells in external sales factories was 4.98GW, a 29.01% increase from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The planned production for August is 59.15GW, a 1.64% increase from the previous month. In July, the production of components was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. The expected production of components in August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,280 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9720 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On August 15, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 5740 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 242,000 tons, a 3.86% increase from the previous week, at a high level in the same historical period, which is neutral [10]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20, which is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. Demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51205 - 54275 [10]. Other Key Points - **Industrial Silicon Market Overview**: The report provides detailed data on the prices, production, inventory, and other aspects of different contracts of industrial silicon, as well as the prices, production, and inventory of its downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [16][18]. - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends of Industrial Silicon**: It shows the trends of the basis of the main contract of industrial silicon and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: It presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: It shows the production and capacity utilization trends of sample enterprises of industrial silicon [27]. - **Main Production Area Electricity Price Trends**: It shows the electricity price trends in main production areas such as Yunnan Nujiang, Sichuan Liangshan, and Xinjiang Turpan [32]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Area Trends**: It shows the cost - profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: They show the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon [35][38]. - **Downstream of Industrial Silicon - Organic Silicon**: It includes the price and production trends of DMC, the price trends of downstream products, and the import - export and inventory trends [41][43][46]. - **Downstream of Industrial Silicon - Aluminum Alloy**: It includes the price and supply situation, inventory and production trends, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) [49][52][54]. - **Downstream of Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon**: It includes the cost and price trends, supply - demand balance sheet, silicon wafer trends, and battery cell trends [57][60][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply increased last week, demand remained weak, costs in Xinjiang decreased during the wet season, and it is expected to oscillate between 8305 - 8695 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is expected to increase in August, demand shows signs of decline but may rebound later, and it is expected to oscillate between 47790 - 50610 [9][11]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, making the downward trend difficult to change [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% week - on - week decrease. Demand is persistently low [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 2354 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On August 1st, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 1050 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 540,000 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week increase; sample enterprise inventory was 171,450 tons, a 3.40% week - on - week decrease; major port inventory was 119,000 tons, a 0.83% week - on - week decrease [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling is decreasing and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support is increasing, and it is expected to oscillate between 8305 - 8695 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% week - on - week increase. The scheduled production in August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% week - on - week decrease; inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% week - on - week increase. Silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9500 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On August 1st, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 229,000 tons, a 5.76% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [13]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows signs of decline but may rebound later, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to oscillate between 47790 - 50610 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased, with the 09 contract down 2.97% week - on - week [19]. - Spot prices of some products remained stable, while the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 1.02% [19]. - Social inventory increased by 0.93% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 3.41% week - on - week, and major port inventory decreased by 0.83% week - on - week [19]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [21]. - Weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and inventory decreased by 22.06% week - on - week [21]. - Monthly battery cell output increased by 1.90% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 24.25% [21]. - Monthly component output increased by 1.73% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 8.44% [21]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show historical price and basis changes [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical inventory changes of different regions and ports [27]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical production and capacity utilization changes of sample enterprises [29]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical price changes of main production areas' electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrodes, and some reducing agents [34]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends show the historical cost and profit changes of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the historical supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations [38][41]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon trends show the production, price, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [44]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy trends show the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloys [52]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon trends show the cost, price, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other aspects of polysilicon [62]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component composition cost - profit trends (210mm) show the cost and profit trends of 210mm component compositions [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends show the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and solar power generation [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule is decreasing and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8565 - 8955 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to increase, while the demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and component production. Overall demand is in a state of continuous decline, and cost support remains stable. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 47770 - 50490 [10]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a high level, with a production profit of 986 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 65.11%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 817 yuan/ton [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2027 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 31, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 790 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week. Sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week. Main port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for July is predicted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11GW, a 1.78% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In July, the production schedule for silicon wafers, cells, and components all shows a decreasing trend [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9000 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On July 31, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2630 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a high level compared to the same period in history [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing [11]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts generally decreased, with the 08 contract having the largest decline of 7.06% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of silicon also decreased, with the price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon dropping by 2.05% [17]. - The 421 - 553 price difference increased by 20.00% [17]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts decreased, with the 09 contract having a decline of 10.19% [19]. - The prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components remained mostly stable, with some slight changes in profit margins [19]. 3. Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 price difference in the industrial silicon market show certain trends over time [21]. 4. Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory have different trends, with social inventory decreasing and sample enterprise inventory increasing [17]. - Polysilicon weekly inventory decreased by 5.76% [19]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization show certain trends over time, with some regional differences in production and operating rates [29]. - Polysilicon production and monthly operating rates also show corresponding trends [63]. 6. Cost - Industrial silicon component costs, including electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices, show different trends [34]. - Polysilicon industry costs also show certain trends over time [63]. 7. Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the relationship between supply, demand, and inventory [38][42]. - Polysilicon monthly supply - demand balance tables show the relationship between consumption, exports, imports, supply, and balance [66]. 8. Downstream Market Organic Silicon - DMC price, production, export, import, and inventory show different trends over time [44][49]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also show corresponding trends [46]. Aluminum Alloy - The prices, in - and - out - bound trade, inventory, production, and operating rates of aluminum alloy show different trends [52][56]. - The demand for aluminum alloy in the automotive and wheel hub industries also shows corresponding trends [57]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and operating rates of polysilicon and its downstream products (silicon wafers, cells, components) show different trends [62]. - The supply - demand balance of polysilicon and its downstream products also shows corresponding trends [65]. - The prices, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic films, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and solder strips show different trends [77]. - The cost and profit of polysilicon component components show corresponding trends [80]. - The new installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power generation show different trends [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand remained weak, and costs in Xinjiang showed reduced support during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9090 - 9480 yuan/ton. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to increase, while the demand shows a short - term decline in wafer production but a medium - term recovery expectation. The battery and component production shows a continuous decline. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53400 - 56010 yuan/ton. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [9][10][11]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts and shutdowns. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a difficult - to - change downward trend [14][15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% week - on - week decrease. The demand remains sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 2027 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 465 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% week - on - week increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling decreases and remains at a low level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support increases. The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9090 - 9480 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% week - on - week increase. The scheduled production in July is expected to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% month - on - month increase [9]. - Demand: The wafer production last week was 11.2 GW, a 0.90% week - on - week increase. The wafer inventory was 178,700 tons, a 11.54% week - on - week increase, and the wafer production is currently at a loss. The scheduled production in July is 52.2 GW, a 11.28% month - on - month decrease. The battery production in June was 56.19 GW, a 6.73% month - on - month decrease. The external sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 5.33 GW, a 46.37% week - on - week decrease, and the battery production is currently at a loss. The scheduled production in July is 54.52 GW, a 2.97% month - on - month decrease. The component production in June was 46.3 GW, a 10.61% month - on - month decrease. The expected component production in July is 45.45 GW, a 1.83% month - on - month decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% month - on - month decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 30.5 GW, a 20.77% month - on - month decrease. The component production is currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,390 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,110 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 30, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 8205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level in the same period of history, which is neutral [12]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [12]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling continues to increase, the demand shows a short - term decline in wafer production but a medium - term recovery expectation, the battery and component production shows a continuous decline. The overall demand shows a recovery but may be weak in the future. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53400 - 56010 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of different contracts and specifications of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and cost - profit data of its downstream organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries [18]. - Polysilicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, production, inventory, and cost - profit of polysilicon and its downstream wafers, battery cells, and components [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the market has a bearish sentiment due to factors such as over - supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9160 - 9540 [6]. - For polysilicon, although the supply is increasing, the demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. The price is expected to fluctuate between 49545 - 52065 [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some influencing factors such as cost support and production reduction plans [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week, and demand remained sluggish. Polysilicon and organic silicon inventories were at high levels, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was also high [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2027 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main position: The main position was net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, demand recovery was at a low level, cost support increased slightly. The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9160 - 9540 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week. The estimated production in July was 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.2GW, a 0.90% increase from the previous week, but the inventory increased by 11.54%. The current production was in a loss state. In July, the production scheduling decreased. The battery cell production continued to decrease, and the component production also decreased. However, overall demand showed some recovery but may be weak in the future [10][11]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 36,390 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 9110 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 29, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4305 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease from the previous week, at a high level in the same period of history [13]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main position: The main position was net long, with long positions decreasing [13]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 49545 - 52065 [12]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend, with an increase of about 4 - 5% [19]. - Spot price: The prices of some silicon products decreased slightly, while the price of East China organic silicon - used 421 silicon remained unchanged [19]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory increased, and the main port inventory remained unchanged [19]. 3.3 Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend [21]. - Spot price: The prices of most silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained unchanged [21]. - Inventory: The weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased, and the photovoltaic cell export inventory decreased significantly [21]. 3.4 Other Related Content - The report also includes the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization trends, component cost trends, cost - profit trends, and supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon, as well as the market trends of organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon downstream industries [23][27][31]