交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | . | 3万吨 ， | 环比有所增加1 . | 09% 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 6万吨 环比增长7 ， | 50% . . | 需求有所抬升 | . | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为22 . | 6万吨 ， | 处于高位 ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 ， | 组件盈利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,790 - 9,060 for the 2511 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production scheduling continues to decrease, while the demand-side shows continuous recovery in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49,305 - 51,215 for the 2511 contract [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production; the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 23, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, an 0.84% increase [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output of polysilicon was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the output of silicon wafers was 13.92 GW, a 0.28% increase from the previous week; the inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On September 23, the price of N - type dense material was 51,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,390 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical low [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of various industrial silicon contracts and spot prices have shown different degrees of decline or stability [14]. - Inventory: Different types of inventories, including social, sample enterprise, and main port inventories, have increased to varying degrees [14]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly production of sample enterprises has increased, and the capacity utilization rates in different regions have also changed [14]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Price: The prices of polysilicon contracts have decreased, while the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have remained stable [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of silicon wafers and photovoltaic cells has increased, while the domestic and European inventories of components have decreased [16]. - Production: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has shown different trends of increase or stability [16].

Group 1: Research Basic Information - The research object is Yichiu Resources, belonging to the non - ferrous metals industry, with a reception time of September 23, 2025. The listed company's reception staff includes General Manager Liu Kaimin, Board Secretary Gao Yulan, Financial Officer Huang Qinli, and Independent Director Huang Junwang [17] Group 2: Detailed Research Institutions - The reception objects include investors and others [20] Group 3: Main Content - The application fields of the company's aluminum alloy ingot products are expanding with the development of emerging industries, covering new energy vehicles, medical devices, high - voltage power grids, and humanoid robots in addition to traditional sectors [24] - The company maintains a steady and continuous expansion pace. It acquired the assets of Girard Company in 2020 and two auto - dismantling plants in the first half of 2025, and will continue to promote business expansion and resource integration in the future [24] - The profit models of the US M company include recycling and reselling waste household appliances and metals for price differences, dismantling and reselling auto parts, and classifying and selling disassembled auto raw materials [25] - The US subsidiary's recycled waste metals are mainly iron, but also contain some copper and platinum - group precious metals from scrap - car catalytic converters [25] - The company's subsidiary M company disassembles about 25,000 whole vehicles annually, and the non - whole vehicle volume is about 2 - 3 times that of whole vehicles [25] - The company's business model is production based on sales, which can naturally hedge most price risks [26] - The company will gradually release the new 650,000 - ton production capacity in Malaysia according to market demand and price factors [26] - The company has been researching the domestic waste - aluminum recycling network. It will combine the experience of its US subsidiary M company and domestic waste - market conditions to enter the upstream when the time is right [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8815 - 9085 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule continues to decrease, while the demand for wafers, cells, and components continues to increase. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50040 - 51940 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, wafers and cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a high level, with a production profit of - 447 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 71.12%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 22, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% week - on - week increase; sample enterprise inventory is 174,950 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week increase; major port inventory is 120,000 tons, an 0.84% week - on - week increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 3.79% month - on - month decrease. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons [8]. - Demand: Last week, the wafer output was 13.92GW, a 0.28% week - on - week increase, and the inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% week - on - week increase. Currently, wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% month - on - month increase. The cell output in August was 58.27GW, a 0.13% month - on - month increase [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On September 22, the basis of the 11 - contract was 1660 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% week - on - week decrease, at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: Most contract prices of industrial silicon futures decreased compared to the previous value, while some spot prices increased slightly [14]. - Inventory: Various types of inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, showed different degrees of increase [14]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased, and the output in Xinjiang increased significantly [14]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of industrial silicon in different regions showed different trends, with some regions in a loss state [14]. Polysilicon - Price: Most contract prices of polysilicon futures decreased compared to the previous value, and the prices of wafers, cells, and components showed different degrees of stability or slight changes [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of wafers decreased, while the inventory of cells increased, and the inventory of components decreased [16]. - Production and Demand: The production of wafers, cells, and components increased, and the export of cells increased significantly [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is slow, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to be stable in the medium - term, demand is gradually recovering, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [6][8][10]. - The main logic for the market is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost support and inventory levels affecting the market [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease. The inventory of polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy ingots is at different levels, with silicone and aluminum alloy ingots at high levels [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season, with a production loss of 3237 yuan/ton for sample oxygen - passing 553 [6]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 195 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased, which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule is increasing, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The price of industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035 [8]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase. The demand side shows that the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has different changes, and the current production of silicon wafers is in a loss state [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Although the production is increasing, it is currently in a loss state [10]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 605 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase, at a low level in the same period, which is neutral [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [10]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule will decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term. Demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is stable. The price of polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased, and spot prices remained unchanged. Inventory increased, and production and some regions' operating rates also changed [16]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased. The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed, and the export of photovoltaic cells increased [18]. 3.4 Price and Basis Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [20]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the trends of the disk price and the basis of the main contract [23]. 3.5 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory in various regions and warehouses increased. The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also changed [16][26][28]. - **Polysilicon**: The total inventory increased, and the production and operating rates of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [10][18]. 3.6 Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are presented [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry is shown [62]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon [65]. 3.8 Downstream Market Analysis - **Organic Silicon**: Analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Analyzes the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [52][55][57]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: Analyzes the cost, price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and related accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry [62][68][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has weakened. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8780 - 9050 yuan/ton [6][8] - For polysilicon, the short - term supply scheduling will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium - term. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 52675 - 54665 yuan/ton [10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish [6] - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3237 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was 185 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [8] Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The September production schedule is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10] - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and inventory decreased by 1.78%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The September production schedule is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. Battery cell and component production also show different trends of change [10] - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,380 yuan/ton [10] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1170 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level in the same period of history. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [10] 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. Spot prices of different grades of silicon also increased slightly [17] - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased [17] - Production: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased by 4.66% [17] Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [19] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of silicon wafers decreased by 1.78%, and the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells decreased by 40.85% [19] - Production: The weekly output of silicon wafers increased by 5.74%, and the monthly output of photovoltaic cells increased by 0.14% [19] 3. Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through multiple charts [21][27][28][36] - Polysilicon: The disk price trend, price - basis trend, and inventory trend are presented through multiple charts [24][25][65] 4. Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the changes in production, import, export, consumption, and balance [38][41] - Polysilicon: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the changes in supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [67] 5. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the profit - cost trend and weekly output trend are presented through charts [45] - Other products: The price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are presented through charts [47][48] Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The price trends of waste aluminum recycling, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap imports, and the import cost - profit trend of ADC12 are presented through charts [55] - Inventory and production: The monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly opening rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory trend of aluminum alloy ingots are presented through charts [58] - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels are presented through charts [59] Polysilicon - Cost and price: The cost and price trends of polysilicon are presented through charts [65] - Inventory: The total inventory trend of polysilicon is presented through charts [65] - Silicon wafers: The relevant trends of silicon wafers are presented through charts, but specific content is not detailed in the text [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery is at a low level and cost support has weakened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, the short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch due to capacity mismatch is difficult to change [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 219,000 tons (low), silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), with a production profit of - 82 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive operating rate of 72.71% (unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 70,800 tons (high), with an import loss of 140 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is 55.5%, a 0.36% increase from the previous week (low) [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 255 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 539,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,950 tons, a 1.84% increase; and the inventory of major ports is 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [7]. - Expectation: The supply - side production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [7]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is predicted to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 165,500 tons, a 1.78% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. In August, battery cell production was 58.27GW, a 0.13% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of external - sales battery cell factories was 4.62GW, a 40.84% decrease. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 60.04GW, a 3.03% increase. In August, component production was 49.2GW, a 4.45% increase from the previous month, and the expected production for September is 50.3GW, a 2.23% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 12, the price of N - type dense material was 50,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2060 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase from the previous week, and it is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [9]. - Expectation: The short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts show various changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 - contract price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China is 9095 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the previous value [15]. - Inventory data shows that most inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, have increased to varying degrees [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of various types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the daily price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers (130μm) is 1.28 yuan/piece, unchanged from the previous value [17]. - The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends. For example, the weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease [17]. 3. Price and Basis Trends - The price and basis trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented through charts, showing historical price changes and the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][23]. 4. Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon inventory includes交割库及港口库存, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipts, all of which show certain trends of change over time [26]. - Polysilicon inventory also shows different trends, with the total inventory showing a certain increase [17]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions, such as Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, show different trends over time [28][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also shows different trends [29]. 6. Cost Trends - The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, such as Sichuan 421, Yunnan 421, and Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553, are presented through charts [36]. 7. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon show the relationship between production, import, export, consumption, and balance over different time periods [38][41]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon also shows the relationship between supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [66]. 8. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products, such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4, are presented [44][46][50]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, production, and operating rate trends of aluminum alloy, as well as the demand trends in the automotive and wheel - hub industries, are presented [53][56][57]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and component cost - profit, are presented [63][66][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply is stable, but demand is weak. The cost support is weakening in the flood season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 8605 - 8875 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply schedule is decreasing, while the demand shows a continuous recovery trend. The cost support is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate in the range of 52660 - 54760 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 1.21% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is in different states [6]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang is at a loss of 3322 yuan/ton, and the cost support is weakening in the flood season [6]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was 260 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory decreased by 0.73%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.55%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.68%. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [6][8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers last week was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory decreased by 1.78%. The production of battery cells and components is increasing, and the overall demand is recovering [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - **Other factors**: On September 11, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2160 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price. The weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is long, and the long position is decreasing [10]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 0.94% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon also showed increases, such as the price of East China non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon increased by 0.56% [17]. - Inventory data of different types, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory, showed a decreasing trend [17]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts increased. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 1.54% [19]. - Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were relatively stable, with small changes in some indicators [19]. - The export volume of battery cells and components increased, and the inventory of some products decreased [19]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, as well as the cost trends in sample regions, show fluctuations over time [21][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The market price and cost trends show that the price and cost of polysilicon have different change trends in different periods [64]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show that the supply - demand relationship is in a state of change, with different levels of balance or imbalance in different periods [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows that the supply and demand are also in a dynamic state, with different balance results in different months [67]. 3.5 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends show that the production capacity utilization rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased [47][53]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, and raw rubber are relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show that the inventory is at a high level, and the production and import - export situation is complex [56][59]. - The demand in the automotive and wheel - hub sectors is related to the production and sales of automobiles and the export of wheel - hubs [60]. Polysilicon Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: The price, production, inventory, and demand trends show that the production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [70]. - **Battery Cells**: The price, production, and export trends show that the production is increasing, and the export volume is also increasing [73]. - **Photovoltaic Components**: The price, production, inventory, and export trends show that the production and export are increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The price, production, and import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, and photovoltaic glass show different change trends [79]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit**: The cost - profit trends of different components in 210mm components show different profit situations [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 90,000 tons, remaining flat week-on-week, while demand was 81,000 tons, down 1.21% week-on-week, indicating persistent weak demand. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The price of industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,525 - 8,805 [6][8]. - For polysilicon, last week's production was 30,200 tons, down 2.58% week-on-week, and the September production schedule is forecasted to be 126,700 tons, down 3.79% month-on-month. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, but the cost support has weakened. The price of polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51,820 - 53,950 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. The supply and demand situation shows weak demand, and the cost support has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: Bullish. On September 10, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11th contract was 285 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The social inventory was 537,000 tons, down 0.73% week-on-week; the sample enterprise inventory was 170,800 tons, down 1.55% week-on-week; and the main port inventory was 117,000 tons, down 1.68% week-on-week [8]. - **Market Chart**: Bullish. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11th contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: Bearish. The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery remains at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly [8]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Bullish. Although production has decreased, demand in downstream sectors such as wafers, cells, and modules shows an upward trend, with module production in a profitable state [10]. - **Basis**: Bearish. On September 10, the price of N-type dense material was 50,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11th contract was -1,335 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The weekly inventory was 211,000 tons, down 0.93% week-on-week, at a historically low level [10]. - **Market Chart**: Bullish. The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11th contract closed above the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: Bullish. The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply schedules continue to decrease, while demand in downstream sectors continues to increase, with overall demand showing continuous recovery, but cost support has weakened [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon**: Provides detailed data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of industrial silicon contracts, as well as data on its downstream sectors such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [16][17][18]. - **Polysilicon**: Presents data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of polysilicon contracts, as well as data on its downstream sectors such as wafers, cells, and modules [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比减少1.21%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存为21.1万吨， 处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为73200吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润 为46元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为70.59%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭 库存为5.79万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为176元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为605.88元/吨，再 生铝开工率为55.3%，环比增加3.36%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损 ...