目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年3月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为6.9万吨，环比有所增加1.47%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6.1万吨，环比减少8.95%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存为34.4万吨， 处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片盈利，组件盈利；有机硅库存为47200吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润 为3310元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为63.28%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金 锭库存为6.7万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为088元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为563.79元/吨， 再生铝开工率为53.1%，环比增加13.22%,处于低位。 成本端来看,新疆地区 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年3月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为6.9万吨，环比有所增加1.47%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为6.1万吨，环比减少8.95%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅库存 为34.4万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片盈利，组件盈利；有机硅库存为47200 吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为3250元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率为 64.02%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为6.85万吨，处于高位， 进口利润为111元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为560.58元/吨，再生铝开工率为 53.1%，环比增加13.22%,处于低位。 成本端来看,新疆地 ...

1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 目 录 2026年2月24日 1 每日观点 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 成本端来看，多晶硅N型料行业平均成本为40830元/吨，生产利润为11420元/吨。 4 2、基差: 02月13日，N型致密料52250元/吨，05合约基差为3945元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 周度库存为34.9万吨，环比增加2.34%,处于历史同期高位。 偏空。 4、盘面: MA20向下，05合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，多减。 偏多。 6、预期: 供给端排产持续减少，需求端硅片生产持续减少，电池片生产持续减少，组件生产持续减少， 总体需求表现为持续衰退。成本支撑有所持稳。多晶硅2605:在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply decreased last week with a 13.41% week - on - week reduction to 71,000 tons; demand also decreased by 20.00% week - on - week to 60,000 tons, remaining sluggish. - Polycrystalline silicon inventory is at a high level of 349,000 tons; organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 47,200 tons with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and below the historical average. - Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 67,400 tons. - In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton, and the cost support is rising during the dry season. - On February 12th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passed silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 865 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions. - It is expected that industrial silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,240 - 8,430 [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply remained flat last week, with a production of 20,100 tons. The scheduled production for February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - Demand is in a continuous decline. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - On February 12th, the price of N - type dense materials was 52,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,235 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Weekly inventory is at a historical high of 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week. - The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions. - It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 47,940 - 50,090 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the downstream polycrystalline silicon market. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [11][12]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply is expected to continue to decrease, and demand is in a continuous recession. Cost support remains stable [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Positioning Data Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, with a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. - **Demand - side**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, with a 20.00% week - on - week decrease. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 865 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The scheduled production for February is 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - **Demand - side**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week, at a historical high. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 4,235 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 3.3 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased slightly. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 1.27% to 8,930 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various types of silicon remained stable, such as the price of non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton. - Inventory data showed a mixed trend, with social inventory increasing and sample enterprise inventory and main port inventory decreasing [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts were relatively stable, with only a few showing small declines. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% to 12.9 GW, and weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW. - Weekly battery cell inventory increased by 1.53% to 9.31 GW. - Monthly component production decreased by 9.04% to 35.2 GW, domestic inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76 GW, and European inventory increased by 9.27% to 34.2 GW [17]. 3.4 Other Aspects - The report also includes various trend charts and data on industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, such as price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and downstream industry trends (including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polycrystalline silicon downstream industries) [19][22][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon last week was 71,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.41%. Demand was 60,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. Demand remained sluggish. The cost support increased during the dry season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,275 - 8,465 [6]. - The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but there are positive factors such as rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. Negative factors include the slow recovery of demand after the holiday and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production last week was 20,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. The scheduled production in February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93%. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,075 - 50,285 [8][11]. - The fundamental situation is bearish, but there are positive factors such as the net long position of the main contract (with a decrease in long positions) and the spot price premium over the futures price [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, down 13.41% week - on - week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, down 20% week - on - week. The inventory and profit status of downstream products vary: polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level; organic silicon inventory is at a low level with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 830 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 562,000 tons, up 1.44% week - on - week; sample enterprise inventory was 206,000 tons, down 1.43% week - on - week; major port inventory was 136,000 tons, down 1.44% week - on - week [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level. Demand recovery is emerging. Cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,275 - 8,465 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, down 0.49% week - on - week. The scheduled production in February is 79,700 tons, down 20.93% month - on - month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, down 11.65% week - on - week, with an inventory of 283,200 tons, up 3.77% week - on - week, and the production is currently in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend, but battery cells and components are currently in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,920 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the price of N - type dense material was 52,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4,470 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [11]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 341,000 tons, up 2.40% week - on - week, at a neutral level compared to the historical average [11]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling continues to decrease, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,075 - 50,285 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of various industrial silicon contracts and spot products, including different grades of silicon in East China, contract prices from 01 to 12, and various inventory data such as social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory [17]. Polysilicon - It presents the price, change, and inventory data of polysilicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - The report also includes multiple charts and data on the price, production, inventory, and cost of industrial silicon and its downstream products (organic silicon, aluminum alloy, polysilicon, etc.). These charts show the historical trends and current situations of various indicators, providing a comprehensive reference for analyzing the market situation of industrial silicon and related industries [21][24][27] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The market sentiment has significantly cooled this week, and the AD price has declined. However, aluminum enterprises in the spot market are holding up prices, leading to a rapid expansion of the spot premium. Before the Spring Festival, the industry's operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, with limited support for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction - Volume and Price - The document shows data on the price differences between different AD contracts (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03) and the trends of capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest from 2025 - 10 to 2026 - 01 [7]. 3.2 Transaction - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2602 and AD2603 contracts on February 6, 2026, the fixed cost of the inter - period positive arbitrage in the casting aluminum alloy (including VAT, trading fees, etc.) is 15.32 yuan/ton, and the floating cost (including storage fees, capital costs, etc.) is 49.00 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 64.32 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of the casting aluminum alloy is 23,600 yuan/ton. The total cost of spot - futures arbitrage, including storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, is 23,751.9 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3 Supply - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level in the same period, and social inventories are continuously decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.82% [14][16]. 3.4 Supply - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has decreased, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has increased. The regional price difference of the casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of the casting aluminum alloy has decreased, while the monthly operating rate remains at a high level. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break - even line [26][31][36]. - The factory inventory of the casting aluminum alloy has increased significantly, while the social inventory has decreased slightly. The import window for the casting aluminum alloy is closed [43][44]. - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum bars are provided. The production of recycled aluminum bars in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also presented [47][49]. 3.5 Demand - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption, especially in the automotive sector, shows resilience, which is transmitted to the die - casting industry. The production data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts and the monthly value of the auto inventory warning index [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% decrease from the previous week. The supply-side production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level [6]. - Demand side: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% increase from the previous week, indicating a rise in demand. Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,145 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 64.02%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost side: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,490 - 8,720 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for February is forecasted to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand side: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.75 GW, an 8.19% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for February is 45.31 GW, a 1.34% decrease from the previous month. In January, the battery cell production was 41.44 GW, an 11.37% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell export factories was 9.17 GW, a 2.80% increase. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The production schedule for February is 36.7 GW, an 11.43% decrease. In January, the component production was 35.2 GW, a 9.04% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for February is 29.8 GW, a 15.34% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 34.2 GW, a 9.26% increase. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost side: The average cost of polysilicon N-type material in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,920 yuan/ton [10]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,250 - 50,850 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Industrial Silicon** - Supply: Decreased, with a weekly supply of 82,000 tons and a 1.20% decrease [6]. - Demand: Increased, with a weekly demand of 75,000 tons and a 7.14% increase [6]. - Cost: Increased, with the cost support rising during the dry season [6]. - Expectation: Fluctuate in the range of 8,490 - 8,720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Polysilicon** - Supply: Decreased, with a weekly production of 20,200 tons and a 1.46% decrease, and a forecasted February production of 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Mixed, with short - term silicon wafer production decreasing and medium - term recovery expected, battery cell production continuously decreasing, and component production continuously decreasing. Overall demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future [10]. - Cost: Increased, with cost support strengthening [10]. - Expectation: Fluctuate in the range of 48,250 - 50,850 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% decrease [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% increase [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 554,000 tons, a 0.35% decrease; sample enterprise inventory is 206,600 tons, a 1.14% decrease; major port inventory is 138,000 tons, a 0.73% increase [8]. - **Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% decrease, and the forecasted February production is 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer production last week was 11.75 GW, an 8.19% increase, and the inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% increase. Battery cell production and component production are decreasing [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,920 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 341,000 tons, a 2.40% increase, at a neutral level [10]. - **Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply decreased last week, demand increased, and the cost support rose during the dry - season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8675 - 8915. The fundamentals are bullish [6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling continued to decrease, demand showed some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support remained stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 45850 - 48250. The fundamentals are bullish [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to halt or reduce production [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Slow demand recovery after the holiday; strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9859.7 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 554,000 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 209,000 tons, a 1.92% week - on - week decrease; main port inventory was 138,000 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and short positions decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% week - on - week decrease. The predicted production scheduling for February was 79,700 tons, a 20.93% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.75GW, an 8.19% week - on - week increase. The inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon was 38,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 11,850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On February 2, the price of N - type dense material was 50,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 333,000 tons, a 0.90% week - on - week increase, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. - **Market Chart**: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and short positions turned to long [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices showed different changes, such as the 01 contract price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remaining unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: Different types of inventory, including social, sample enterprise, and port inventory, had different changes, with social inventory decreasing by 0.36% week - on - week [15]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Sample enterprise production decreased by 1.36% week - on - week, and the Xinjiang sample utilization rate decreased by 1.44% week - on - week [15]. - **Cost**: Costs in different regions, such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, showed different trends [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Price**: Various contract prices and spot prices of polysilicon products, such as N - type silicon wafers and dense materials, showed different changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.91% week - on - week [17]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and the photovoltaic cell monthly production decreased by 11.38% month - on - month [17]. - **Cost**: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.3万吨，环比有所减少2.35%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7万吨，环比减少4.10%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为33万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 53200吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为2145元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开 工率为64.02%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为6.73万 吨，处于高位，进口利润为626元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为714.29元/ 吨，再生铝开工率为59.3%，环比增加2.24%,处于高位。 成本端来看,新疆地区样本通氧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market has a bearish fundamental outlook, with supply remaining at a high level despite a reduction in production schedules, demand showing a slight recovery, and cost support increasing. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9045 [6]. - The polysilicon market has a mixed outlook. Supply production schedules continue to decrease, demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support stabilizes. The 2605 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48165 - 50505 [9]. - The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss - making state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,284 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 210,300 tons, a 1.31% decrease; and main port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. 2. Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease from the previous week. The planned production for January is 107,800 tons [9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.86 GW, a 0.27% increase. The inventory was 267,800 tons, an 8.07% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production of battery cells and components shows a downward trend in some periods, with battery cells in a loss - making state and components in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,650 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,850 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [9]. 3. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and different futures contracts are provided, along with their price changes and price differences [15]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory are presented, including their changes [15]. - **Production/Operating Rate**: Information on weekly sample enterprise production, production in different regions, and operating rates is given [15]. 4. Polysilicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and polysilicon materials are provided, along with their price changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly silicon wafer inventory, photovoltaic cell inventory, and polysilicon total inventory are presented, including their changes [17]. - **Production**: Information on weekly silicon wafer production, photovoltaic cell production, and polysilicon production is given [17]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Cost Trends**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, the disk price trends of polysilicon, the inventory trends of industrial silicon, the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, and the supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [19][22][25][29][37][41][44]. - **Downstream Market Trends**: It also includes the price and production trends of organic silicon DMC, the price trends of organic silicon downstream products, the import - export and inventory trends of organic silicon, the price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy, and the fundamental, supply - demand balance, silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component, photovoltaic accessory, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends of polysilicon [47][49][52][56][59][64][67][70][76][79][82][85][87].