Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 saw an initial price increase, indicating market interest despite current weak demand conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, the main contract AD2511 opened at 19,400 CNY/ton and closed at 19,190 CNY/ton, up 825 CNY/ton or 4.49% from the benchmark price [1]. - A total of 7 contracts were listed, with a trading volume of 57,300 lots and a transaction value of 11.011 billion CNY [1]. - The average cost of aluminum alloy was reported at 20,086 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of -486 CNY/ton as of the week ending June 5 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum alloy market is currently in a consumption off-season, with both supply and demand showing weakness [2]. - Production rates have decreased, leading to a significant drop in imports, while downstream consumption, particularly in the automotive sector, is also declining [2]. - Social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots has been increasing for three consecutive weeks, with a total increase of nearly 30,000 tons since early May [2]. Group 3: Pricing and Cost Structure - Current spot prices for casting aluminum alloy are influenced by various pricing platforms, with Jiangxi Baotai often offering lower prices [3]. - The market is expected to see a division in the supply of ADC12, with high-quality aluminum water primarily supplied to major manufacturers and lower-quality products circulating in the market [3]. - The cost of recycled aluminum is under pressure from tight supply and stable aluminum prices, while the spot price of ADC12 is gradually decreasing, indicating challenges in passing on cost pressures during the off-season [2][3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - The main participants in the futures market are expected to be alloy ingot producers and downstream secondary component suppliers, with major manufacturers participating less due to their established pricing mechanisms [4]. - The AD2511 contract is anticipated to experience significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and the influence of raw aluminum prices [4]. - Producers are advised to focus on selling hedges, while downstream companies should consider purchasing spot aluminum to mitigate risks during the off-season [4].

1. Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: May 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 2. Market Data on May 28 2.1 Futures Contract Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest | Contract Code | Previous Closing Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Capital Inflow/Outflow | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 | 2980 | 2981 | 2982 | 2950 | 2964 | -0.77% | 1,333,951 | 2,441,388 | 41,409 | 0.59 | | HC2510 | 3111 | 3110 | 3116 | 3084 | 3100 | -0.55% | 452,531 | 1,537,114 | 23,289 | 0.39 | | SS2507 | 12855 | 12855 | 12860 | 12665 | 12680 | -1.32% | 175,163 | 102,719 | 10,293 | 0.80 | | I2509 | 698.5 | 699 | 702.5 | 695 | 698.5 | -0.14% | 287,342 | 721,508 | - | 0.05 | [5] 2.2 Black Series Futures Open Interest | Contract | Top 20 Long Open Interest | Top 20 Short Open Interest | Top 20 Long Open Interest Change | Top 20 Short Open Interest Change | Difference | Deviation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 | 1,455,901 | 1,563,182 | 40,029 | 30,268 | 9,761 | 0.65% | | HC2510 | 1,123,502 | 1,009,973 | 9,570 | 16,784 | -7,214 | -0.68% | | SS2507 | 71,503 | 69,923 | 5,916 | 2,844 | 3,072 | 4.34% | | J2509 | 36,486 | 35,967 | 485 | 735 | -250 | -0.69% | | JM2509 | 269,924 | 315,361 | 4,148 | 9,388 | -5,240 | -1.79% | | I2509 | 442,331 | 469,836 | 1,955 | -2,322 | 4,277 | 0.94% | [8] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On May 28, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 fluctuated weakly, opened lower, then rebounded, and finally declined, closing at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [7] - In the spot market, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained the same as the previous trading day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline; the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract expanded after yesterday's death - cross [9] 3.2 Outlook - Supply: The arrival volume at 45 ports continued to decline last week, with overall supply tightening marginally. However, the shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil continued to rise, and as it is about to enter the shipment rush period in June, the long - term supply of iron ore remains relatively loose [10] - Demand: The average daily pig iron output continued to decline slightly to 243.6 tons last week. The output of the five major steel products increased slightly, but the apparent demand declined. Overall, the demand for iron ore has shown a peak - topping trend [10] - Inventory: The available days of steel mill inventory decreased by 2 days to 20 days, and the port inventory continued to decline, falling below 140 million tons, reaching a new low since mid - March 2024. The marginal decline in inventory supports the iron ore price to some extent [11] - Overall: With the pig iron output peaking and declining, and the rainy season approaching, the demand for iron ore may gradually weaken in the later period, and the iron ore price faces pressure. Currently, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil have broken through the previous support levels, and coke has also experienced two rounds of price cuts, so the iron ore price may lose support. It is advisable to try selling hedging or investment strategies, and spot traders can also try the accumulated put option strategy to increase profits [11] 4. Industry News - On May 28, at the regular press conference, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning commented on the remarks of the President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China and the investment plans of US companies in China, emphasizing that China - US economic and trade relations are mutually beneficial and win - win [12] - On May 27, the Brazilian government announced that the Brazilian Foreign Trade Commission decided to extend the steel import quota measure for one year, with the in - quota tax rate remaining at 9% - 16% and a 25% tariff for the part exceeding the quota. Four new products were added to the import quota list, increasing the number of restricted products from 19 to 23, aiming to protect the domestic industry [12] 5. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade/low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the September contract, the shipping volume from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national average daily pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][15][25]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: May 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - On May 26, the iron ore futures main 2509 contract fluctuated downward. Fundamentally, the supply side shows tightening in the short - term but ample long - term supply. The demand has peaked, and although the inventory decline supports the price to some extent, the iron ore demand may weaken in the later period, and the price faces pressure [7][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1 Market Review - On May 26, the iron ore futures main 2509 contract opened lower, fluctuated downward, and then oscillated in the afternoon, closing at 706.5 yuan/ton, down 2.21%. The main steel and iron ore futures contracts generally declined. For example, RB2510 fell 1.67%, HC2510 fell 2.03%, SS2507 fell 0.04%, and I2509 fell 2.21% [7][5]. - In the spot market, on May 26, the main iron ore overseas quotes dropped 1.5 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline after yesterday's dead - cross, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator has been narrowing for 7 consecutive trading days [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: Last week, the arrival volume at 45 ports continued to decline, with marginal tightening of overall supply. However, the shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil continued to rise, and as it is approaching the shipment rush period in June, the long - term supply of iron ore is still ample [10]. - Demand: Last week, the daily average hot metal output continued to decline slightly to 243.6 million tons. The output of five major steel products increased slightly, but the apparent demand declined. Overall, the iron ore demand has shown a peaking trend [10]. - Inventory: The available days of steel mill inventory decreased by 2 days to 20 days, and the port inventory continued to decline, falling below 140 million tons, reaching a new low since mid - March 2024. The marginal decline in inventory supports the iron ore price to some extent [11]. - Overall: With the hot metal output peaking and the rainy season approaching, the iron ore demand may gradually weaken in the later period, and the price faces pressure. It is advisable to try selling hedging or investment strategies, and spot traders can also try the accumulated put option strategy to increase profits [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On May 25, Trump commented on Nippon Steel's acquisition plan of US Steel, saying it was an investment and US Steel would still be under US control [12]. - On May 22, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. held its Fourth Non - oriented Silicon Steel Application Technology Conference in Chengdu, globally launching 4 new high - performance non - oriented silicon steel products, including one with extremely low iron loss and high magnetic induction, which can be widely used in humanoid robots and low - altitude aircraft [12]. - On May 23, Trump proposed to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1, 2025. On May 25, he agreed to the EU's request to extend the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9 [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to iron ore, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spreads between different grades of ore, the basis between spot and futures, the shipment and arrival volumes, the utilization rate of domestic mines, the port inventory and shipping volume, the steel mill inventory and cost, the furnace operating rate and production capacity utilization rate, the hot metal output, and the steel product consumption and production [15][21][25].