策略联合行业 周期在扩散 20260129 摘要 上游周期品受益于资金面宽松和产能周期底部，供需紧平衡推动价格上 涨，化工、黑色链、地产链等领域具备投资机会，短期市场强势，长期 逻辑支持，但需关注结构性轮动和性价比。 化工行业公募持仓低配，双碳政策限制新增产能，资本开支负增长限制 供给，行业景气度向上。关注石油石化资源禀赋好的企业，基础化工需 求超预期及双碳政策边际变化下的核心资产，以及出海方向的轮胎企业。 煤炭板块供给收缩，海外需求增加，库存下降，价格随时可能上涨。PB 角度看公司被低估，现货比例高的公司业绩弹性仍然存在，应乐观地看 待节后市场，并关注被严重低估且具备业绩弹性的煤炭公司。 全球动荡局势下，实物资产崛起，黄金牛市持续，地缘冲突加剧避险情 绪，央行购金持续，推荐紫金黄金国际和山东黄金。工业金属看好铝和 铜，铝板块重点推荐中国铝业，铜板块则建议配置藏格紫金与洛钼。 顺丰控股具备绝对收益和估值修复空间，2025 年与 2026 年的绝对收 益率为 3.8%，估值创十年新低，后续 EPS 上修与 PE 修复空间较大。 顺丰同城第三方配送领域占据领先地位，未来互联网大厂合作将带来单 量与业绩的大幅提升。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - In July, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a stable yet slightly declining breeding sow inventory at 40.42 million heads, with a significant increase in pig slaughtering volume, reaching 31.66 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 5.3% and a year-on-year increase of 30.4% [1][3] - The average price of commodity pigs showed a slight rebound to 14.84 yuan/kg in July, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.6% [1] - The overall profitability of the industry remained marginal, with average profits per head for large-scale farms at 21 yuan and for smallholders at 6 yuan [1] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market, with the agricultural index rising by 2.02% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 0.84% increase [13] - The livestock farming sector saw a rise of 4.39%, while other sectors like animal health and fisheries experienced declines [13] 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs was reported at 13.66 yuan/kg, down 0.65% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets was 27.14 yuan/kg, down 2.3% [22] - The average slaughter weight of pigs decreased to 127.83 kg, with a slight decline of 0.15 kg week-on-week [22] 3. Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is expected to enter a long-term profit upcycle, with recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [3][68] - The feed and animal health sectors are also highlighted for potential growth, particularly with the recent clinical trials of vaccines [3][68] - The planting chain is recommended for investment due to the upward trend in grain prices, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang being noted [3][68] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [3][70]

Group 1 - The swine breeding sector is experiencing a recovery in pig prices due to policy guidance, with post-slaughter weights declining and supply-demand dynamics realigning, indicating a positive outlook for prices [1] - Long-term capacity cycle bottoms are becoming clearer, suggesting the sector may enter a prolonged period of profitability [1] - The recovery in swine inventory is boosting demand for feed and animal health products, with the African swine fever vaccine entering clinical trials, which is expected to drive growth in the animal health sector [1] Group 2 - In the planting chain, the upward trend in grain prices is established, with favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries [1] - Recent increases in natural rubber prices are attributed to rainy weather in Southeast Asia affecting raw material output, maintaining a tight supply situation, while downstream tire production rates are recovering, supporting rubber prices [1] - In the white feather broiler sector, prices for live chickens and chicks have increased by 2.56% and 38.38% week-on-week, respectively, driven by the summer stocking season [1] Group 3 - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock breeding, feed processing, and animal health to reflect the overall performance of the livestock sector [1] - The index focuses on upstream industry allocation within the agricultural and food supply chain [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai China Securities Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Connect C (012725) [1]