Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the certainty of capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by both policy and market forces, which is expected to enhance long-term performance and valuation of the sector [3][6] - The report highlights the strong performance of yellow chicken prices, which are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term [20][36] - The report notes that the natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, making prices more likely to rise than fall [36] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, where quality companies are expected to maintain profitability and increase dividend rates, with key stocks including Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy) [3] - It suggests that the post-cycle sector will benefit from a rebound in pig inventory, boosting demand for feed and animal health products, with relevant stocks being Haida Group (002311, Not Rated) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the upward trend in grain prices is established, presenting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting, with stocks like Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated) and Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated) highlighted [3] - The pet food sector is noted for its growth potential, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous growth of leading companies, including Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated) and Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The pig sector is nearing the end of its inventory reduction phase, with recent price declines observed; as of September 12, the average price for pigs was 13.34 yuan/kg, down 3.12% week-on-week [9][50] - The white feather broiler market is experiencing a return to low volatility, with prices for broilers and chicks declining [16][50] - The yellow feather broiler prices have shown resilience, with prices reaching 6.78 yuan/jin, up 3.99% week-on-week [20][50] - The feed sector is seeing a stabilization in raw material prices, with corn and soybean meal prices showing slight increases [27][50] Market Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market, with the agricultural index rising 4.81% during the week of September 8-12, 2025, compared to a 1.52% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [42][46] - Individual stocks within the agricultural sector showed significant gains, with Lihua Co. leading with a 17.31% increase [46][47]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - In July, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a stable yet slightly declining breeding sow inventory at 40.42 million heads, with a significant increase in pig slaughtering volume, reaching 31.66 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 5.3% and a year-on-year increase of 30.4% [1][3] - The average price of commodity pigs showed a slight rebound to 14.84 yuan/kg in July, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.6% [1] - The overall profitability of the industry remained marginal, with average profits per head for large-scale farms at 21 yuan and for smallholders at 6 yuan [1] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market, with the agricultural index rising by 2.02% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 0.84% increase [13] - The livestock farming sector saw a rise of 4.39%, while other sectors like animal health and fisheries experienced declines [13] 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs was reported at 13.66 yuan/kg, down 0.65% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets was 27.14 yuan/kg, down 2.3% [22] - The average slaughter weight of pigs decreased to 127.83 kg, with a slight decline of 0.15 kg week-on-week [22] 3. Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is expected to enter a long-term profit upcycle, with recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [3][68] - The feed and animal health sectors are also highlighted for potential growth, particularly with the recent clinical trials of vaccines [3][68] - The planting chain is recommended for investment due to the upward trend in grain prices, with companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang being noted [3][68] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [3][70]