Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Xia Yingying - Research Assistant: Yu Weihan [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China during the wet season is ending, which will slow down and potentially decrease the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected, showing a slow - down trend. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of inventory accumulation will ease [4]. - **Demand**: The demand from the organic silicon industry has limited changes, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy field remains stable. The polysilicon sector is expected to see a steady increase in demand for industrial silicon in the next two months [4]. - **Market Outlook**: If the supply - side operating rate declines as expected and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - **Core Logic**: The price trend of polysilicon futures depends on factors such as the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November, the stability and increase of component bid - winning prices, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected electricity prices [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term trading focus is on whether the storage platform will be established in October, and then it will shift to the expectation game of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November. High volatility and risks are associated with polysilicon futures [10]. Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8605 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan (0.41%) and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan (- 0.41%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 209,588 lots, a daily decrease of 15,480 lots (- 6.88%) and a weekly decrease of 943 lots (- 0.45%) [13]. - The open interest of the main contract is 131,649 lots, a daily decrease of 10,732 lots (- 7.54%) and a weekly decrease of 44,914 lots (- 25.44%) [13]. 2. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8750 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decrease of 100 yuan (- 1.13%) [21]. - The price of 553 industrial silicon in Tianjin is 9250 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decrease of 50 yuan (- 0.54%) [21]. - The price of 421 industrial silicon in Yunnan is 9950 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [21]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The total warehouse - receipt volume is 50,291 lots, a decrease of 66 lots (0.21%) from the previous period [36]. - The warehouse - receipt volume in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 223 tons (0.84%) week - on - week [36]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1710 yuan (3.36%) and a weekly increase of 1810 yuan (3.57%) [37]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 266,129 lots, a daily decrease of 10,047 lots (- 3.64%) and a weekly increase of 64,818 lots (32.20%) [37]. - The open interest of the main contract is 78,885 lots, a daily decrease of 1229 lots (- 1.53%) and a weekly decrease of 6102 lots (- 7.18%) [37]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material is 52.75 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.2 yuan (0.38%) [45]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers (G10 - 182, 130um) is 1.35 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [45]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 85 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1710 yuan (- 95.26%) and a weekly decrease of 1510 yuan (- 94.67%) [55]. - The total polysilicon warehouse - receipt volume is 7950 lots, a decrease of 100 lots from the previous period [56].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply - The end of the low - electricity - price period in Southwest China during the wet season will slow down and potentially decrease the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. Overall, the future operating rate of industrial silicon may peak, reducing the risk of inventory accumulation and supply - side pressure [4]. - Demand - The demand from the organic silicon industry is limited, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy remains stable. The demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months as enterprise profits improve and production schedules are raised. If supply decreases and polysilicon demand increases, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. - Factors Affecting Price - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment, limited downward space for costs, and strong demand. Negative factors include potential weakening of demand due to industrial integration or production cuts in the polysilicon industry [7][8]. Polysilicon - Supply - The production schedule of polysilicon enterprises in September is expected to increase, exacerbating the supply - side surplus. The increasing number of daily warehouse receipts also pressures the futures market [10]. - Demand - The production pace of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to slow. Terminal demand lags, and high inventory restricts the demand for polysilicon [10]. - Long - term Outlook - If major enterprises reach effective integration agreements, the current "over - capacity and price involution" situation may improve, fundamentally repairing the supply - demand pattern [10]. 3. Section Summaries Industrial Silicon - **Risk Management Strategy** - Price Forecast - The strong support level of the industrial silicon main contract is 8200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 77.6% [2]. - Procurement Management - For products with no price correlation, 60% of the corresponding futures contracts can be bought at 7900 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 40% of put options (SI2511 - P - 8200) can be sold. For products with price correlation, 20% of the main futures contracts can be sold according to the procurement progress, and 40% of put - call option combinations can be bought according to the procurement cost [2]. - Sales Management - 20% of the corresponding futures contracts can be sold according to the production plan, and 40% of put - call option combinations can be bought according to the sales profit [2]. - Inventory Management - 10% - 20% of the main futures contracts can be sold at 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 20% - 40% of call options (SI2511 - C - 9200) can be sold [2]. - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8515 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. The trading volume is 371805 lots, with a weekly increase of 9.69%. The open interest is 277305 lots, with a weekly decrease of 5.17% [12]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50072 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1.15% [13]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of 99 and 553 industrial silicon in different regions are mostly stable, while the prices of 421 in some regions have decreased by about 100 yuan/ton in a week [18]. - The price of trichlorosilane is 3375 yuan/kg, the N - type polysilicon price index is 51.13 yuan/kg, the price of DMC is 10650 yuan/ton, and the price of alloy ADC12 is 20750 yuan/ton [18][20]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50072 lots, a decrease of 276 lots from the previous period [35]. - The basis of the main contract of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions shows seasonal characteristics [29][30][31]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52195 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.09%. The trading volume is 268080 lots, with a weekly decrease of 28.76%. The open interest is 145950 lots, with a weekly increase of 1.42% [36]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 6870 lots, with a weekly decrease of 0.15% [36]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of N - type polysilicon products such as N - type re - feedstock, N - type dense material, etc., have increased by about 2 - 2.5 yuan/kg in a week. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in the photovoltaic industry have also changed slightly [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data** - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 1065 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 16.39% [53]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 6870 lots, unchanged from the previous day [53].