| 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 支撑位：8000 | 27.9% | 72.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | | 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售工业硅 未来有生产工业硅的计划，担心销售工业硅时价格下跌导致销售利 润减少的风险 | | 为防止价格下跌 导致销售利润减 少，企业需在采 | 期货 | 依据生产计划卖出对应期货合约 | 40% | 根据销售利润 | | | | | 到原料的同时卖 | | | | | | | | | 出期货合约锁定 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入看跌期权 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will ease, with supply - side pressure gradually decreasing marginally. The industry is in a wide - range weak - oscillation stage with no significant driving force currently [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs. Negative factors are the decline in production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, weakening demand [4][5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of "November concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation". The market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand", and the overall risk is relatively high [7]. - Positive factors include the potential for an industry capacity integration and clearance plan to improve the industrial pattern. Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the plan fails to materialize [8]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-1.10%) daily and 200 yuan (-2.18%) weekly. The trading volume is 304,628 lots, up 32,817 lots (12.07%) daily but down 22,146 lots (-6.78%) weekly. The open interest is 248,019 lots, down 3,530 lots (-1.40%) daily and 22,940 lots (-8.47%) weekly [9]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots (-2.92%) daily and 2,233 lots (-4.83%) weekly [9]. 2. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions show different trends. For example, the price of 99 and 553 in Xinjiang remains unchanged, while the price of 553 in Tianjin drops by 50 yuan (-0.53%) daily and weekly [16]. - The price of organic silicon DMC rises by 1,600 yuan (14.35%) weekly, while the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 drops by 100 yuan (-0.46%) daily and 50 yuan (-0.23%) weekly [16]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots from the previous period, with a decline rate of 7.32%. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses show different changes [27]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,210 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan (-0.85%) daily but up 280 yuan (0.54%) weekly. The trading volume is 173,704 lots, down 76,062 lots (-30.45%) daily and 150,894 lots (-46.49%) weekly. The open interest is 137,091 lots, up 848 lots (0.62%) daily but down 1,377 lots (-0.99%) weekly [28]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots (0.9%) daily but down 1,660 lots (-16.85%) weekly [28]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon shows little change. For example, the price of N - type re - feeding material is 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan (0.19%) [41]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers drops. The silicon wafer price index is 1.27 yuan/piece, down 0.03 yuan (-3.00%) daily and 0.02 yuan (-2.00%) weekly [43]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 655 yuan/ton, up 1,390 yuan (-67.97%) daily and 1,065 yuan (-61.92%) weekly [53]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots from the previous day [53].

Group 1 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) held a high-level training program for government officials from eight provinces, focusing on futures and derivatives business [1] - The training included ten core modules covering political theory, international macroeconomic analysis, futures market development, and risk management practices [1][2] - The program aimed to enhance the capabilities of officials in supporting enterprises to utilize futures tools effectively, aligning with the Party's theoretical education [1][3] Group 2 - China's futures market has developed a strong foundation to serve the real economy, with significant trading volumes in various commodities ranking among the top globally [2] - In the first ten months of this year, 1,737 listed companies announced plans to participate in the futures market, marking a 10.8% increase year-on-year [2] - Risk management has become essential for enterprises, with many companies establishing comprehensive systems and teams to utilize futures markets as part of their strategic planning [2][3] Group 3 - Hedging practices have evolved from simple risk management to comprehensive tools for integrating business operations, allowing companies to proactively manage risks [3] - The futures market provides a fair pricing mechanism that enhances risk management flexibility for enterprises [3] - Participants in the training expressed that the program deepened their understanding of the futures market's functions and practical applications, laying a foundation for better policy formulation and industry regulation [3][4] Group 4 - The ZCE has conducted multiple training sessions across various provinces this year, marking its first high-level, cross-regional training for government officials [4] - The ZCE plans to continue innovating its initiatives to support the construction of a modern industrial system and strengthen the real economy [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually peak, and the pressure on the supply side will gradually ease marginally. The industry is still in a stage of wide - range weak oscillation, and there is no significant driving force at present [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term trading main line of the polysilicon market revolves around whether the November storage platform will be established, and then will gradually shift to the expectation game of "November concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation". The overall risk level is relatively high [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, the low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China during the wet season is about to end, and the furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of inventory accumulation will be alleviated. On the demand side, the demand from the organic silicon industry is limited, the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy field is stable, and the demand from polysilicon enterprises is expected to decrease [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The "anti - involution" policy releases a positive signal, and the short - term downward space of the cost side is limited, with a relatively low profit valuation [4][5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The output of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises has declined, weakening the demand side [5]. - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 9145 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.54% and a weekly increase of 0.88%. The trading volume and open interest have increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have shown little daily change, with some slight weekly increases. The prices of downstream products such as trichlorosilane and polysilicon N - type price index have also shown little change [16]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 45387 lots, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous day. The warehouse receipt inventories in various delivery warehouses have also changed to varying degrees [27]. Polysilicon - **Core Logic**: The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price are whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation in November, whether the winning bid price of demand - side components can rise stably, and whether the photovoltaic competitive - bidding on - grid electricity price can increase. The current market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand" [7]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The industry may introduce a production capacity integration and clearance plan, which is expected to improve the industrial pattern if implemented [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: If the production capacity integration and clearance plan fails to be implemented, inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [8]. - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 54195 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.37% and a weekly increase of 1.50%. The trading volume of the main contract has decreased, while the open interest has increased [28]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products in the photovoltaic industry chain have shown little daily change, with some slight weekly decreases [41][43]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data**: The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 2235 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 49.00% and a weekly increase of 60.22%. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9130 lots, a decrease of 720 lots from the previous day [53]. Silicon Industry Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - **Selling Industrial Silicon**: To prevent price decline and profit reduction, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts according to the production plan (hedging ratio: 40%) or buy put options and sell call options (hedging ratio: 20%) [2]. - **Purchasing Industrial Silicon**: When the finished product price has no correlation, to prevent cost increase, enterprises can buy corresponding futures contracts (hedging ratio: 20%) or sell put options (hedging ratio: 10%); when the finished product price is correlated, to prevent inventory impairment, enterprises can sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress (hedging ratio: 40%) or buy put options and sell call options (hedging ratio: 40%) [2]. - **Inventory Management**: To prevent inventory depreciation, enterprises can sell the main futures contract (hedging ratio: 40%) or sell call options (hedging ratio: 10%) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to show an "oscillating and strengthening" trend within the range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton in the next month. If the lithium ore gap cannot be replenished, the price may break through 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - On the lithium ore side, the expected increase in the number of lithium concentrates arriving at ports this month can ease the tight situation. The release of salt - lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. The demand side is currently strong, with the prices of core battery materials rising, and the downstream production scheduling in November remains highly prosperous, which will maintain strong demand for lithium salts and intensify the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. National industrial policies are expected to support the demand for lithium salts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 85,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 29.4% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 45.1% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,560 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0, a daily环比 of 0.00%, a weekly change of - 4,340 yuan/ton, and a weekly环比 of - 5.24%. Other contract data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads between different contracts are also provided [8]. - **Options and Other Data**: Information on estimated volume totals, option contract data for different months (including opening, high, low, last, change, settle, estimated volume, and prior - day open interest) are presented [22][23]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The daily average prices of different types of lithium ores (lithium mica, lithium spodumene, etc.) with different Li₂O contents are given, along with their daily and weekly changes. The exchange rate of the US dollar to the RMB is also provided [27]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and their daily and weekly changes are presented. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea) is also included [30]. - **Price Spreads**: Spreads such as the difference between electric - carbon and industrial - carbon, electric - carbon and electric - hydrogen, and the difference between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [37]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The daily prices of downstream products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes, and their changes are presented [38][39]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The main - continuous basis of lithium carbonate and the basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands are provided [41][43]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The seasonal data and the quantity data of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts (including the total and for different warehouses) are presented, along with their daily changes [44][46]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), import profit, and theoretical delivery profit are presented, with their historical trends shown [47][48][49]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with battery material production plans, different hedging strategies are recommended according to whether the product price is correlated with the raw material price. The hedging tools include futures and on - and off - exchange options, with different hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises with lithium carbonate production plans can use futures and options to hedge against the risk of price decline during sales. Different hedging ratios are recommended based on different situations [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories can use futures and options to hedge against the risk of inventory depreciation, with recommended hedging ratios and price levels [2].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Macro Properties (宏安地产) and Wang On Group (WANG ON GROUP) involves the purchase of a life insurance policy to mitigate potential financial risks associated with the death of a key executive, Mr. Deng Haokang [1] Group 1: Insurance Policy Details - The insurance policy was finalized on November 4, 2025, with the insurer being Manulife Financial [1] - The initial premium paid by the policyholder, Twist Pioneer, is approximately $4.85 million (around HKD 37.73 million) [1] - Mr. Deng Haokang is the insured party, and Twist Pioneer is both the policyholder and beneficiary [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The boards of Macro Properties and Wang On Group believe that the insurance policy may assist in refinancing and negotiating bank loan financing [1] - The policy is expected to generate positive returns starting from the end of the fourth year, with guaranteed cash value of $4 million (approximately HKD 31.12 million) and non-guaranteed end-of-term dividends of about $1.124 million (approximately HKD 8.745 million) [1] - By the end of the 25th year, the policy will provide a guaranteed cash value of $5 million (approximately HKD 38.90 million) [1]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will show an "oscillating and strengthening" trend in the range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton in the next month. If the lithium ore gap cannot be filled in time, the price may break through 85,000 yuan/ton [5]. - On the lithium ore side, the expected increase in the quantity of imported lithium concentrates this month can ease the supply tightness. The release of salt lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will directly expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices. The current demand is strong, and the prices of core battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are rising, indicating the demand toughness for lithium carbonate. The high - prosperity production schedule in November will maintain the strong demand for lithium salts, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. The downstream demand of lithium battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which will support the spot price of lithium carbonate [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The 20 - day rolling volatility of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 30.0%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 45.1%. The strong pressure level of the LC2601 contract is 85,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Contract Information**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,560 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 3,720 yuan (- 4.52%) and a weekly decrease of 3,080 yuan (- 3.77%). The trading volume is 975,978 lots, with a daily increase of 389,310 lots (66.36%) and a weekly increase of 246,671 lots (33.82%). The open interest is 457,374 lots, with a daily decrease of 67,810 lots (- 12.91%) and a weekly decrease of 31,429 lots (- 6.43%) [8]. - **Spread Information**: LC2601 - LC2603 is 100 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 420 yuan (- 80.77%) and a weekly decrease of 640 yuan (- 86.49%); LC2601 - LC2605 is - 500 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 580 yuan (- 725.00%) and a weekly decrease of 740 yuan (- 308.33%); LC2603 - LC2605 is - 600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (36.36%) and a weekly increase of 100 yuan (20.00%) [8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 26,490 lots, with a daily decrease of 800 lots (- 2.93%) and a weekly decrease of 845 lots (- 3.09%) [8]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores have different degrees of decline. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,115 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 35 yuan (- 1.63%) and a weekly increase of 50 yuan (2.42%) [26]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan (- 0.13%) and a weekly increase of 2,400 yuan (3.15%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan (- 0.12%) and a weekly increase of 2,400 yuan (3.06%) [29]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have different changes. For example, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 36,025 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 25 yuan (- 0.07%) [38]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Information**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands vary. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2601) is - 100 yuan, and the four - material comprehensive basis quote (LC2601) is - 225 yuan [42]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,490 lots, a decrease of 800 lots compared with yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as a decrease of 150 lots in Xiangyu Speed - Pass Shanghai and 440 lots in Suining Tiancheng [45]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore, including the production profit from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate [46][47][49]. 5. Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce battery materials in the future, if they are worried about the increase in procurement costs due to rising lithium carbonate prices, they can buy corresponding futures contracts or sell put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 20%, and the recommended entry range is below 73,000 yuan for futures and LC2512 - P - 73000 for options [2]. - **Sales Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce lithium carbonate in the future, if they are worried about the decrease in sales profits due to falling prices, they can sell corresponding futures contracts or buy put options and sell call options to lock in sales profits. The hedging ratio for futures is 40%, and 20% for options [2]. - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories, if they are worried about inventory depreciation due to falling prices, they can sell futures contracts or call options to lock in inventory value. The hedging ratio for futures is 60% (above 83,000 yuan), and 30% for call options (LC2601 - C - 83000) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply - The low - electricity - price environment in the southwest region during the wet season is ending, and the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate in the southwest region is expected to slow down and decline. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected, showing a slow - down trend. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the supply - side pressure will gradually ease [4]. - Demand - The operating rate of the organic silicon industry has slowed down, with limited actual demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the recycled aluminum alloy sector remains stable, and the demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook - If the supply - side operating rate enters the downward channel as expected and the downstream polysilicon demand improves substantially, the oversupply situation in the industrial silicon market will ease, and the industry may reach a key node for a price bottom - reversal [4]. Polysilicon - Market Logic - The short - term trading focus is on whether the October photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the "November concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation" expectation game. The market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand" [9][10]. - Risk - The volatility of polysilicon futures is much higher than that of lithium carbonate and industrial silicon, with a relatively high overall risk level. Investors are advised to participate cautiously and control positions and hedge risks [10]. Summary by Directory I. Futures Data Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 220 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.59%. The trading volume is 172346 lots, with a daily increase of 66824 lots and a daily increase rate of 63.33%. The open interest is 76195 lots, with a daily decrease of 20359 lots and a daily decrease rate of 21.09% [12][13]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48371 lots, with a daily decrease of 367 lots and a daily decrease rate of 0.75% [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 450 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.89%. The trading volume is 86148 lots, with a daily decrease of 14344 lots and a daily decrease rate of 14.27%. The open interest is 45407 lots, with a daily decrease of 3609 lots and a daily decrease rate of 7.36% [37]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 9220 lots, with a daily decrease of 80 lots and a daily decrease rate of 0.9% [37]. II. Spot Data Industrial Silicon - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.57%. The price of 421 industrial silicon in Tianjin is 9800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.51% [21]. - The price of industrial silicon powder (553) is 9950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.50% [21]. Polysilicon - The price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material is 53 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.25 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.47% [46]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers (G10 - 182, 130um) is 1.35 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [46]. III. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Industrial Silicon - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48371 lots, with a decrease of 367 lots compared with the previous period and a decrease rate of 0.56% [36]. - The basis of the industrial silicon main contract in East China (553) and (421) shows certain seasonal characteristics [30][31][32]. Polysilicon - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 2000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 450 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 18.37%, and a weekly increase of 1915 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 2252.94% [56]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9300 lots, with a decrease of 80 lots compared with the previous period [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply - The end of the low - electricity - price period in Southwest China during the wet season will slow down and potentially reduce the growth rate of ore - heating furnace start - up rates. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also below expectations. Overall, the overall start - up rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will ease, reducing supply - side pressure [4]. - Demand - The organic silicon industry's start - up rate is slowing, with limited actual demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the recycled aluminum alloy sector remains stable and is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The polysilicon sector is expected to see a steady increase in demand for industrial silicon in the next two months as enterprise profit conditions improve and production schedules increase in October [4]. - Market Outlook - The supply - side incremental space is expected to narrow. Key signals to watch are whether the supply - side start - up rate enters a downward channel and whether the downstream polysilicon demand improves. If both conditions are met, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point. The details and implementation of polysilicon industry integration measures are crucial variables [4][6]. Polysilicon - Core Influencing Factors - The core factors determining the polysilicon futures price are the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November, the stability and increase of component bid - winning prices on the demand side, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected power prices [9]. - Market Outlook - The short - term trading focus is on whether the storage platform will be established in October, and then it will shift to the expectation game of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November. The high volatility of polysilicon futures implies high risks, and investors are advised to be cautious [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8505 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 0.70%) and a weekly decrease of 15 yuan (- 0.18%). The trading volume is 188,642 lots, down 1,690 lots (- 0.89%) daily and 98,635 lots (- 34.33%) weekly. The open interest is 107,518 lots, down 6,718 lots (- 5.88%) daily and 55,156 lots (- 33.91%) weekly [12][13]. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 100 yuan (- 1.13%) weekly. The price of 553 in Xinjiang is also 8750 yuan/ton, with the same daily and weekly changes. The prices of different grades and regions show various trends, and the price of downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, etc., also have corresponding changes [21]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48,851 lots, down 452 lots (- 0.79%) compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different delivery warehouses have different changes, such as a 0.3 - million - ton decrease in the Kunming delivery warehouse (weekly) [35]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 375 yuan (0.74%) and a weekly increase of 725 yuan (1.45%). The trading volume is 121,870 lots, down 28,902 lots (- 19.17%) daily and 175,833 lots (- 59.06%) weekly. The open interest is 52,237 lots, down 4,569 lots (- 8.04%) daily and 29,151 lots (- 35.82%) weekly [36]. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon, including N - type re - feeding material, N - type dense material, etc., shows different degrees of increase. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also have corresponding changes [45]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 1975 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan (- 15.96%) daily and 685 yuan (- 25.75%) weekly. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9290 lots, an increase of 140 lots compared to the previous day [55].

Core Insights - The training session held in Xiamen aimed to enhance risk management capabilities of local companies through the use of futures and derivatives, aligning with the government's directive to support high-quality economic development [1][5] Group 1: Training Overview - The training adopted a comprehensive teaching model that included policy interpretation, case analysis, and practical tools, featuring six experts discussing key topics such as the current participation of listed companies in the futures market and risk management strategies [2][3] - Approximately 130 executives and relevant personnel from listed companies, New Third Board companies, and industrial enterprises attended the training to explore practical paths for utilizing futures derivatives in risk management [1][2] Group 2: Market Participation and Trends - The participation level of listed companies in hedging activities has been increasing, with 1,503 companies expected to release hedging announcements in 2024, representing a participation rate of 28.6% [2] - In the first eight months of 2025, 1,235 companies announced futures and derivatives business, with 397 companies engaging in commodity futures hedging, accounting for 32.15% [2] Group 3: Expert Insights - Experts emphasized the importance of integrating options into risk management, showcasing how companies can optimize procurement costs and enhance sales revenue through strategic use of options [3] - A case study highlighted how a steel company successfully locked in processing profits by optimizing procurement prices through a combination of basis and options [3] Group 4: Service Initiatives by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has launched various initiatives to support local industries, including the establishment of delivery warehouses to reduce costs and the implementation of service projects to facilitate participation in the futures market [5][6] - ZCE has listed 27 futures and 20 options products, creating a comprehensive product system that covers various sectors, including polyester and salt chemicals [5][6] Group 5: Feedback from Participants - Participants expressed enthusiasm for the training, noting that the content addressed industry pain points and provided practical pathways for utilizing futures derivatives [7] - Companies indicated a desire to deepen their application of futures tools, with some planning to optimize their hedging approval processes based on the training insights [7]