Summary of TMP Industry Insights Industry Overview - The document discusses the TMP (Trimethylolpropane) industry, focusing on supply and demand dynamics, as well as pricing trends. Key Points Supply Side Dynamics - The industry is experiencing capacity exits and shutdowns, with domestic manufacturers like Wanhua expected to exit and shut down approximately 100,000 tons/year of capacity by 2025 [1] - Overseas production is also affected, with Swedish company Perstorp's 50,000 tons/year capacity undergoing maintenance, expected to last until May 2026 [1] Demand Side Dynamics - There is a strong replenishment demand from downstream sectors, as inventory levels have reached zero [1] - Previously, TMP product prices were declining, leading to weak replenishment willingness; however, current conditions have resulted in zero inventory levels [1] Price Trends - The price of TMP has seen a significant increase, with Baichuan raising the TMP price to 15,000 yuan/ton as of February 9, 2026, with actual transactions occurring at this price [2] - Experts anticipate further price increases post-Chinese New Year due to widespread downstream holidays [3] Raw Material Costs - The price of key raw material, n-butyraldehyde, continues to rise, while calcium formate prices have decreased, leading to increased cost pressures for calcium-based manufacturers [2] Future Expectations - Experts predict that domestic companies will likely coordinate maintenance efforts, which will further drive prices upward [4] - Continuous monitoring of industry developments is planned to assess ongoing changes [5] Additional Information - The document invites further inquiries for detailed expert opinions or one-on-one discussions with the Dongwu Chemical team [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center of gravity to continue to move down. This year's winter storage is relatively sluggish, providing weak support for prices. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The short - process construction steel production enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region mostly stopped production and overhauled from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. During the shutdown period, it is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. Among the 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, 1 steel mill started to stop production on January 5th, and most of the other steel mills said they would stop production and take holidays around mid - January, and individual steel mills are expected to stop production after January 20th. The daily output affected during the shutdown period is about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [4] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price adjusted downward. The Federal Reserve kept the target interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%, but indicated that the risks of rising inflation and unemployment have increased, and the outlook for the US economy remains unclear. The domestic central bank announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate [3] - In April 2025 (30 days), the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.6% year - on - year and decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. In May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to be carried out in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. Recently, some enterprises have carried out capacity overhauls, and SMM learned that they mostly use the method of small - batch and rotating overhauls, which has little impact on the supply side [4] - Before the festival, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% compared with the previous week and decreased by 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable operating rate, which continued to rise due to strong grid orders, the operating rates of other sectors all declined to varying degrees. Overall, the traditional peak season for aluminum downstream is coming to an end, and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand and overseas trade frictions will put double pressure on the downstream operating rate. Attention should be paid to grid investment, new photovoltaic policies, and the rhythm of tariff transmission [4] - According to SMM statistics, on May 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 636,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared with last Monday [4] - With domestic macro - support, the Federal Reserve in the overseas market has suspended interest rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating the increase in "uncertainty". Fundamentally, the downstream is gradually approaching the end of the peak season, and the upward pressure on prices is increasing. The relatively low inventory in the short term provides certain support. Pay attention to the subsequent inventory performance, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures have shown a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 7546.00 yuan and currently trading at 7520.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.69% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Wenkang Futures, the short-term outlook for styrene is viewed as a bottom rebound, supported by a significant drop in weekly production and inventory adjustments [2] - The recent announcement by Trump to suspend reciprocal tariff policies for most economies (excluding China) has temporarily alleviated macroeconomic concerns, allowing for potential price increases in the styrene market [2] - The supply side is experiencing a reduction in production due to maintenance, with 210,000 tons of capacity undergoing repairs, which is expected to support prices in the short term [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ruida Futures, the supply side has seen a 6.64% decrease in styrene production to 313,400 tons, with a corresponding drop in capacity utilization by 4.87% to 68.41% [3] - Demand from downstream sectors has weakened, with a 6.21% decrease in consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS to 243,000 tons [3] - Inventory levels have shown mixed trends, with factory inventory increasing by 11.30% to 228,300 tons, while East China port inventory decreased by 18.83% to 119,000 tons [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Wenkang Futures maintains a bearish view for the medium to long term, anticipating a price correction as production resumes in late May and early June amid ongoing trade tensions [2] - Ruida Futures highlights that the negative impact from end-user demand is expected to gradually affect upstream prices, indicating potential for a price decline in the future [3]