Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reported a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in coal prices, despite a year-on-year increase in revenue [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 20.428 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.12% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.904 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 16.62% [2]. - The coal mining business revenue decreased by 18.99% to 2.887 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous metal business revenue increased by 20.79% to 14.182 billion yuan [3]. Production and Sales - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. maintained a balance between production and sales for its main products in the first half of 2025, with aluminum production at 871,100 tons and sales at 871,400 tons, both achieving around 51% of the annual plan [3]. - Coal production was 3.7078 million tons with sales of 3.7275 million tons, also around 51% of the annual plan [3]. - The company’s coal reserves were reported at 1.308 billion tons, with a recoverable reserve of 605 million tons [3]. Share Buyback - The board approved a share buyback plan on December 30, 2024, with a budget of 250 million to 450 million yuan, at a price not exceeding 20 yuan per share [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had repurchased 15.4204 million shares, accounting for 0.686% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of 255 million yuan [4]. Business Developments - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has no current plans for overseas expansion due to high investment risks and long payback periods [5][6]. - The company invested 186 million yuan in Anhui Xiangbang Composite Materials Co., acquiring a 35% stake, aiming to enhance the value and technology of aluminum processing products [6]. Market Outlook - The coal market is expected to experience a supply-demand balance and potential price stabilization in the second half of 2025, driven by national growth policies [6]. - The company anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high in the second half of 2025 due to government initiatives in key industries [6]. - The aluminum foil industry is facing increased competition, which is impacting profit margins for the company’s aluminum processing business [6].

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated July 30, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (urea, industrial silicon), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [4] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601 opened at 7420 yuan/ton, closed at 7438 yuan/ton, with a high of 7446 yuan/ton, a low of 7408 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan/ton (0.20%), a position of 162,615, and a position change of 4769 [5] - Plastic 2605 opened at 7396 yuan/ton, closed at 7425 yuan/ton, with a high of 7432 yuan/ton, a low of 7396 yuan/ton, a rise of 9 yuan/ton (0.12%), a position of 7457, and a position change of 121 [5] - Plastic 2509 opened at 7341 yuan/ton, closed at 7385 yuan/ton, with a high of 7396 yuan/ton, a low of 7341 yuan/ton, a rise of 18 yuan/ton (0.24%), a position of 343,620, and a position change of -2781 [5] - PP2601 opened at 7140 yuan/ton, closed at 7166 yuan/ton, with a high of 7172 yuan/ton, a low of 7140 yuan/ton, a rise of 11 yuan/ton (0.15%), a position of 180,054, and a position change of 14,101 [5] - PP2605 opened at 7148 yuan/ton, closed at 7158 yuan/ton, with a high of 7163 yuan/ton, a low of 7138 yuan/ton, a rise of 0 yuan/ton (0.00%), a position of 9836, and a position change of 255 [5] - PP2509 opened at 7139 yuan/ton, closed at 7160 yuan/ton, with a high of 7165 yuan/ton, a low of 7130 yuan/ton, a rise of 13 yuan/ton (0.18%), a position of 308,754, and a position change of -17,048 [5] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - L2509 opened lower, fluctuated upwards during the session, and closed at 7385 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.24%), with a trading volume of 240,000 lots and a position decrease of 2781 to 343,620 lots [6] - The PP main contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.18%), with a position decrease of 17,048 lots to 308,800 lots [6] - The futures market opened lower and fluctuated higher, while the spot market trading atmosphere was average. Traders' quotes had narrow fluctuations, and most delivery prices at the end of the month were stable. Downstream buyers replenished stocks on a need - to - basis [6] - The supply - demand pattern has not improved. The supply side shows an increasing trend as the planned maintenance capacity decreases and some previous units restart. The Ningbo Daxie Phase II project is planned to be put into production [6] - On the consumption side, the demand for agricultural films is at a seasonal low. The operating rates of pipes and plastic weaving are stable. Orders in the daily chemical and food sectors have slightly improved, but the production order days have extended, and downstream buyers have limited ability to accept high prices, leading to an increase in commercial inventories [6] - After the short - term market sentiment is digested, the market will face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of specific plans for stable growth [6] Group 5: Industry News - On July 29, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (3.70%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 740,000 tons [7] - PE market prices had narrow fluctuations. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7180 - 7420 yuan/ton, in East China were 7270 - 7550 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7400 - 7650 yuan/ton [7] - The price of the Shandong propylene market rose slightly, closing at 6190 - 6250 yuan/ton as of 12:00, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The rebound of international oil prices was positive for market sentiment. Enterprises' inventories were controllable, and their quotes mainly increased. Downstream buyers followed up as needed, and the actual transaction prices rose slightly [7] - The PP market was narrowly sorted. In the morning, the mainstream quotes for drawn PP in North China were 7000 - 7120 yuan/ton, in East China were 7070 - 7170 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][14][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is positive, influenced by policies such as "anti - involution" and the expected release of key industry stability and growth plans. However, different sectors have different outlooks based on their specific fundamentals [6][11]. - In the short term, the market style may shift from small - and medium - cap stocks to large - and medium - cap stocks. For the bond market, although the long - term trend of interest rates is downward, the recent strong performance of commodities and the stock market has suppressed the bond market [3][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - Macro news includes the release of the "Rural Highway Regulations", the establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd., coal stock surges due to production checks, and net foreign capital inflows into domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [2]. - The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided. The trading logic suggests that the market style may shift, and it is recommended to go long on IF index futures at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. Foreign capital has been increasing its allocation of RMB assets, and the scale of foreign investment in RMB bonds is at a historically high level. The human resources department will promote pension - related reforms [4]. - The central bank conducted 2148 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2477 billion yuan. The economic data in the second quarter was resilient, and the central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy. The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw [5][6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold and silver prices rose, while COMEX gold fell slightly and COMEX silver rose. The statements of Fed officials have affected the precious metals market. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US dollar index is weak, and the commodity sentiment is positive, driving up copper prices. However, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the downstream is in a relatively off - season. The implementation of US copper tariffs may pose a downward risk to copper prices. Reference price ranges are provided for Shanghai copper and LME copper [10][11]. Aluminum - The rise of black - series commodities has led to an increase in aluminum prices. Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, it is expected to accumulate due to the off - season and weak export demand. Reference price ranges are provided for domestic and LME aluminum [12]. Zinc - In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, the dovish Fed atmosphere and the strong commodity sentiment may lead to a short - term upward trend in zinc prices [13]. Lead - The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the demand is affected by anti - dumping tariffs. It is expected that the domestic lead price will be weak [15][16]. Nickel - The short - term macro - environment is positive, but the stainless - steel inventory is high, and the demand for nickel is weak. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - The supply of tin is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the short - term supply of raw materials is still tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges provided [18]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium has increased. The "anti - involution" policy has affected the market sentiment, but the fundamental improvement is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [19][20]. Alumina - The price of alumina has increased. The policy of "eliminating backward production capacity" has boosted the market sentiment, but the over - capacity situation may still exist. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [21]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel has increased slightly, but the supply exceeds demand, and the market sentiment has cooled. The anti - involution policy has boosted the industry's willingness to support prices, but the fundamental situation has not improved significantly [22]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly. The downstream is in an off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The cost support has strengthened, but the price may face difficulties in continuous increase [23]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have increased. The start of the Motuo Hydropower Station project has increased the demand expectation for building materials. The supply - side reform and low inventory levels may support the price increase. Attention should be paid to policy signals and terminal demand [25][26]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore has increased. The high demand for iron water and low overseas ore arrivals have supported the price. The "anti - involution" policy has also boosted the market sentiment. The ore price may remain strong in the short - term [27][28]. Glass and Soda Ash - The price of glass has increased due to policy support and inventory reduction. The price of soda ash has also increased in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction still exists. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities later [29][30]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have increased due to the coal market rally. The fundamental situation of the alloy market is still bearish, but the short - term market sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [31][32]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has increased. The supply of industrial silicon is still excessive, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market and consider hedging for the industrial side [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The prices of NR and RU have risen. The rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises have changed, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on rubber prices in the medium - term and be cautious in the short - term [38][39][41]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil have declined. The fundamental market is healthy, but the seasonal demand in August may limit the upward space. A target price for WTI in September is provided, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [42][44]. Methanol - The price of methanol has increased. The market is driven by news, and the volatility has increased. The supply and demand are expected to be weak in the future. It is recommended to wait and see after the sharp increase [45]. Urea - The price of urea has increased. The domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom but limited upside. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [46]. Styrene - The spot price of styrene has increased, and the futures price has decreased, with a strengthening basis. The cost - side support is strong, and the BZN spread may be repaired. It is expected that the styrene price will follow the cost - side fluctuations [47]. PVC - The price of PVC has increased. The fundamental situation has improved slightly, but the supply and demand and valuation still face pressure. The short - term trend is strong due to anti - dumping extension and market sentiment [49]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol has increased. The supply and demand situation is changing, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term valuation has upward support, but the fundamental situation may turn weak in the future [50]. PTA - The price of PTA has increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [51]. Para - Xylene - The price of para - xylene has increased. The short - term negative feedback from the downstream is small, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - The futures price of PE has increased. The cost - side support has returned, but the demand is in an off - season. The price may maintain a downward trend in a volatile manner [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The futures price of PP has increased. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and it is expected that the price will be bearish in July. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price has generally declined. The short - term supply is limited, and the price may rise again in August. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may increase. It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 09 contract and consider hedging or short - selling for the 11 contract [56]. Eggs - The egg price has mostly stabilized, with some increases and decreases. The supply pressure has eased, but the high - premium situation makes the market lack a clear trend. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds for the 09 and later contracts [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans is expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic soybean import cost is affected by trade relations. The domestic soybean meal market has both long and short factors. It is recommended to go long at the low end of the cost range and wait for new drivers [58][59]. Oils and Fats - The price of palm oil has continued to rise. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the high - yield expectation and other factors limit the upward space. It is recommended to view the market as volatile [60][62]. Sugar - The price of sugar has declined slightly. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder has decreased, but the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. It is expected that the price of Zhengzhou sugar will continue to decline [63]. Cotton - The price of cotton has increased slightly. The US cotton growth situation is good, and the downstream consumption is average. The potential issuance of import quotas may be a negative factor. The price has reflected some positive expectations [64][65].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term observation for both the finished product and raw material sectors [3] Group 2: Core View - Macro - level positive news has continuously emerged, significantly boosting market sentiment, while the industry's fundamentals are relatively average, especially with little change in downstream demand [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Cost and Profit - On July 21, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,317 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase compared to last Friday; the average profit was - 69 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 34 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan/ton increase compared to last Friday [3] Steel Price - On July 21, the ex - factory tax - included price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20, reaching 3,060 yuan/ton [3] Shipbuilding Data - From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 24.13 million deadweight tons, a 3.5% year - on - year decrease; the new order volume was 44.33 million deadweight tons, an 18.2% year - on - year decrease; as of the end of June, the order backlog was 234.54 million deadweight tons, a 36.7% year - on - year increase [3] Market Performance - Over the weekend, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that it would introduce a growth - stabilizing plan, and the China Iron and Steel Association stated that it would study and establish a new capacity governance mechanism. The black series started to rise on Friday night and continued the upward trend yesterday. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils reached new highs since the rebound, with an increase in trading volume and open interest [3]