2026.02.27 本文字数：1042，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 林靖 目前，已有多个省份公布了去年的人口数据。 根据海南省统计局公布的《2025年海南省国民经济和社会发展统计公报》，2025年末全省常住人口1055 万人，比上年末增加7万人。常住人口城镇化率64.08%，比上年提高1.00个百分点。 广东省统计局公布的数据显示，2025年末，广东全省常住人口12859万人，比上年末增加79万人。全年 出生人口100.3万人，人口出生率为7.82‰；死亡人口71.3万人，人口死亡率为5.56‰；人口自然增长29 万人，人口自然增长率为2.26‰。2025年城镇人口占常住人口比重（城镇化率）为76.58%，比上年末提 高0.67个百分点。 在出生人口方面，广东已连续6年成为全国唯一出生人口超百万的省份，连续8年蝉联"第一生育大省"。 一般而言，较高的人口出生率往往对应着较低的城镇化率。而第一经济大省广东是个例外。广东城镇化 率位居全国第四，出生率长期处于全国前列。这一定程度上受到了传统生育文化的影响，同时东莞、广 州、佛山等地的多个村社纷纷出台生育奖励政策，进一步鼓励生娃。 此外，广西、贵州和甘肃 ...

目前，已有多个省份公布了去年的人口数据。 根据海南省统计局公布的《2025年海南省国民经济和社会发展统计公报》，2025年末全省常住人口1055 万人，比上年末增加7万人。常住人口城镇化率64.08%，比上年提高1.00个百分点。 广东省统计局公布的数据显示，2025年末，广东全省常住人口12859万人，比上年末增加79万人。全年 出生人口100.3万人，人口出生率为7.82‰；死亡人口71.3万人，人口死亡率为5.56‰；人口自然增长29 万人，人口自然增长率为2.26‰。2025年城镇人口占常住人口比重（城镇化率）为76.58%，比上年末提 高0.67个百分点。 此外，辽宁和湖北去年也成为人口净流入的省份。根据辽宁媒体报道，去年辽宁省省际常住人口净流入 4.5万人。 在湖北，过去一年，湖北经济总量达6.27万亿元，增长5.5%，增速居全国第五；高新技术产业增加值占 GDP比重达23%；同时成为中部唯一人口净流入省份。 此外，广西、贵州和甘肃也已发布2025年的人口数据。其中，2025年年末，广西全区常住人口4989万 人，比上年末减少24万人。人口出生率为7.20‰，人口死亡率为8.10‰，人口自然增长率 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decline in Mongolia's birth rate, with a total of 56,695 births in 2025, representing a decrease of 3,519 births or 5.8% from the previous year [1] Birth Statistics - The number of births in Mongolia for 2025 is reported at 56,695, which is a reduction of 3,519 births compared to the previous year, indicating a 5.8% decline [1] - Out of the total births, 2,558 (4.5%) were born abroad, while 54,137 (95.5%) were born domestically [1] - The birth rate per 1,000 people is recorded at 16.3‰, with certain regions such as Ulaanbaatar, Bayankhongor, Khovd, Orkhon, and Darkhan showing higher birth rates than the national average by 0.7‰ to 5.4‰ [1] - Conversely, other provinces exhibit lower birth rates than the national average, ranging from 0.4‰ to 9.1‰ below the average [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Province continues to lead in birth rates and population growth, with significant government initiatives aimed at supporting families and encouraging childbirth [3][4]. Group 1: Population Growth and Birth Rates - Guangdong has maintained its status as the top province for births for eight consecutive years, with a total population that ranks first nationally [4]. - The province's urbanization rate is the fourth highest in the country, yet it still achieves a high birth rate, indicating a unique demographic structure [4]. - The influx of young migrants contributes to a high proportion of individuals of childbearing age, particularly in cities like Shenzhen, where 79.53% of the population is aged 5-59 years [4]. Group 2: Government Initiatives and Cultural Factors - The government plans to add 500,000 public school places in basic education and implement a free education policy for one year of preschool, benefiting 1.68 million children [3]. - Traditional family values and a strong emphasis on intergenerational inheritance in Guangdong foster a higher willingness to have children [5]. - Various communities in Guangdong, including Dongguan, Guangzhou, and Foshan, have introduced financial incentives and rewards for families to encourage childbirth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in China's birth rate and its implications for the country's demographic structure and global population share, predicting that the proportion of newborns in China may fall below 7% of the global total by 2025 [4][10][45]. Group 1: Birth Rate Decline - China's newborn population is projected to be around 8.71 million in 2025, marking a decrease in its share of global newborns to below 7% [4][10]. - The proportion of newborns in China has drastically decreased from nearly 25% in the early years of the People's Republic to about 17% today, and is expected to drop further [7][10]. - Historical data shows that the peak of China's newborn population share was 27.3% in 1964, which has steadily declined over the decades [14][10]. Group 2: Population Structure Changes - As of 2023, it is estimated that India's population has surpassed China's, making China the second most populous country [11]. - The total fertility rate in China has fallen significantly, with estimates showing it dropped to around 1.15 in 2021 and below 1.1 since 2022, which is lower than Japan's rate of 1.3 [22][24]. - Predictions indicate that if the current fertility rate persists, China's population could decrease to 1.374 billion by 2030 and further to 1.23 billion by 2050 [26][28]. Group 3: Economic and Social Implications - The high cost of raising children in China is a significant factor contributing to the declining birth rate, with average costs for raising a child from 0-17 years estimated at 630,000 yuan in urban areas [33]. - The article suggests that a declining population may lead to improved living standards and reduced environmental pressures, as fewer people could mean less resource consumption [46][47]. - Despite the potential challenges of a shrinking workforce, advancements in technology, such as AI and robotics, may provide solutions to labor shortages in the future [47].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decrease in the overall population of Chongqing in recent years, the population in the main urban area continues to grow, indicating the city's strong attraction and population aggregation ability [2][4][7]. Population Trends - The total population of Chongqing was 31.90 million at the end of 2024, with the main urban area housing 21.83 million residents, accounting for 68.43% of the total population, an increase of 0.48 percentage points since 2020 [2]. - The overall population of Chongqing has shown a declining trend, with a decrease of 219,100 people by the end of 2023 and an additional decrease of 9,600 people projected for the end of 2024 [4][5]. Demographic Challenges - Population aging is a significant factor contributing to the decline, with 8.01 million individuals aged 60 and above, resulting in an aging rate of 25.11%, which is 3.1 percentage points higher than the national average [4]. - The birth rate in Chongqing has been declining, with 191,000 births in 2024, leading to a natural population growth rate of -2.88‰ [4]. Urban Area Dynamics - The main urban area of Chongqing is characterized by a multi-center, multi-level, and multi-node urban spatial structure, comprising 21 districts and counties [2]. - The population in the main urban area has been steadily increasing, with a reported 21.12 million residents in 2020, rising to 21.83 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 43,600 people [6][7]. Economic and Employment Factors - The main urban area of Chongqing has become a major destination for population inflow due to its economic development, job opportunities, and abundant public resources, similar to the trend observed in other provinces where urban centers attract population while surrounding areas decline [7].

Core Insights - The overall population growth trend in Chongqing has turned negative in recent years, contrasting with the previous growth observed until 2022 [2] - Despite the decline in total population, the main urban area of Chongqing continues to attract residents, indicating strong urban agglomeration effects [1][4] Population Trends - As of the end of 2024, Chongqing's total population is projected to be 31.90 million, with the main urban area housing 21.83 million, accounting for 68.43% of the total population [1] - The total population of Chongqing decreased by 219,100 in 2023 and is expected to decrease by another 9,600 in 2024 [2] - The aging population is a significant factor in the decline, with 8.01 million people aged 60 and above, representing an aging rate of 25.11% [2] Birth and Death Rates - In 2024, the birth rate in Chongqing is projected to be 5.99‰, with a total of 191,000 births, while the death rate is expected to be 8.87‰, with 283,000 deaths, resulting in a natural population growth rate of -2.88‰ [3] Urban Area Dynamics - The main urban area of Chongqing has shown consistent population growth, with a recorded population of 21.12 million in 2020, increasing to 21.83 million in 2024 [4] - The center city area has experienced a population increase of 0.7%, while other regions within the urban area have seen slight declines [4] Economic and Resource Factors - The main urban area of Chongqing has become a focal point for population inflow due to its economic development, job opportunities, and abundant public resources, mirroring the trend of "province reduction and capital city increase" seen in other regions [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the dependency ratio in China, highlighting that in 2024, 15 provinces will have a total dependency ratio higher than the national average, with five provinces exceeding 50% [2][3]. Regional Population Age Structure and Dependency Ratio (2024) - The national total dependency ratio is 45.93%, with a child dependency ratio of 23.08% and an elderly dependency ratio of 22.85% [3]. - Provinces with total dependency ratios exceeding 50% include: - Guizhou: 53.37% - Guangxi: 53.08% - Shandong: 52.72% - Henan: 52.43% - Hebei: 50.2% [3][4]. - High total dependency ratios are linked to labor outflow and high proportions of children or elderly populations [3]. Future Population Dividend - Provinces like Guizhou and Guangxi have child dependency ratios above 30%, indicating potential for urbanization [4]. - 18 provinces have a child population ratio exceeding the national average of 15.81%, with 13 provinces above 17%, predominantly in the western region [4]. Guangdong Province Insights - Guangdong has a permanent urban population of 97.01 million, with an urbanization rate of 75.91%, ranking fourth nationally [5]. - The province's birth rate is 8.89‰, with 113,000 births in 2024, maintaining its status as the largest birth province for seven consecutive years [5]. - The influx of young, marriage-age individuals contributes to the province's high birth rates despite declining fertility intentions in some areas [5]. Labor Age Population Proportion - 12 provinces have a labor age population ratio exceeding 70%, including Guangdong (72.28%), which has the highest influx of labor-age individuals [6]. - The Northeast region has a low child population ratio, resulting in a lower total dependency ratio despite a relatively high labor age population [6]. Elderly Dependency Ratio - 11 provinces have an elderly dependency ratio of 25% or higher, primarily located in Northeast, Yangtze River Delta, and Bohai Rim regions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dependency ratio in China, highlighting the challenges and opportunities presented by the demographic structure across different provinces in 2024, with a focus on the implications for urbanization and economic growth [3][5]. Summary by Sections Dependency Ratio Overview - The dependency ratio, or support ratio, measures the ratio of non-working-age population to working-age population (ages 15-64). In 2024, 15 provinces had a total dependency ratio above the national average, with five provinces exceeding 50%: Guizhou, Guangxi, Shandong, Henan, and Hebei [3][5]. Provincial Analysis - The article provides a detailed breakdown of the dependency ratios across various provinces, indicating that high dependency ratios are often linked to population outflows, particularly of the working-age population, and high proportions of children or elderly individuals [5][6]. - For instance, Guizhou and Guangxi have child dependency ratios exceeding 30%, indicating potential future demographic advantages due to a larger base of young people [5]. Urbanization Potential - Provinces with high child populations and low urbanization rates, such as those in the western regions, show significant potential for urbanization. In contrast, provinces like Guangdong and Fujian, despite high urbanization rates, also maintain a substantial proportion of children in their populations [5][6]. Birth Rates and Population Trends - Guangdong has the highest urban population, with a rate of 75.91% and a birth rate of 8.89‰, leading the nation in births for seven consecutive years, with 1.13 million births in 2024 [5][6]. - The influx of young, working-age individuals into Guangdong contributes to its high labor force participation, with 72.28% of its population in the working-age group [6]. Regional Disparities - The article notes that while some provinces have high ratios of elderly dependents, such as those in Northeast China, they also have a relatively low birth rate, leading to a lower overall dependency ratio [6].

Core Insights - The overall dependency ratio in five provinces exceeds 50%, indicating a significant proportion of non-working age population compared to the working-age population [1][3] - In 2024, 15 provinces have a total dependency ratio higher than the national average, with notable figures in Guizhou, Guangxi, Shandong, Henan, and Hebei [1][2] Dependency Ratios by Region - The national total dependency ratio is 45.93%, with a breakdown of 23.08% for children and 22.85% for the elderly [2] - Provinces with the highest total dependency ratios include: - Guizhou: 53.37% (children: 33.58%, elderly: 19.79%) - Guangxi: 53.08% (children: 31.69%, elderly: 21.39%) - Shandong: 52.72% (children: 25.64%, elderly: 27.08%) - Henan: 52.43% (children: 29.51%, elderly: 22.92%) - Hebei: 50.2% (children: 25.48%, elderly: 24.72%) [2][3] Population Composition and Urbanization Potential - High total dependency ratios are linked to both out-migration of the working-age population and high proportions of children or elderly in certain provinces [3] - Provinces like Guizhou and Guangxi, despite high dependency ratios, have significant potential for urbanization due to their high child dependency ratios (over 30%) [3] Child Population Statistics - Eighteen provinces have a child population ratio exceeding the national average of 15.81%, with 13 provinces above 17%, predominantly in the western region [4] - Guangdong, despite its high urbanization rate (75.91%), has a child population ratio exceeding 17% and continues to lead in birth rates, with 1.13 million births in 2024 [4] Working-Age Population Insights - Twelve provinces have a working-age population ratio above 70%, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, Beijing, and Shanghai, which are major destinations for labor migration [5] - Guangdong has the highest working-age population ratio at 72.28%, reflecting its status as the province with the most significant inflow of young labor [5]