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宏观和大类资产配置周报:关注7月政治局会议-20250713
Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies, particularly following the recent political bureau meeting [4] - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed performance, with June CPI rising by 0.1% year-on-year and PPI declining by 3.6% [5][19] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) projects that China's economic increment during the 14th Five-Year Plan will exceed 35 trillion yuan, with an expected total economic output of around 140 trillion yuan this year [19][20] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market experienced an overall increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.82% and CSI 300 futures up by 1.75% [2][12] - Commodity futures also saw significant gains, with coking coal futures increasing by 7.00% and iron ore futures up by 3.87% [2][12] - In the bond market, the yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 2 basis points to 1.67%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.27% [2][12] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an asset allocation hierarchy favoring stocks over commodities, bonds, and cash, indicating a bullish outlook on equities [6] - The recommendation for stocks is to overweight, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [4][6] - Bonds are advised to be underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [4][6] Industry Insights - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, leading the market with a 6.06% increase, driven by supportive policies [36] - The non-bank financial sector also performed well, increasing by 3.94% [36] - The automotive industry faced a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.56%, indicating potential challenges despite overall market growth [36] Economic Policy Developments - The government has introduced new employment support policies aimed at stabilizing jobs, including expanding loan support for maintaining employment [20] - The NDRC has allocated an additional 10 billion yuan for central budget investments to promote employment among key groups [20] - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to enhance the inclusive childcare service system, which is expected to support family stability and economic growth [20]
盘前必读丨中国6月CPI今日公布;七部门发文加快推进普惠托育服务体系建设
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 23:46
机构指出,指数上攻乏力,面临较大压力。在操作上应围绕中报预告进行挖掘。 【财经日历】 大型科技股涨跌互现,英伟达、特斯拉涨超1%,奈飞、谷歌、亚马逊跌超1%。 石油股走高,斯伦贝谢涨超4%,英国石油、雪佛龙涨超3%。 铜概念股普涨,麦克莫兰铜金收涨逾2%,Taseko Mines涨逾4%。当天,特朗普表示考虑对进口到美国的铜征收50%的附加税。受此消息影响,纽约期铜一 度飙升16%。 热门中概股多数上涨,纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.71%。爱奇艺涨超3%,京东、新东方涨超2%,阿里巴巴涨1.6%。 投资者正密切关注将于当地时间本周三公布的美联储6月会议纪要,以判断利率政策走向。市场预期美联储最快或在秋季开启降息周期。 09:30 中国6月CPI 10:00 国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会(国家发展改革委) 22:30 美国至7月4日当周EIA原油库存 | K | 盘前必读 | // 外盘怎么样 // | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | 现价 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44240.76 -165.60 | -0.37% ...
国务院办公厅印发重要意见
证券时报· 2025-07-08 12:48
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the State Council's recent issuance of the "Opinions on Improving the Mechanism for the Normalized Promotion of Key Matters to Efficiently Complete One Thing," aimed at enhancing government efficiency and optimizing the business environment to support high-quality development [1][5]. Summary by Sections Overall Requirements - The initiative is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and aims to enhance government governance capabilities, optimize the business environment, and improve the sense of gain for enterprises and the public [2][6]. Strengthening Key Matter List Management - A comprehensive list of key matters covering the entire lifecycle of business entities and individuals is established, focusing on high-frequency, widely applicable scenarios [3][7]. - Annual key matter lists will be published based on the overall list, with a goal to fully implement these by the end of 2027, transitioning from "can be done" to "easy to do" [3][8]. Promoting Normalized Implementation of Key Matters - Business processes for key matters will be optimized to reduce steps, materials, time, and costs, aiming for integrated handling of related matters [9]. - The construction of an integrated online government service platform will be enhanced to support the implementation of key matters [10]. - Offline service capabilities will be improved, ensuring necessary service channels are available and resources are dynamically allocated [10]. - Efforts will be made to enhance data sharing among government departments to facilitate convenient handling of key matters [11]. Expanding Application Areas of "Efficiently Complete One Thing" - The initiative will explore integrated services for specific groups and industry chains, optimizing the entire process of policy implementation and service delivery [12][13]. - Regulatory efficiency will be improved by promoting collaboration among approval services, regulatory enforcement, and credit management [13][14]. Strengthening Organizational Implementation - Coordination among departments will be emphasized to address challenges faced by local governments in implementing key matters [15]. - Provincial governments will be encouraged to lead the promotion of the initiative, ensuring effective service delivery at the grassroots level [15][16]. - A focus on improving the institutional and standard system surrounding government services will be prioritized [16].
浦东新区发布加快“人工智能+政务服务”改革推动“高效办成一件事”实施方案
news flash· 2025-05-09 02:10
浦东新区人民政府办公室印发《浦东新区加快"人工智能+政务服务"改革推动"高效办成一件事"实施方 案》。其中提到,推进关联事项集成办。以"新增""优化"为牵引抓手,做好"一件事"重点事项改革工 作。高标准落实市规定动作,重点开展"开店一件事"专项改革。深入推进劳动维权"一件事",实施"劳 动解纷+就业帮扶"集成服务。积极探索本区特色"一件事",切实加强"一件事"运营管理,抓好优化改 进,提升服务能级。深化"一业一证"改革,积极探索融合业态准入新模式,加快探索融合业态行业综合 许可证。深入推进人工智能在"一业一证"改革中的应用。(上海市人民政府) ...