行情转向的导火索在于市场对人工智能领域估值泡沫的争论升温，叠加美联储在10月议息会议上释放偏 鹰派信号，令12月维持现行利率水平的概率大幅提升，对全球科技成长板块形成压制。 11月21日，美股跳水拖累全球股市下挫，A股市场亦出现显著调整。上证指数下跌2.45%，失守3900 点，深证成指跌逾3%。 国内方面的行情内部结构性矛盾亦助推了调整。博时基金分析，当前市场处于政策与业绩真空期，三季 报披露后缺乏新催化，叠加年末资金行为加剧风格再平衡，前期领涨的科技行业资金部分流向低位红利 资产。 从板块表现来看，31个申万一级行业全部出现下跌。综合行业跌幅以5.50%的跌幅领跌大盘。有色金 属、有力设备紧随其后，跌幅分别为5.26%、5.17%。电子、通信、钢铁跌幅均超过4%。跌幅最小的为 传媒，下跌0.32%，家用电器下跌0.40%。 港股市场表现低迷。截至收盘，恒生指数下跌2.38%，恒生中国企业指数与恒生科技分别下跌2.45%、 3.21%。 机构人士认为，本轮权益市场的调整呈现全球性特征，主要股指在创出阶段新高后均出现回落。尽管短 期面临调整压力，但普遍认为人工智能产业趋势尚未被证伪，2026年中美科技龙头企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current financial landscape in the U.S. is marked by heightened uncertainty, driven by multiple risks including a government shutdown, concerns over AI-related valuation bubbles, and emerging credit risks within regional banks [3][5][13]. Group 1: Market Signals and Reactions - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $4,322 per ounce, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has fallen below 4%, indicating potential underlying issues within the financial system [1]. - The recent credit issues faced by two lesser-known regional banks have led to a significant market reaction, with over $100 billion in market value evaporating from bank stocks in a single day [7][10]. Group 2: Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown has lasted for two weeks with no resolution in sight, risking becoming the second-longest in U.S. history, which adds to market liquidity management challenges and uncertainty in fiscal policy [3]. - This situation is likely to suppress corporate investment and consumer confidence, further complicating the financial landscape [3]. Group 3: Credit Market Concerns - The U.S. is nearing the end of a historically aggressive interest rate hike cycle, leading to a tightening credit environment and increasing debt repayment pressures for companies [5][16]. - Recent bankruptcies in the automotive parts sector, with debts ranging from $10 billion to $50 billion, highlight vulnerabilities in the credit market [5]. Group 4: Regional Bank Crisis - The credit issues at Zion Bank and Western Alliance Bank have triggered widespread panic, causing significant stock price declines and a broader sell-off in the banking sector [7][9]. - Zion Bank reported a $50 million impairment on over $60 million in revolving credit, while Western Alliance initiated legal action to recover approximately $100 million, leading to respective stock drops of 15% and 13% [8][10]. Group 5: Risk Management Failures - The crisis reflects systemic failures in risk management within regional banks, with specific instances of inadequate oversight on large loans and post-loan asset management [13][16]. - The low-interest rate environment prior to the current high-rate cycle has contributed to a lack of preparedness for rising credit risks, exposing vulnerabilities in the banking sector [16]. Group 6: Market Differentiation and Future Outlook - The financial market is showing signs of differentiation, with larger banks reporting strong earnings while still facing pressure from regional bank risks [20][21]. - The upcoming earnings reports from regional banks will be critical in determining the nature of the crisis and the market's direction, with a focus on potential disclosures related to non-deposit financial institution (NDFI) loan exposures [18][23].

智通财经APP获悉，英国央行周三警告称，如果投资者对人工智能的发展前景或美联储的独立性产生悲 观情绪，全球金融市场可能会出现暴跌。英国央行表示，美国股市的估值在某些指标上与互联网泡沫高 峰期的估值水平相近，并指出美国国债容易受到美联储信誉下降的影响。 英国央行金融政策委员会在季度报告中表示："市场出现大幅回调的风险有所增加。"这是该委员会迄今 为止对由人工智能引发的市场暴跌所带来危险发出的最强烈警告，并补充称，此类冲击对英国金融体系 造成的溢出效应"相当严重"。 金融政策委员会由英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利担任主席，其工作重点在于金融稳定风险。贝利上个月向 英国议会表示，他对美联储独立性的受到威胁感到"非常担忧"。 美联储失去独立性将引发全球动荡 英国央行表示："对美联储信誉度的看法若突然发生重大变化，可能会导致美元资产(包括美国主权债务 市场中的资产)价格大幅调整，从而可能引发更高的波动性、风险溢价以及全球范围内的连锁反应。" 基于过去盈利计算得出的股价估值，是自 25 年前互联网泡沫时期以来最为高的水平，不过从投资者对 未来利润的预期来看，这一估值显得没那么高了。 特朗普总统多次敦促美联储大幅降低利率，并试图 ...