中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，9月份制造业PMI指数继续小幅回升，表明稳增长多项 政策的综合效果进一步显现。生产指数明显回升，采购量指数、生产经营活动预期指数回升，显示企业 生产经营活动有恢复迹象。同时要注意价格类指数均有不同程度回落，表明市场供大于求的情况仍然比 较突出；订单类指数均处荣枯线之下，需求不足问题仍需高度重视。 随着高温多雨极端天气影响消退，叠加扩内需促增长政策继续发力，制造业PMI出现回升，但仍位于荣 枯线之下。 国家统计局9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，较上月上升0.4 个百分点，连续2个月上升。非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 张立群表示，综合看，当前政策推动的经济回升因素与市场引导的经济收缩力量仍处激烈角力之中。要 以力度足够的政府投资有效激活企业投资需求和居民消费需求，使超大规模内需市场尽快摆脱市场引导 的收缩态势，尽快转入持续活跃扩张轨道。 制造业供需改善 9月份制造业部分行业迎来产销旺季，带动制造业整体生产活动加快扩张。生产指数为51.9%，较上月 上升1.1个百分点，连续2个月上升，连续5个月运 ...

Core Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index for August is 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the sector, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 1: Business Activity Indices - The construction industry business activity index is at 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month [1] - The services industry business activity index is at 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month [1] - Several sectors, including rail transport, water transport, air transport, telecommunications, and capital market services, have business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating high levels of activity [1] - Retail and real estate sectors have business activity indices below the critical point, indicating contraction [1] Group 2: New Orders and Demand - The new orders index is at 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, suggesting an improvement in market demand [1] - The construction new orders index is at 40.6%, down 2.1 percentage points from last month [1] - The services new orders index is at 47.7%, up 1.4 percentage points from last month [1] Group 3: Input Prices and Sales Prices - The input prices index is at 50.3%, unchanged from last month, indicating a continued rise in input prices for non-manufacturing businesses [1] - The construction input prices index is at 54.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month [1] - The services input prices index is at 49.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month [1] - The sales prices index is at 48.6%, up 0.7 percentage points from last month, indicating a narrowing decline in sales prices [2] - The construction sales prices index is at 49.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month [2] - The services sales prices index is at 48.5%, up 0.8 percentage points from last month [2] Group 4: Employment and Expectations - The employment index is at 45.6%, unchanged from last month, indicating weak employment conditions in the non-manufacturing sector [2] - The construction employment index is at 43.6%, up 2.7 percentage points from last month [2] - The services employment index is at 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month [2] - The business activity expectations index is at 56.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, reflecting optimism among non-manufacturing businesses regarding market prospects [2] - The construction business activity expectations index is at 51.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month [2] - The services business activity expectations index is at 57.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for August 2025 is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month, suggesting a modest recovery in manufacturing activity [1][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting an overall improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions [1][5]. - The production index stands at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion for the fourth consecutive month [3][6]. - The new orders index is at 49.5%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a minor improvement in market demand [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs are reported at 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, both showing increases and indicating strong performance in these sectors [9]. - The consumer goods industry PMI is at 49.2%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating weak terminal demand [9]. - The high-energy-consuming industries PMI is at 48.2%, reflecting a continuous recovery trend [9]. Group 3: Price Indices and Market Expectations - The main raw material purchase price index is at 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [9][10]. - The production and business activity expectation index is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding future market conditions [10].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In August, China's manufacturing sector showed slight improvement in economic sentiment, while non-manufacturing activities accelerated expansion, indicating a general trend of economic growth [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [3][5]. - The production index and new orders index both showed recovery, with the production index at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [5][7]. - The new orders index improved to 49.5%, reflecting a slight enhancement in market demand [5][6]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.9% and 46.6%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic activity across different enterprise sizes [5]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][18]. - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, marking a year-to-date high, with significant growth in sectors like capital market services and transportation [2][13]. - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, indicating a decline in activity [13][16]. Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 53.3%, and the factory price index increased to 49.1%, both showing a continuous upward trend for three months [1][2]. - The input price index for non-manufacturing remained stable at 50.3%, indicating a general increase in operational costs [16]. Future Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for manufacturing was reported at 53.7%, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturers regarding future market conditions [2][17]. - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing reached 56.2%, indicating optimism about market prospects [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The March manufacturing PMI has returned to a one-year high, raising questions about whether it will repeat last year's pattern of a peak followed by a decline [1] Group 1: Comparison with Last Year - Similar to last year, the March PMI has seasonal increases following the end of the Spring Festival impact, but this year relies more on marginal improvements and enhanced "scientific content" rather than a short-term pulse effect [2] - The Longjiang Business School BCI for March is at 54.8%, higher than last year's 52.1%, and the EPMI has seen a significant month-on-month increase of 10.6 percentage points, marking the highest growth rate in two years [2] Group 2: PMI Performance Analysis - The new orders index for March PMI recorded 51.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points, becoming the largest driving factor for the manufacturing PMI [4] - The production index's month-on-month growth is only 0.1 percentage points, indicating that production recovery is lagging behind demand, possibly due to prior production being at sufficient levels [4] Group 3: Export and Demand Insights - The new export orders index for March PMI has increased by 0.4 percentage points, indicating ongoing efforts to "seize exports" [7] - Small enterprises have shown the most significant increase in PMI, with a month-on-month growth of 3.3 percentage points, contrasting with large enterprises' decline of 1.3 percentage points and medium enterprises' increase of 0.7 percentage points [7] Group 4: Sustainability of Demand Recovery - Despite positive signals from the March PMI, there are underlying risks, including weak performance in two major price indicators, with the raw material purchase price index at 49.8% and the factory price index at 47.9% [9] - The import index for March PMI is at 47.5%, reflecting a significant month-on-month decline of 2.0 percentage points, indicating insufficient domestic demand [12] - There is a prevailing cautious sentiment among enterprises, as the production activity expectation index has decreased from 54.5% in February to 53.8% in March, and the employment index has also declined [12]