Manufacturing PMI Insights - In June, China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% from 49.5%, with new orders and purchasing indices returning above 50%[1] - The new orders index was at 50.2% (previously 49.8%), while the production index remained above 50% at 51.0%[1] - The purchasing quantity index increased to 50.2% from 47.6%, indicating improved supply-side conditions[1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - New export orders index stood at 47.7% (previously 47.5%), and the import index improved to 47.8% from 47.1%[1] - Raw material inventory index was at 48.0% (previously 47.4%), and finished goods inventory index was at 48.1% (previously 46.5%) indicating a decline in inventory levels[1] Price and Employment Trends - The purchasing price index was at 48.4% (previously 46.9%), while the factory price index decreased to 46.2% from 44.7%[1] - The employment index for manufacturing was at 47.9% (previously 48.1%), reflecting a slight decline in workforce levels[2] Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - June's construction PMI was at 52.8% (previously 51.0%), and the services PMI was at 50.1% (previously 50.2%) indicating stable growth in these sectors[2] - New orders indices for construction and services were at 44.9% and 46.9% respectively, showing slight improvements[2] Industrial Performance Metrics - From January to May, industrial enterprises' revenue growth slowed to 2.7% (previously 3.2%), while profits turned negative at -1.1% (previously 1.4%) for the same period[3] - In May, profits dropped by 9.1% year-on-year, a significant decline compared to the previous year's growth of 3.0%[3] Investment Recommendations - The rebound in new orders and purchasing indices suggests potential recovery, influenced by global uncertainties and preemptive actions by businesses[4] - The performance of price and employment indices may provide more significant signals for macroeconomic recovery[4]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - The production index and new orders index are both above 50%, suggesting a recovery in both production and demand[4] - The new export orders index has also shown a slight increase, reflecting a positive trend in external demand[4] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The increase in June's PMI is supported by more working days compared to May, which historically correlates positively with PMI readings[4][11] - External uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies, have decreased, alleviating downward pressure on the PMI[5] - Despite the improvements, the PMI remains below the neutral line, indicating ongoing structural risks in the economy[6] Group 3: Sector Performance - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises in June are 51.2%, 48.6%, and 47.3% respectively, with small enterprises showing a decline of 2.0 percentage points[6] - Price indices within the PMI have risen but remain below the neutral line, indicating continued pressure on pricing power due to tariff uncertainties[7] - The construction sector's PMI improved to 52.8%, while the services PMI slightly decreased to 50.1%, highlighting a divergence in sector performance[8][22]

报告导读： 2025年前5月新增专项债发行16336亿元，同比增长40.7%，有望带动基建实物工 作量回稳。5月建筑业PMI保持扩张，各地工程项目施工继续加快。 前 5 月新增专项债发行加速，有望带动基建实物工作量回稳。 (1)2025 年前 5 月新增专项债发行 16336 亿 元，同比增 40.7% ，发行节奏加快。从月度分布看， 1~5 月单月分别发行 2048 、 3920 、 3635 、 2301 、 4432 亿元，分布较为平均。 (2)2025 年前 5 月发行特殊再融资专项债共 16291 亿元，发行节奏明显前 置。从月度分布看， 1~5 月单月分别发行 1719 、 7823 、 3830 、 2617 、 302 亿元，发行主要集中在一 季度。 2024 年集中在 10 、 11 、 12 月共 21826 亿元， 2023 年在 10 、 11 月共发行 4967 亿元。 (3)2025 前 5 月城投债净融资额 -2248 亿元 (2024 年同期净融资额 -1891 亿元 ) 。从月度分布看， 1~5 月单月净融 资 -693 、 541 、 -617 、 -898 、 -582 ...

英国4月建筑业活动连续第四个月下滑 金十数据5月7日讯，周三，一项行业调查显示，英国4月建筑业活动连续第四个月萎缩，因新工程减少 而成本压力居高不下，这突显出英国经济面临的不利因素。标普全球英国4月建筑业PMI从3月的46.4小 升至46.6，但仍低于荣枯分界线50，自今年年初以来一直如此。"国内经济逆风加上客户犹豫不决，导 致缺乏新工作来更替已完成的合同，"标普全球市场情报经济主管Tim Moore说。商业房地产工程量以 2020年5月以来的最快速度下降，建筑公司将此归咎于客户对经济前景更加紧张。采购活动创近五年来 最大降幅，员工人数连续第四个月下降，不过降幅比3月放缓。预计英国央行周四发布新的季度预测时 将下调2026年的经济增长展望，同时将利率下调25个基点至4.25%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The March manufacturing PMI has returned to a one-year high, raising questions about whether it will repeat last year's pattern of a peak followed by a decline [1] Group 1: Comparison with Last Year - Similar to last year, the March PMI has seasonal increases following the end of the Spring Festival impact, but this year relies more on marginal improvements and enhanced "scientific content" rather than a short-term pulse effect [2] - The Longjiang Business School BCI for March is at 54.8%, higher than last year's 52.1%, and the EPMI has seen a significant month-on-month increase of 10.6 percentage points, marking the highest growth rate in two years [2] Group 2: PMI Performance Analysis - The new orders index for March PMI recorded 51.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points, becoming the largest driving factor for the manufacturing PMI [4] - The production index's month-on-month growth is only 0.1 percentage points, indicating that production recovery is lagging behind demand, possibly due to prior production being at sufficient levels [4] Group 3: Export and Demand Insights - The new export orders index for March PMI has increased by 0.4 percentage points, indicating ongoing efforts to "seize exports" [7] - Small enterprises have shown the most significant increase in PMI, with a month-on-month growth of 3.3 percentage points, contrasting with large enterprises' decline of 1.3 percentage points and medium enterprises' increase of 0.7 percentage points [7] Group 4: Sustainability of Demand Recovery - Despite positive signals from the March PMI, there are underlying risks, including weak performance in two major price indicators, with the raw material purchase price index at 49.8% and the factory price index at 47.9% [9] - The import index for March PMI is at 47.5%, reflecting a significant month-on-month decline of 2.0 percentage points, indicating insufficient domestic demand [12] - There is a prevailing cautious sentiment among enterprises, as the production activity expectation index has decreased from 54.5% in February to 53.8% in March, and the employment index has also declined [12]