每经AI快讯，10月6日消息，英国9月建筑业PMI为46.2，预期45.9，前值45.5。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction industry, indicating a positive outlook for the industry's fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The construction industry's PMI for August is reported at 49.1, reflecting a significant decline of 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a downward trend in industry sentiment [1]. - The construction PMI has been on a downward trajectory since May 2024, falling below the threshold of 50 in November, with a slight recovery in December and minor increases in February and June 2025, before dropping again in August to the lowest level since 2019 [1]. - Key sub-indices of the construction PMI include new orders at 40.6, business activity expectations at 51.7, input prices at 54.6, sales prices at 49.7, and employment index at 43.6, highlighting a persistent weakness in new orders despite stable business activity expectations [1]. Industry Scale - The construction industry comprises 163 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,894.2 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,830.6 billion [5]. Industry Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry index over the past month, six months, and twelve months is reported at 2.1%, 7.2%, and 29.7% respectively, while the relative performance shows declines of -8.9%, -9.1%, and -6.5% [6].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In June, China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% from 49.5%, with new orders and purchasing indices returning above 50%[1] - The new orders index was at 50.2% (previously 49.8%), while the production index remained above 50% at 51.0%[1] - The purchasing quantity index increased to 50.2% from 47.6%, indicating improved supply-side conditions[1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - New export orders index stood at 47.7% (previously 47.5%), and the import index improved to 47.8% from 47.1%[1] - Raw material inventory index was at 48.0% (previously 47.4%), and finished goods inventory index was at 48.1% (previously 46.5%) indicating a decline in inventory levels[1] Price and Employment Trends - The purchasing price index was at 48.4% (previously 46.9%), while the factory price index decreased to 46.2% from 44.7%[1] - The employment index for manufacturing was at 47.9% (previously 48.1%), reflecting a slight decline in workforce levels[2] Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - June's construction PMI was at 52.8% (previously 51.0%), and the services PMI was at 50.1% (previously 50.2%) indicating stable growth in these sectors[2] - New orders indices for construction and services were at 44.9% and 46.9% respectively, showing slight improvements[2] Industrial Performance Metrics - From January to May, industrial enterprises' revenue growth slowed to 2.7% (previously 3.2%), while profits turned negative at -1.1% (previously 1.4%) for the same period[3] - In May, profits dropped by 9.1% year-on-year, a significant decline compared to the previous year's growth of 3.0%[3] Investment Recommendations - The rebound in new orders and purchasing indices suggests potential recovery, influenced by global uncertainties and preemptive actions by businesses[4] - The performance of price and employment indices may provide more significant signals for macroeconomic recovery[4]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - The production index and new orders index are both above 50%, suggesting a recovery in both production and demand[4] - The new export orders index has also shown a slight increase, reflecting a positive trend in external demand[4] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The increase in June's PMI is supported by more working days compared to May, which historically correlates positively with PMI readings[4][11] - External uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies, have decreased, alleviating downward pressure on the PMI[5] - Despite the improvements, the PMI remains below the neutral line, indicating ongoing structural risks in the economy[6] Group 3: Sector Performance - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises in June are 51.2%, 48.6%, and 47.3% respectively, with small enterprises showing a decline of 2.0 percentage points[6] - Price indices within the PMI have risen but remain below the neutral line, indicating continued pressure on pricing power due to tariff uncertainties[7] - The construction sector's PMI improved to 52.8%, while the services PMI slightly decreased to 50.1%, highlighting a divergence in sector performance[8][22]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of special bond issuance in the first five months of 2025 is expected to stabilize the physical workload in infrastructure construction, supported by a positive trend in the construction PMI [1][2]. Group 1: Special Bond Issuance - In the first five months of 2025, the issuance of special bonds reached 1.6336 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%, indicating a faster issuance pace [2]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds totaled 1.6291 trillion yuan, with a significant concentration in the first quarter [2]. - The net financing amount of urban investment bonds in the first five months was -224.8 billion yuan, showing a decline compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Construction Industry Performance - The construction PMI stood at 51.0%, indicating continued expansion despite a 0.9 percentage point decrease from the previous month [3]. - The civil engineering activity index rose to 62.3%, reflecting an acceleration in project construction across various regions [3]. - The new orders index for the construction industry increased to 43.3%, while the input price index rose to 48.0%, suggesting a slight improvement in market conditions [3]. Group 3: Export and Price Trends - Exports in the first five months of 2025 reached 1.48 trillion USD, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with May exports at 316.1 billion USD, up 4.8% [4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, with building material prices declining, which may help reduce costs in the construction sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The UK construction industry activity has contracted for the fourth consecutive month in April, primarily due to a decrease in new projects and persistent cost pressures, indicating adverse factors facing the UK economy [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The S&P Global UK Construction PMI rose slightly from 46.4 in March to 46.6 in April, but remains below the neutral threshold of 50, continuing a trend since the beginning of the year [1] - The commercial real estate workload has declined at the fastest rate since May 2020, attributed to clients' increased concerns about the economic outlook [1] Group 2: Employment and Procurement - Procurement activity experienced the largest drop in nearly five years, while employment numbers have decreased for the fourth consecutive month, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to March [1] Group 3: Economic Forecast - The Bank of England is expected to revise down its economic growth outlook for 2026 and reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% in its upcoming quarterly forecast [1]

Core Viewpoint - The March manufacturing PMI has returned to a one-year high, raising questions about whether it will repeat last year's pattern of a peak followed by a decline [1] Group 1: Comparison with Last Year - Similar to last year, the March PMI has seasonal increases following the end of the Spring Festival impact, but this year relies more on marginal improvements and enhanced "scientific content" rather than a short-term pulse effect [2] - The Longjiang Business School BCI for March is at 54.8%, higher than last year's 52.1%, and the EPMI has seen a significant month-on-month increase of 10.6 percentage points, marking the highest growth rate in two years [2] Group 2: PMI Performance Analysis - The new orders index for March PMI recorded 51.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points, becoming the largest driving factor for the manufacturing PMI [4] - The production index's month-on-month growth is only 0.1 percentage points, indicating that production recovery is lagging behind demand, possibly due to prior production being at sufficient levels [4] Group 3: Export and Demand Insights - The new export orders index for March PMI has increased by 0.4 percentage points, indicating ongoing efforts to "seize exports" [7] - Small enterprises have shown the most significant increase in PMI, with a month-on-month growth of 3.3 percentage points, contrasting with large enterprises' decline of 1.3 percentage points and medium enterprises' increase of 0.7 percentage points [7] Group 4: Sustainability of Demand Recovery - Despite positive signals from the March PMI, there are underlying risks, including weak performance in two major price indicators, with the raw material purchase price index at 49.8% and the factory price index at 47.9% [9] - The import index for March PMI is at 47.5%, reflecting a significant month-on-month decline of 2.0 percentage points, indicating insufficient domestic demand [12] - There is a prevailing cautious sentiment among enterprises, as the production activity expectation index has decreased from 54.5% in February to 53.8% in March, and the employment index has also declined [12]