美国，作为全球最大经济体，竟然也成了"欠钱不还"的"老赖"？这听起来是不是很不可思议？但这确实是事实。根据美国财政部的数据，截至2024年年初， 美国的国债总额已达到34万亿美元。 要知道，2023年美国的GDP总量才27.37万亿美元，这意味着，如果美国所有人都拼命省吃俭用，一年都不花钱，他们也无法偿还这笔债务。而且，美国政 府还计划用今年GDP的3.1%，即8700亿美元，来支付债务利息。这个利息数额竟然超过了2024年美国的国防开支！这不禁让人疑惑：美国是怎么支撑起自 己的庞大军事力量，甚至养活11艘航母的呢？ 那么，为什么美国的债务如此庞大？而且尽管债务不断增加，美国的GDP却依然在增长呢？接下来我们一起了解一下美国如何利用国债拉动经济增长。 美国国债的现状 国债，是指国家政府通过发行债券来筹集资金，债券的购买者根据国家的信誉，信任政府在规定时间内还本付息。因此，国债的安全性极高，是世界上最可 靠的投资工具之一。美国政府每年都会通过国债融资，且不仅限于国内投资者，全球各国也都参与购买。实际上，美国每年都会发行大约5000至6000亿美元 的国债，其中中国和日本是美国的最大债权国。 长期以来，中国曾持有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe trust crisis regarding its national debt, with long-term bond rates reaching historical highs and a significant drop in its status as the world's largest creditor nation [4][5][6]. Group 1: Japan's Debt Crisis - Japan's 30-year and 40-year bond rates have surged to 2.999% and 3.336%, respectively, marking a historical high and indicating a lack of bidders [3]. - The country has lost its position as the world's largest creditor for the first time since 1991, with its net external assets reaching 533.05 trillion yen, a 12.9% year-on-year increase, but still surpassed by Germany's $3.95 trillion [5][6]. - Japan's finance minister stated that the growth in net external assets should not be seen as a significant change in Japan's international status [9]. Group 2: Historical Context of Japan's Creditor Status - Japan maintained its status as the world's largest creditor for 33 years due to its strong manufacturing and export economy, which generated substantial foreign exchange [16]. - The post-Korean War era saw Japan become a supply base for the U.S. military, leading to a surge in industrial demand and foreign exchange [20][21]. - Japan's automotive industry rapidly expanded from virtually zero in 1955 to becoming the world's largest by 1980, significantly contributing to its foreign investment capabilities [24]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Dynamics - Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates and minimal inflation over the past two decades, contrasting with global trends of rising prices [34][36]. - The lack of inflation suggests that the money supply in Japan has not significantly increased, leading to speculation that much of the printed yen has been used for foreign investments [42]. - The Japanese foreign exchange market accounts for 35%-40% of global retail forex trading, with many investors borrowing yen to invest abroad [46]. Group 4: Future Implications of Debt and Currency Policy - Japan's public debt is projected to reach 234.9% of GDP in 2024, with a significant portion of debt held domestically [65]. - The country has been caught in a cycle of borrowing to pay off existing debt, with over 60% of new debt issued since 2012 being used to refinance old debt [68]. - The potential for rising interest rates could lead to a significant depreciation of the yen, impacting both domestic and international investment strategies [90][94]. Group 5: Economic Measures and Public Response - The Japanese government has initiated measures to counteract the effects of yen depreciation, including energy subsidies and calls for wage increases [109]. - Average wage increases are projected to reach 5.08% in 2024, reflecting a concerted effort to mitigate the impact of inflation on citizens [110][111]. - These strategies aim to balance the need for economic growth and debt management while addressing the potential negative effects on the populace [113].

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around President Trump's push for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and the stock market, especially after recent gains in the U.S. stock market following a trade agreement between China and the U.S. [1][3] - Trump has been consistently urging Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to lower rates, indicating a strong desire to boost the capital markets, which he often uses as a measure of his administration's success [3][5] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, which poses a significant challenge for Trump's goal of reducing the fiscal deficit [5][7] Group 2 - Elon Musk has previously warned about the rising national debt, suggesting that the U.S. is heading towards bankruptcy if no action is taken to address the deficit [5][7] - Despite Musk's warnings, Wall Street has largely ignored the potential risks associated with the growing debt, continuing to invest heavily in the U.S. capital markets [5][7] - The U.S. dollar remains a dominant global currency, providing the Federal Reserve with the ability to manage debt without immediate concerns of bankruptcy, although this approach of borrowing to stimulate the economy may not be sustainable in the long term [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion as of the end of 2024, representing a nearly 40% increase since 2020, with an annual growth rate of 9%, significantly outpacing GDP growth [1][3] - The U.S. government has implemented three large-scale stimulus packages totaling $5 trillion since the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a persistent increase in the fiscal deficit [1][3] - Interest payments on U.S. federal debt are projected to reach $882 billion in 2024, exceeding the defense budget for the first time, which equates to the cost of burning 20 F-35 fighter jets daily [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing a political deadlock, with the Republican Party demanding $4.5 trillion in spending cuts over the next decade, while the Democratic Party blames the debt surge on a $2 trillion stimulus package from the Trump administration [3][5] - International rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. credit outlook, with Moody's predicting a loss of 7 million jobs and a 4% economic contraction if a default lasts for six weeks [3][5] Group 3 - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. debt from a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013 to $759 billion, while simultaneously increasing its gold reserves to 2,300 tons, becoming the world's largest gold buyer for 18 consecutive months [5][6] - The global economic landscape is shifting as countries accelerate de-dollarization efforts, with the share of the U.S. dollar in global reserves dropping from 73% in 2001 to 58%, the lowest in 25 years [6][8] Group 4 - The crisis is fundamentally a challenge to U.S. hegemony, as countries like Russia and India are increasing their gold reserves and promoting alternative currency settlement systems [6][8] - China is positioning itself as a responsible global leader by proposing initiatives for emerging market infrastructure and expanding cooperation among BRICS nations, contrasting with the U.S. approach of zero-sum games [8]