英国金融时报援引知情人士称，瑞银要求顾问停止向许多客户推销结构化外汇产品，名为Range Target Profit Forwards (RTPFs)。在美国总统特朗普4月宣布加征关税导致美元大幅波动后，一些客户蒙受损 失，该行已向客户支付了100多笔"信誉"款项。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in Q2 is expected to slow significantly, with a projected increase of only 5%, marking the slowest growth since Q4 2023, down from 13% in Q1 [1][2][4]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts have downgraded earnings expectations due to tariff policies and weaker economic data, with a 4% reduction in Q2 forecasts, exceeding the historical average of 3% [4]. - Among the 11 sectors, 6 are expected to see year-over-year growth, led by communication services and information technology, while 5 sectors, including energy, are projected to decline [2][6]. Early Reporting Performance - Early reporting companies have shown strong performance, with 71% exceeding EPS expectations and 81% surpassing sales expectations among the 21 S&P 500 companies that have reported [4][5]. - The current forecast suggests a slight EPS beat of 2%, reaching $64, which represents a 6% year-over-year increase [4]. Sector Analysis - Technology and communication services are expected to drive earnings growth, with a combined growth rate of 20%. Excluding these sectors, S&P 500 earnings growth is projected to be negative 3% [6]. - The growth range for the overall market is expected to be narrow, with negative growth anticipated when excluding technology and communication services [5]. Guidance Trends - Recent trends indicate an improvement in earnings guidance, with the three-month guidance ratio returning to the average level of 0.8 [9]. - Approximately 30% of S&P 500 companies provided annual EPS guidance, a significant increase from 10% during the pandemic [11]. Tariff Impact - Tariff uncertainties remain a key volatility factor, with estimates suggesting a potential 5% direct impact on S&P 500 revenues if no mitigation measures are taken [11]. - Analysts are divided on the ability of companies to pass on tariff costs, with 25% expecting price increases to cover most tariff hikes, while 21% believe companies will struggle to raise prices [11]. Key Themes for Investors - Investors are advised to focus on four key themes: capital expenditure guidance, layoffs, foreign exchange impacts, and the influence of the "Big Beautiful Bill" [12][22]. - The proportion of CEOs planning to increase capital expenditures has dropped to 28%, the lowest level since the pandemic began [12]. Foreign Exchange and Economic Indicators - A 10% depreciation of the dollar is estimated to boost S&P 500 EPS by 3%, with foreign exchange providing a 60-70 basis point benefit in Q2 [18]. - The performance of large tech companies remains strong, with significant capital expenditure growth expected to continue [15][17].

Commodity Prices - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1366.054, down by 12.720 or 0.92% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1103.272, down by 12.866 or 1.15% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3302.700, down by 8.300 or 0.25% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.835, down by 0.090 or 0.24% [2] Foreign Exchange Rates - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.170, down by 0.16% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.358, down by 0.07% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 146.636, up by 0.05% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.652, down by 0.08% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.796, up by 0.05% [3] Cryptocurrency Prices - Bitcoin is priced at 108976.260, up by 53.280 or 0.05% [4] - Litecoin is priced at 88.000, up by 0.240 or 0.27% [4] - Ethereum is priced at 2621.960, up by 6.710 or 0.26% [4] - Ripple is priced at 2.356, up by 0.045 or 1.96% [4] Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is 3.895 [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is 3.974, down by 0.013 or 0.33% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.405, down by 0.011 or 0.25% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is 4.930, down by 0.016 or 0.32% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.635, up by 0.02% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.637, down by 0.007 or 0.26% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.356, down by 0.004 or 0.12% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.554, down by 0.007 or 0.20% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.514, up by 0.028 or 1.88% [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the confirmation of the extension of the tariff suspension period by Trump, affecting 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, which will face new tax rates [1] - Current market sentiment shows that over 60% of gold positions are long, indicating bullish sentiment in the gold market [1] - The silver market is experiencing a tug-of-war between long and short positions, suggesting mixed sentiment among investors [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a long position ratio of 70% and a short position ratio of 30% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a long position ratio of 76% and a short position ratio of 24% [3] - The Nasdaq Index indicates a long position ratio of 83% and a short position ratio of 17% [3] - The Dow Jones Index has a long position ratio of 61% and a short position ratio of 39% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a long position ratio of 43% and a short position ratio of 57% [3] - The DAX 40 Index has a long position ratio of 27% and a short position ratio of 73% [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a long position ratio of 27% and a short position ratio of 73% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a long position ratio of 18% and a short position ratio of 82% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a long position ratio of 7% and a short position ratio of 93% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a long position ratio of 7% and a short position ratio of 93% [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a long position ratio of 20% and a short position ratio of 80% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a long position ratio of 25% and a short position ratio of 75% [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a long position ratio of 32% and a short position ratio of 68% [3] - The USD/CAD pair indicates a long position ratio of 41% and a short position ratio of 59% [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a long position ratio of 10% and a short position ratio of 90% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair shows a long position ratio of 73% and a short position ratio of 27% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair has a long position ratio of 60% and a short position ratio of 40% [4] - The CAD/JPY pair indicates a long position ratio of 63% and a short position ratio of 37% [4] - The NZD/USD pair shows a long position ratio of 63% and a short position ratio of 37% [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a long position ratio of 71% and a short position ratio of 29% [4] - The USD/CNH pair indicates a long position ratio of 35% and a short position ratio of 65% [4]

Core Viewpoint - There may be unexpected negative news regarding foreign exchange, which analysts might not fully account for in their estimates [1] Group 1 - Ecofi stock fund manager Karen Georges highlights potential unforeseen negative developments in the foreign exchange market [1] - Analysts' estimates may not completely incorporate the impact of currency fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - South Korean officials will discuss issues related to foreign exchange and defense spending separately [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index has recovered the 24,000-point mark, reaching a new high since March 21 [1] - The market sentiment index from GAIN Capital indicates that 61% of participants are bullish on the Hang Seng Index [1] Group 2 - The sentiment data shows that 39% of participants are bullish on the S&P 500 Index, while 76% are bearish [3] - For the Nasdaq Index, 80% of participants are bullish, and 20% are bearish [3] - The Dow Jones Index has 24% bullish and 76% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows 38% bullish and 62% bearish sentiment [3] - The DAX 40 Index has a significant 17% bullish sentiment compared to 83% bearish [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has 39% bullish and 61% bearish sentiment [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a strong bullish sentiment at 81% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has 14% bullish and 86% bearish sentiment [4] - The GBP/USD pair has 74% bullish sentiment [4] - The USD/JPY pair shows 35% bullish and 65% bearish sentiment [4]

以下文章来源于格隆 ，作者万连山 格隆 . 一个游走于资本市场与佛祖之间的浪子。我可以生，可以死，我大笑，由天决定！ 本文来自微信公众号： 格隆 （ID：guru-lama） ，作者：万连山，数据支持：勾股大数据，题图来 自：AI生成 最近关于日本的重大新闻不少。 首先是日债，30年、40年国债利率分别飙升至2.999%、3.336%，双双创历史新高，且连续多日无人 出价。 这些异常现象， 标志着日本正遭遇自1999年基准国债制度建立以来，最严峻的信任危机。 其次， 自1991年以来，日本首次失去全球最大债权国地位。 5月27日，日本财务省公布数据，截至2024年底，日本对外净资产余额再创新高、达到533.05万亿日 元，同比增长12.9%，但仍被德国以3.95万亿美元超过。 作为欧洲火车头，德国2024年商品贸易顺差高达2487亿欧元，辐射"欧洲单一市场"超过5亿消费者， 并吸引了整个欧盟约40%的跨境投资。 很明显，并不是日本弱，而是去年的德国太强。 所以5月27日，日本财务大臣加藤胜信在采访中表示： "鉴于日本的净外部资产也一直在稳步增长，不应仅凭这一排名被视为日本的国际地位发生重大变化的 标志。" 但 ...

韩国央行行长李昌镛：并不太担心外汇对通胀的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese top foreign exchange official, Jun Mimura, stated that foreign exchange rates should be determined by the market [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the importance of market forces in setting foreign exchange rates, indicating a preference for a free-floating currency system [1]