| 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 表 | 1：基本面数据 | | | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 17, 155 | 17.125 | +30 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16, 990 | 17, 080 | -90 | | | | 成交量(手) | 218, 827 | 269, 900 | -51, 073 | | | (05合约) | 持企量 (手) | 174, 215 | 172, 951 | +1.264 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 114. 470 | 114. 070 | +400 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 26. 693 | 24, 124 | +2, 569 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -205 | -175 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas raw material prices are continuously falling, weakening the bottom support for natural rubber (NR). The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of NR remains unchanged, and the downstream production and sales pressure persists [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The trading volume was 251,199 lots, an increase of 34,844 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 178,976 lots, a decrease of 7,467 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 109,870 tons, a decrease of 20 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 37,207 lots, a decrease of 2,487 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was -220 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was -870 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 45 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,140 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the STR20 was 1,900 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SMR20 was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber also declined. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber, also decreased [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of NR in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, with a growth rate of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, with a growth rate of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The inbound and outbound rates of sample bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses in Qingdao increased to varying degrees [2][3] - Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively large proportion of European exports have relatively sufficient foreign trade orders recently, and their production is maintained at a relatively high level. However, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, the domestic sales are slow, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high [3]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, higher than market expectations, further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels, and increased the 2025/26 ending inventory estimate to 350 million bushels, with the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio rising to 8.2%. The report also expected Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 178 million tons, higher than market expectations, kept Argentina's soybean production unchanged, and raised the global soybean ending inventory to 124.1 million tons, all of which were bearish. The US soybean quarterly inventory report showed that the December quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, higher than market expectations, also bearish [10]. - In the short term, there is no obvious weather - driven speculation. With Brazil starting the harvest, the impact of the January harvest pressure on Brazil's CNF premiums should be monitored. The USDA report is bearish, and the harvest pressure under the South American bumper harvest is expected to be gradually reflected in Brazil's CNF premiums. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in China brings structural issues, which may change the downstream sentiment before the Spring Festival, supporting the pre - holiday spot price trend. However, the uncertainty of China's soybean selling policy may affect the March - May spread [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis Data - On January 14th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) in Dalian was 469, down 10. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Tianjin was 429, down 10; in Rizhao was 369, down 30; in Zhangjiagang was 369, down 10; in Dongguan was 349, down 10; in Zhanjiang was 419; in Fangchenggang was 409, down 10. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 92. M3 - 5 was 358, up 2; RM5 - 9 was - 67, down 3 [4]. 3.2. Inventory Data - The report presents data on China's port soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and the inventory of major oil mills' soybean meal in China from 2020 - 2026 [5][6][7]. 3.3.开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The report shows data on the operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills in China from 2020 - 2026, as well as downstream delivery volume data from 2019 - 2026 [8][9]. 3.4. Spread and International Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 652, and the futures spread of the main contract was 462. The price difference data also includes the 2025 soybean CNF premium trend chart and the 2025 imported soybean futures gross profit. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.9421, up 5, and the futures crushing profit was 179 yuan/ton [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the adjustment of the planting area of US soybeans and US corn in the planting area report at the end of the month. The tense situation in the Middle East, the rise of international crude oil, and the strong rise of soybean oil suppress the performance of the soybean meal futures market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - From June to August in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The purchase progress of ships is 100% in June, 95.9% in July, and 55.2% in August, but it is slow after September. The good rate of US soybeans has risen to 68%, and the weather in the production areas is suitable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [7][8]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before September; the inventory of poultry remains at a high level. The cost - performance of soybean meal has significantly improved, and the downstream transactions have increased and the pick - up has improved [8]. Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly and is still at a low level. The inventory accumulation rate is lower than expected, but it is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation in late June. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased slightly and is still at a low level [8]. Price and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the basis of spot prices, as well as the spread between different contracts [6][7]. Other Data - The report also includes data on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the CNF premium of soybeans, the profit of soybean crushing on the futures market, the inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the soybean crushing volume and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills [7].