甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/08/2 6 801 2275 2290 2520 2480 2500 2680 263 322 3 -142 -1237 2025/08/2 7 801 2260 2268 2510 2480 2525 2663 261 322 -8 -135 -1237 2025/08/2 8 801 2235 2255 2505 2480 2525 2655 259 322 1 -140 -1237 2025/08/2 9 801 2222 2248 2505 2480 2525 2650 257 322 9 -145 -1237 2025/09/0 1 801 2230 2233 2488 2480 2525 2645 257 322 9 -140 -1237 日度变化 0 8 -15 -17 0 0 -5 0 0 0 5 0 观点 仍是交易港口压力传导到内地得逻辑，内地后期有季节性备货需求+联泓新装置备货增量，但是港口会持续性形 成倒流冲击 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Release Date: July 25, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factors realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - Plastic: For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [8]. - PP: Polypropylene inventory in upstream and mid - stream is decreasing. The basis is +100, and non - standard price difference is neutral. Import profit is around - 500, and export is good. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract may face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which can be alleviated by strong exports or more PDH device maintenance [8]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening. Attention should be paid to commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of江苏现货 increased by 51 to 2468, and the price of华南现货 increased by 43 to 2448. The主力基差 decreased by 8 to - 20, and the盘面MTO profit remained unchanged at - 1237 [2]. Plastic Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of东北亚乙烯 remained at 820. The price of华北LL increased by 50 to 7230, and the price of华东LL decreased by 10 to 7315. The主力期货 price increased by 97 to 7385 [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of山东丙烯 decreased by 50 to 6250. The price of华东PP increased by 10 to 7100, and the主力期货 price increased by 85 to 7181 [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the price of西北电石 remained at 2250, and the price of山东烧碱 remained at 842. The price of电石法 - 华东 decreased by 10 to 5060, and the基差 (高端交割品) increased by 10 to - 80 [10][11].

Report Overview - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report analyzes the market conditions of various black industries including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading suggestions based on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][3][4] Rebar Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 139 (-16) [1] - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The demand seasonally weakens over time. Long - process steel mills have good profits, while short - process ones have poor profits. Rebar production has declined for two consecutive weeks, and inventory depletion has slowed down. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and there may be a slight inventory build - up later [1] - **Price Forecast**: The current rebar futures price has fallen close to the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. There is a low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short term, and the supply - demand has turned loose. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1] Iron Ore Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton (-6), the Platts 62% index was 95.20 dollars/ton (-0.90), and the PBF basis was 61 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - **Supply - Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,839.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104.04. The daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11. The continuous price reduction of coal in the raw material end has maintained steel production, so iron ore is relatively strong. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline [1] - **Price Forecast**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news, with little impact from fundamentals. Technically, the long - short forces are not obvious. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] Coking Coal Analysis - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have reduced production due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable. The online auction of Mongolian coking coal has failed continuously, and the downstream procurement is still cautious [3] - **Demand**: After the continuous price cuts of coke, the market pessimism has increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills have weak procurement enthusiasm, and the demand for coking coal is insufficient [3] - **Price Forecast**: The supply - demand of the coking coal market remains loose. The short - term price center may continue to move down, and it is necessary to focus on the improvement of coke demand, import coal price fluctuations, and coal mine inventory depletion [3] Coke Analysis - **Supply**: Although coke enterprises are under shipment pressure and inventory is accumulating, most still have some profit margins, and the supply reduction is limited. After the third price cut, some enterprises may adjust production, and supply is expected to shrink [4] - **Demand**: The steel market is in the off - season, terminal demand is difficult to improve, iron ore production growth is weak, and the demand for coke is limited [4] - **Price Forecast**: The coke market fundamentals are loose, and the short - term price may continue to be weak. It is necessary to focus on steel terminal demand, coke enterprise profit changes, and coking coal price transmission [4] Industry News - On June 9, local time, Chinese and US officials held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London [7] - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreasing by 10.2% [7] - Baowu Steel's ex - factory prices in July are expected to remain flat [7] - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 10% [7] - In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% [7]